Tuesday Front Page Picks (July 17)

Willie Bee · 07-17-07, 10:27 AM

Cubs -135 to slay Barry & Giants

Game Time: 07/17/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

The Cubs and Giants are heading in opposite directions, as Chicago is 26-12 the last 38 games while the Giants are now 13½ games out of first, so play the Cubs.

Barry Bonds is in an 0-20 slump, as the San Francisco Giants reside at the bottom of the National League West.

They have now lost five straight games and trail the first place Los Angeles Dodgers by 13½ games. San Francisco is hitting a collective .250, which is 27th in the Major Leagues, and they are not only bad, they are old. Last night they had their best pitcher on the mound and still lost, as the bullpen suffered a meltdown.

While I cannot give you one good reason to bet the Giants tonight or in the near future, I can give you plenty of reasons to back the red-hot Cubs, which I am doing today. They have won 16 of their last 20 and are 26-12 in their last 38 games. They are now five games above .500 and closing in fast on the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central. Chicago is 20-8 in their last 28 when favored and that’s the role we find them in today.

Barry Zito, one of the biggest free-agent flops this year, goes for Giants. Zito is 6-9 overall, but just 0-1 in his last three starts with a 5.29 ERA. Sean Marshall goes for the Cubs and the team is 6-3 when he’s on the hill. No matter how you slice it, this game is all Cubs.

Free Pick: Cubs -135

Willie Bee · 07-17-07, 10:29 AM

Texas Rangers +145 to flunk the A’s

Game Time: 07/17/2007 10:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Chad Gaudin may have over-achieved in the first half, and his descent to earth began last game in Minnesota. Look for Texas to hand the A’s their ninth straight loss.

We successfully faded Chad Gaudin of the Oakland Athletics in his first start after the All-Star break, predicting that he would crash back to earth after pitching over his head the first half of the year.

Well, he proceeded to get roughed up for five earned runs in just four innings at Minnesota that night, and here he is turning up as a big favorite again tonight. Gaudin still has a nice 3.18 ERA for the season, but he has never demonstrated this ability before at any level, and we will stick with our prediction that his ERA will rise throughout the second half.

Now granted, Robinson Tejeda of the Texas Rangers is not much, but he may not have to be considering the recent struggles of the Oakland offense. The Athletics have now lost eight consecutive games, which in itself makes them very susceptible at this price, and they have failed to score more than three runs in any of their last 10 games.

Finally, the Rangers hold a distinct bullpen advantage here, as they are fourth in the American League with a 3.52 pen ERA, while the Oakland bullpen reports home at 4.37. All things considered, even with Tejeda on the mound, this looks like some nice value for a Texas team that is playing much better baseball lately.

Free Pick: Rangers +145

Willie Bee · 07-17-07, 10:30 AM

Pale Hose & Tribe Under 9½

Game Time: 07/17/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Look for things to calm down after yesterday's wild contest that produced 21 runs total. The White Sox' Jon Garland and the Indians' Paul Byrd will keep this one Under in Cleveland tonight.

Yesterday's series opener was a wild affair which produced a whopping 21 runs. Today's game should be significantly lower-scoring.

Chicago's Jon Garland has a 2.95 ERA on the road this season and has seen the Under go a solid 10-6-2 for the season. Cleveland's Paul Byrd, who has also seen the Under go 10-6 for the season, has a 3.22 ERA his last three starts, all which stayed below the total.

Byrd tossed six shutout innings when he faced the White Sox earlier in the season. That game finished with a final score of 4-0. Including that result, the Under is a healthy 11-6 the last 17 times that the Sox traveled to Cleveland. Its also worth mentioning that the Under remains a profitable 66-40-4 (62%) the past three seasons when the Sox have faced a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. Consider a play on the Under.

Free Pick: White Sox-Indians Under 9½

Willie Bee · 07-17-07, 10:31 AM

Pirates +100 to make Rockies walk plank

Game Time: 07/17/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Youman has pitched well in two starts, making him a rare bright spot in another miserable Pirates season. They should win tonight though vs. old friend Fogg.

Left-hander Shane Youman has indeed been a “yeoman” for the Pittsburgh Pirates this season, as the Pirates are 2-0 in his starts.

One could almost see this coming, as he pitched quite well in his first Major League start last September, and that was perhaps a harbinger of what was to come this year. Youman's mound opponent will be former Pirate Josh Fogg, who has faced Pittsburgh just once since leaving town. That was last season when the Rockies won, but Fogg was terrible, as the Pirates scored eight runs in that contest.

Fogg is also having a less than impressive 2007 campaign, so we will back the Bucs at home to end a four-game losing skein..

Free Pick: Pirates +100

Willie Bee · 07-17-07, 10:32 AM

Chalk up Mariners -160 to sail past Orioles

Game Time: 07/17/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

The Orioles have been awful on the road vs. winning teams, while the Mariners have dominated the American League East. Look for Seattle to prevail.

The Orioles won three straight games over the White Sox at home over the weekend, but this series on the west coast vs. the Mariners is far more difficult, as evidenced by the 4-2 Seattle win Monday.

With that result, the Orioles are now a woeful 20-58 on the road vs. teams over .500, as well as a mere 12-30 at Seattle. On the other hand, the Mariners have played well against the American League East, as the win last night raises their mark to 17-7 in the last 24 games vs. that division.

Finally, Felix Hernandez is 2-0 with a fantastic 0.99 WHIP in his last three starts, so stay with the Mariners tonight as they rebound from a disappointing weekend series with Detroit..

Free Pick: Mariners -160

Willie Bee · 07-17-07, 10:33 AM

Back Halladay and Jays in the Bronx

Game Time: 07/17/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

Roy Halladay is due for a good outing, and getting him at this price is impossible to pass. Bet the Blue Jays and Halladay this evening in the Bronx when they meet Andy Pettitte and the Yankees.

There is very good value here tonight with Toronto since their ace, Roy Halladay, is overdue for a solid start and he should be ready to go for this game.

Andy Pettitte gest the start for New York and the Jays have hit lefties very well this season with a 17-10 record while hitting .284 as a team. And Pettitte has been hit hard lately with an ERA of 13.13 over his last three starts.

Free Pick: Blue Jays +121

Willie Bee · 07-17-07, 10:35 AM

Tigers, Twins to slip Under 9½

Game Time: 07/17/2007 08:10 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Garza threw six shutout innings in his return to the bigs, and the Twins offense has a tough time with southpaws. Play Under, as runs should be at a premium here.

Matt Garza was very impressive in his 2007 debut for the Minnesota Twins, while Nate Robertson of the Detroit Tigers may have one of his better games tonight vs. a Twins team that struggles with southpaws.

Garza has always been highly touted, but he was probably rushed to the Major Leagues last season. The extra year of seasoning appears to have done him good however, as he was dominant in his return to the Twins last week while tossing six scoreless innings at Chicago vs. the White Sox.

Now Robertson has struggled this year after a breakout season in 2006, but perhaps seeing the Twins in the opposing dugout will help him turn things around. Robertson actually recorded one of his few Quality Starts this season in his only 2007 start against Minnesota, marking the fourth time in his last five career starts against the Twins that he has surrendered three earned runs or less.

The bottom line is that if Garza was not a mirage last week and if the Twins continue to struggle against Robertson like they do vs. most left-handers, we simply do not see this game getting out of single-digits.

Free Pick: Tigers, Twins Under 9½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 07-17-07, 10:36 AM

Play Phils & Dodgers Over 8½

Game Time: 07/17/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Though known as more of a pitcher's park, Chavez Ravine has played Over the total more this season. Bet the Over tonight in Los Angeles when the Dodgers host the Phillies.

The Phillies are a profitable 27-16-1 Over on the road this season while the Dodgers are 28-18 Over at home this season. Philly is 20-6-1 Over in their last 27 games overall while the Dodgers are 21-6 Over in their last 37 as a favorite.

Philadelphia is 7-2-1 Over in their last 10 while L.A. is 8-2 Over during the same span. Look for another high scoring affair tonight. Play the Over.

Free Pick: Phillies-Dodgers Over 8½