Since the All-Star break...

Razz · 07-15-07, 11:59 PM

Yeah, Saturday was tough, I was glad to get out of it without getting totally blistered.

bigboydan · 07-16-07, 01:45 AM

It's been pretty brutal for dogs this year. It's the first time that I remember chalk cashing in at such a high rate in many,many years.

onlooker · 07-16-07, 01:49 AM

Post all star break is no surprise really. It usually happens like that. You got to be careful when picking dogs after the break.

But your right Dan. The chalk seems to be hitting at a higher rate then norm this year.

moses millsap · 07-16-07, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by onlòóker

But your right Dan. The chalk seems to be hitting at a higher rate then norm this year.

Dogs had a pretty solid run the last month or so IMHO.

The HG · 07-16-07, 01:03 PM

Well in May, favorites did extremely well, then in June the underdogs did extremely well. In July the favorites are doing moderately well again.

But I think this is mostly incidental, and some of it has to do with which kinds of teams that were overrated or underrated played other kinds of teams that were overrated or underrated in those specific months.

I wouldn't read much into those sorts of trends at all, although there are some overarching things it is good to be aware of. One, for example, would be that late in the year, huge home favorites can often be good bets against teams that are completely out of it and just playing out the season. But that falls under the category of "circumstances" not "trends".

In general this year though, there is a bit more parity than in years past, which might partly explain why these sorts of line tendencies are somewhat different. Overall on the year though, underdogs are still doing slightly better (or rather, slightly less badly) than favorites.