Saturday's Front Page Picks (Jul 14)

Willie Bee · 07-14-07, 10:15 AM

Bet Braves to bash Bucs

Game Time: 07/14/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com

The Braves have beaten the Pirates like a rented mule for quite some time now. Make your play on Atlanta at home in Turner Field this evening when they entertain Pittsburgh.

Talk about being owned by someone. The Pirates are 19-40 the last 59 meetings in this series, have two wins in their last nine road games and are 7-23 in their last 30 games at Atlanta.

Off a 9-1 win on Friday night, look for Atlanta to get it done again here with an excellent bullpen at home. Chuck James has struggled at home this year at 2-4 in his starts and is hungry for a win. His ERA is solid at 3.96, and James has allowed only 13 hits in his last three starts. Always nice to have a trend play this strong in your favor with a far superior team at home.

Free Pick: Braves -141

Willie Bee · 07-14-07, 10:17 AM

White Sox +100 to hose Orioles

Game Time: 07/14/2007 07:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Javier Vazquez has pitched as well as any pitcher in the American League not named Bedard over the past month, so go White Sox.

The Baltimore Orioles beat the Chicago White Sox behind the red-hot Eric Bedard here last night, but the O’s are still just 1-6 in the last seven games not started by Bedard.

Daniel Cabrera get the call this evening, and he has been a major disappointment this season, sitting at 6-10 with a lofty 5.04 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Moreover, he was hit hard by the White Sox in a 5-1 loss at Chicago last week, where he allowed five earned runs in six innings.

This game is a pitching rematch from that game, as Javier Vazquez again takes the mound for Chicago. Vazquez has been a rare bright spot in a miserable year for the Sox, as he has a nice 3.65 ERA with an outstanding 1.07 WHIP for the entire season. He has been brilliant in his last four outings, posting a 1.69 ERA and a magnificent 0.84 WHIP in 32 innings during this span.

Vazquez allowed one run on just four hits while pitching a Complete Game in that last matchup with Cabrera, and we expect another sharp outing tonight.

Free Pick: White Sox +100

Willie Bee · 07-14-07, 10:19 AM

Take Angels -210 over Rangers

Game Time: 07/14/2007 09:05 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

Angels All-Star John Lackey has come of age this season, and he has been brilliant in his last three starts. Play the Halos at home in Anaheim tonight.

The talented Texan, All-Star John Lackey, gets the call tonight for the Los Angeles Angels.

Lackey, 11-5 with a 2.91 ERA, has suffered from shoulder stiffness at times this season, but he is incredibly durable, having never missed a turn in the rotation in six years. He may be just 8-8 with a 5.24 ERA in 21 career outings against the Texas Rangers, but he is 2-0 against Texas with a 2.03 ERA this year, his best season so far. Lackey also has a 2.70 ERA with a microscopic 0.86 WHIP in his last three starts.

Kameron Loe will start for the Rangers, looking to continue his personal four-game winning streak. However, Loe has not had much luck against the Angels, posting a 2-4 lifetime record with a 5.75 ERA. One of those starts came this season in Arlington, where he was touched up for five earned runs in seven innings of a 6-3 loss.

The Halos are tough to beat at home, posting a 30-13 mark here in Anaheim. They are also 6-2 in Lackey's last eight starts, as well as 13-5 in all of Lackey’s starts this year. After a 2-1 victory last night, look for the Angels to ride Lackey to another win over the Rangers.

Free Pick: Angels -210

Willie Bee · 07-14-07, 10:21 AM

Dodgers -120 to tower over the Giants

Game Time: 07/14/2007 03:55 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Matt Morris is starting to show his age after a very hot start, and he has never had much success vs. Los Angeles, so take the Dodgers today.

After getting off to a very hot start, San Francisco Giants starter Matt Morris is now pitching much more like you would expect from an overpaid 33 year-old right-hander.

Morris has been particularly easy to hit in his last four starts, where he has given up 39 hits in only 22.2 innings. Things probably will not get any easier for him against the Los Angeles Dodgers either, a team that Morris has only beaten twice in the last 10 times he has faced them dating all the way back to 2002.

Also, the Dodgers have won an astounding 13 of the last 17 meetings between these two National League West rivals, so look for them to prevail again.

Free Pick: Dodgers -120

Willie Bee · 07-14-07, 10:23 AM

Chalk up Yankees -200 to sting Devil Rays

Game Time: 07/14/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Chien-Ming Wang has been unhittable for the Yankees recently, and he should have no trouble stifling the Devil Rays, so lay the big chalk.

Chien-Ming Wang of the New York Yankees has not allowed a run in either of his last two starts, a span of greater than 13 innings.

Furthermore, the Yankees won those two games by a combined score of 20-0! For the season, Wang has a 3.03 ERA in 14 starts, with the Yankees going 9-5 when he takes the mound. Sonnanstine has not pitched that badly recently for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, but they are still 0-3 his last three starts. For the season, he has a poor 5.36 ERA in seven starts with the Rays going just 1-6 as a team.

It is a big price, but lay the wood with the visiting Bronx Bombers.

Free Pick: Yankees -200

Willie Bee · 07-14-07, 10:26 AM

A’s -105 make the grade with Blanton

Game Time: 07/14/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Greg Daraban | playbook.com

Joe Blanton has been a pleasant surprise for Oakland. Look for the A’s to snap their five-game losing streak against Carlos Silva and the Minnesota Twins.

The Oakland Athletics have lost the first two games of this series with the Minnesota Twins 6-2 and 5-3 respectively, but look for some payback tonight.

Joe Blanton is quietly having a fine season, coming in at 8-5 with a sparkling 3.28 ERA. He looks to play the role of stopper here for an Oakland team that has lost five games in a row, and is in danger of slipping out of the American League West race.

This is a must game for the A’s, and it helps to be facing Carlos Silva, who is just 6-10 with a 4.58 ERA, so look for Oakland to get the win in this one

Free Pick: Athletics -105

Willie Bee · 07-14-07, 10:28 AM

Astros, Cubs to fly Over 10

Game Time: 07/14/2007 03:55 PM -
By: Scott Rickenbach | playbook.com

The total may seem high for a Roy Oswalt vs. Ted Lilly matchup. But with the wind blowing out at Wrigley, look form lots of scoring in Chicago this afternoon.

Even though Roy Oswalt of the Houston Astros and Ted Lilly of the Chicago Cubs do not bring to mind the thoughts of Overs dancing in your head, we do feel that this game will find its way above the total.

There were a ton of wasted opportunities in yesterday's game, as the Cubs inexplicably left 14 men on base in just 8 innings worth of at-bats! The key here is that even though two good starting hurlers take the hill, the weather should be very favorable for an over, as the wind is expected to be blowing out at a good clip at Wrigley Field this afternoon.

The fact that this total is set at 10 despite this pitching matchup only reinforces the expected wind direction, so play the Over.

Free Pick: Astros, Cubs Over 10 (-110)

Willie Bee · 07-14-07, 10:30 AM

Vazquez, White Sox to triumph

Game Time: 07/14/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Larry Cook | touthouse.com

With Javier Vazquez slated to start for the White Sox against the Orioles' Daniel Cabrera, the Pale Hose have a decided mound advantage. Back Chicago this evening in Baltimore.

Javier Vasquez has finally gotten his act together for the Chicago White Sox. The 30-year-old right-hander is 3-0 in his last three starts with a 1.80 ERA and just a 0.88 WHIP.

Meanwhile, Daniel Cabrera is winless in his last three starts for the Orioles with a 1.64 WHIP and a high 5.40 ERA. The White Sox have killed the Orioles' pitching staff, excluding Erik Bedard. The Sox have touched up the Orioles for at least four runs in 12 of their last 13 meetings. Chicago is batting .294 over their last 10 games overall and is 8-2 in their last 10 games at Baltimore. The Sox are 21-9 in their last 30 meetings with Baltimore overall.

We have a big advantage on the mound today in Vazquez over Cabrera, and we won’t hesitate to wager on Chicago. Bet the White Sox.

Free Pick: White Sox +100

Willie Bee · 07-14-07, 10:33 AM

, Braves to stay Under 9 (-130)

Game Time: 07/14/2007 07:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Tom Gorzelanny may be the best pitcher that no one has heard of, while Chuck James has pitched well at home, so look for a safe Under.

This game features a matchup of two of the best young left-handed starters in baseball.

Tom Gorzelanny may be a household name already if he did not pitch in the obscurity that defines the Pittsburgh Pirates. Gorzelanny has managed to go an amazing 9-4 despite getting very little support from the Pirates offense, as he is among the league leaders with a 3.10 ERA. He should be doubly tough on an Atlanta Braves offense that has never faced him before.

The Braves counter with Chuck James, who has done his bets pitching at home this season, where he has a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He was outstanding in his only start vs. the Pirates in Pittsburgh, allowing just one measly hit in seven scoreless innings.

Neither of these offenses has been tearing things up this season, and we look for more of the same tonight as this game should easily stay in the single-digits.

Free Pick: Pirates, Braves Under 9 (-130)

Willie Bee · 07-14-07, 10:34 AM

D-Backs good dogs to bet in desert

Game Time: 07/14/2007 09:40 PM -
By: John Ryan | 10starpicks.com

The Diamondbacks have several trends in their favor tonight at home. Side with Arizona and Livan Hernandez this evening when they host Jake Peavy and the San Diego Padres.

Three trends support this graded play starting with a system that has gone 142-117 over the past five seasons: Play against any team with a hot starting pitcher sporting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts and facing an opponent with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA of 7.00 or higher over his last five starts.

Here is the second system that has gone 238-164 and has made 63.1 units since 2001: Play on NL home teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season. Here is the third system that has gone 43-11 and has made 23.8 units since 2001: Play on NL home teams in July when the moneyline is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season.

Arizona starter Livan Hernandez is 10-3 when starting against San Diego with an ERA of 3.77 and a WHIP of 1.342. The Padres are 2-10 (-9.6 Units) against the moneyline vs teams that strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Take Arizona.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks +122

Willie Bee · 07-14-07, 10:36 AM

Mitre & Marlins to swat Nats

Game Time: 07/14/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Bill Young | touthouse.com

One of the bright spots for the Marlins' pitching staff this year has been righty Sergio Mitre. Follow Florida at home tonight as the favorites when they host the Washington Nationals.

Sergio Mitre has been a big bright spot on this terrible Marlins’ starting staff. Mitre has just a 2.85 ERA in over 88 innings of work and behind him he is supported by a hitting the ball very well.

Washington is batting just .238 in their last 10 games despite a big run total from the Nationals last night. Mitre will deliver the goods tonight against a team that doesn’t hit righty pitching well at all. The Nationals are 1-6 in the last seven meetings in Florida. The Nationals are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a right-handed starter. Take Florida.

Free Pick: Marlins -160

Willie Bee · 07-14-07, 10:37 AM

Rocks & Brew Crew Over 8½

Game Time: 07/14/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Rockies and Brewers combined for 16 runs last night and the trends point to them going over the total again tonight. Play the Over this evening when Milwaukee hosts Colorado.

The Rockies have played the Over in seven of their last nine games as the underdog. Colorado has played over the total in five of their last six games overall.

The Over is a profitable 9-2 in their last 11 road games and Colorado has played the over in two of Rodrigo Lopez's last three starts. His ERA over his last three starts is 11.20.

The Over is 8-2-5 in Milwaukee ace Ben Sheet's last 15 home starts. In his last 17 starts the Over is a money-making 11-5-1. The teams easily played the Over on Friday night and will do the same tonight. Play the Over.

Free Pick: Rockies-Brewers Over 8½

EBone · 07-14-07, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

D-Backs good dogs to bet in desert

Game Time: 07/14/2007 09:40 PM -
By: John Ryan | 10starpicks.com

The Diamondbacks have several trends in their favor tonight at home. Side with Arizona and Livan Hernandez this evening when they host Jake Peavy and the San Diego Padres.

Three trends support this graded play starting with a system that has gone 142-117 over the past five seasons: Play against any team with a hot starting pitcher sporting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts and facing an opponent with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA of 7.00 or higher over his last five starts.

Here is the second system that has gone 238-164 and has made 63.1 units since 2001: Play on NL home teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season. Here is the third system that has gone 43-11 and has made 23.8 units since 2001: Play on NL home teams in July when the moneyline is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season.

Arizona starter Livan Hernandez is 10-3 when starting against San Diego with an ERA of 3.77 and a WHIP of 1.342. The Padres are 2-10 (-9.6 Units) against the moneyline vs teams that strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Take Arizona.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks +122

Did I miss an office memo today or is Chris Young starting today instead of Jake Peavy?

E

Willie Bee · 07-14-07, 10:53 AM

E, Peavy is having his start pushed out and some sites are slow to catch up on the news. This piece was written with the notion he was going to pitch, so we left it that way.

Terpman92 · 07-14-07, 02:44 PM

Willie Bee- Nice writeup! I am with you on most today! Good luck with the card bro!