Thursday's Front Page Picks (Jul 12)

Willie Bee · 07-12-07, 08:58 AM

Blue Jays & Red Sox Over 9½

Game Time: 07/12/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Both starters tonight -- Toronto's Roy Halladay and Tim Wakefield of Boston -- have had inconsistent seasons. Bet the Over this evening when the Jays and Red Sox meet at Fenway.

Our Thursday MLB selection is on the Over in the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays game.

Tim Wakefield will get the start for Terry Francona's Red Sox, and he has been up-and-down this season. Overall the veteran knuckleballer has a 4.39 ERA, but he has not pitched well over his last 10 starts.

The Blue Jays will counter with Roy Halladay. Halladay also is having an up-and-down season, and his 4.46 ERA is definitely one of his worst in his stellar career. But Toronto has scored runs for him, as evidenced by his 10-3 record. Last Friday, Halladay surrendered five runs and nine hits in 5.2 innings, yet Toronto prevailed 8-6 over Cleveland.

Halladay has struggled vs. Boston in his career (4.67 ERA), and has a 5.31 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox this season. Take the Over.

Free Pick: Red Sox-Blue Jays Over 9½

Willie Bee · 07-12-07, 09:01 AM

Tigers, Mariners to slip Under 8½

Game Time: 07/12/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Both Felix Hernandez and Andrew Miller tossed gems last time out, and with both pitchers showing Under tendencies, go Under again tonight.

Both Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners and Andrew Miller of the Detroit Tigers are coming off of excellent outings last time out.

Hernandez held the Oakland Athletics to only two hits through eight shutout innings in his last start. Meanwhile, Miller allowed only one run through seven innings in his last outing. While Miller has seen all four of his home starts finish above the number, it is the Under that is 2-0 in his two road starts.

Meanwhile, Hernandez has seen each of his last two starts fall well beneath the total, so make a play on the Under today.

Free Pick: Tigers, Mariners Under 8½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 07-12-07, 09:04 AM

& Baker -120 to cool off Gaudin, A’s

Game Time: 07/12/2007 08:10 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Chad Gaudin was brilliant for Oakland in his first half, but he may have pitched over his head while Minnesota's Scott Baker may be improving, so take the Twins.

Chad Gaudin of the Oakland Athletics shocked the baseball world by posting a 2.88 ERA over the first half of the season, while Scott Baker was at 5.71.

Truth be told though, these pitchers are really not that far apart in terms of ability. In fact, you may be surprised to know that they current have an identical 1.37 WHIP despite the huge disparity in ERA. Yes Baker was shelled in his last start despite getting the win in that wild 20-14 game against the White Sox last week, but he had allowed two runs or less in each of his previous three starts against some good lineups (Detroit, Mets, Toronto). He also allowed just three runs and five hits in his only career appearance against the Athletics. The bottom line is that we are actually high on Baker, despite the few shellackings he has absorbed to skew his ERA somewhat.

Now Gaudin has been outstanding no doubt, but can he keep this up in the second half? After all, it is not as if he is a youngster, and he has never demonstrated this kind of ability before at any level. Now it could very well be that Gaudin has matured to the point where he really is as good as he has looked, but we still have our doubts and will fade him his first few starts after the break to see if he comes back down to earth. If he continues to pitch at his insane first-half level, so be it and we will tip our hat to him.

Finally the Twins are 5-1 in the last six regular season meetings between these clubs here in Minnesota, and the Twins have gone 7-1 the last eight times they were favored while Oakland is 3-7 as an underdog, so we will lay the small price at home here.

Free Pick: Twins -120

Willie Bee · 07-12-07, 09:06 AM

Take Yankees -145 to sting Devil Rays

Game Time: 07/12/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

The Yankees get an early chance to put a dent in their 10-game deficit behind the Red Sox, so look for New York to bomb the Devil Rays in Tampa tonight.

Alright New York Yankees, you want respect? You want to chisel away at the Red Sox 10-game lead? You want back in the race? Then be sure to pack your sticks with you to Florida, and kick the ever living you know what out of this Tampa Bay Devil Rays club like you know you should.

Salaries aside, the Yankees should smear this Tampa club with the talent they have littered throughout their roster. Tampa is a woeful 1-13 overall their last 14 games, and they own what could possibly be the worst bullpen the big leagues has ever seen. Now, this Shields kid has been a very nice story for Tampa this season, but he's shown signs of regression over the last month of play, and I am chalking that up to the amount of innings he threw early, trying to keep the ball out of the pens’ hands.

Sure, Pettitte has been downright awful this year, but he's always put forth good numbers in the second half of the season, and he is 11-1 with a 3.29 ERA in his career vs. the Devil Rays. Those are some pretty gaudy numbers if you ask me, and it almost makes it laughable to think the Yanks are this cheap in this spot.

That being said, they are still the Yankees, and they for some reason love to underachieve. However, the second half of the season is a fresh start for this veteran club, and I foresee them making hay over the next couple of weeks, with series' against Tampa, Toronto, and Kansas City on the horizon.

Look for a rejuvenated Yankees club to get off on the right foot tonight as they take it to Shields and the Rays like they've done so many times in the past.

Free Pick: Yankees -145

Willie Bee · 07-12-07, 09:09 AM

Tigers to win tussle at Mariners

Game Time: 07/12/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Dave Price | touthouse.com

Seattle sends their young phenom Felix Hernandez to the mound tonight, and Detroit counters with their rookie southpaw Andrew Miller on the road. Take the Tigers in this one vs. the Mariners.

Seattle's Felix Hernandez runs into a lineup that is just too good here tonight. The Mariners' young right-hander is just 2-11 against the moneyline when facing AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.

The Tigers entered the All-Star break on a red-hot five-game winning streak. Detroit is 21-8 against the moneyline in road games after three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. Take the Tigers behind their rookie left-hander Andrew Miller as they stay hot tonight.

Free Pick: Tigers +122

Willie Bee · 07-12-07, 09:11 AM

Blue Jays, Red Sox to go Under 9½ (-120)

Game Time: 07/12/2007 07:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between the Blue Jays and Red Sox, so look for Halladay and Wakefield to get back on track tonight.

While both Roy Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays and Tim Wakefield of the Boston Red Sox have been erratic, we believe that both hurlers will keep the opposing batters relatively quiet tonight.

Wakefield has always been streaky, and his knuckleball has given the Blue Jays fits in the past. In fact, he has allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine career starts against Toronto, and he is a perfect three for three in Quality Starts against them this season, allowing just four earned runs in 20 innings. In fact, the Under is 8-0-1 in those last nine career starts, including 3-0 this season.

Now Halladay has been a disappointment, but do not forget that he is a former Cy Young winner, and maybe the extra day or rest he is getting here may be just what he needs to get back on track. The Blue Jays are still 7-3 as a team in his last 10 career starts vs. the Red Sox, and he has had success here in Fenway Park in the past.

Finally, the Under is now 11-4 in the last 15 head-to-head meetings between these clubs, and we look for that pattern to continue tonight.

Free Pick: Blue Jays, Red Sox Under 9½ (-120)

Willie Bee · 07-12-07, 09:12 AM

A’s, Twins to sneak Under 9

Game Time: 07/12/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Both the Athletics and Twins have had strong Under tendencies, and we do not expect much to change when these clubs square off tonight.

Runs should be hard to come by when the Minnesota Twins host the Oakland Athletics tonight.

The under is 6-2 in Oakland's last eight games vs. American League Central opponents, as well as 5-2-1 in the Athletics’ last eight games vs. right-handed starters. The A's have played Under the total in Gaudin's last four starts, bringing the record for the Under to a profitable 12-5 in all of Gaudin’s outings this season.

The under is also 6-2 in Minnesota's last eight games vs. American League West opponents. Baker takes the mound tonight, and the Under is 6-3 in games he's started this season. In his last 10 starts where the total has been set in the 9-10½ range, the Under is 7-3.

Finally, these teams have played Under the total in six of their last seven meetings, so play the Under again tonight.

Free Pick: Athletics, Twins Under 9 (-110)

Willie Bee · 07-12-07, 09:14 AM

Play Pettitte & Yanks at D-Rays

Game Time: 07/12/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

It's now-or-never for the Yankees as they start the second half of the season a game under .500 and 10 behind Boston in the AL East. Back New York tonight in Tampa vs. the Devil Rays.

The Yankees finished went into the All Star break on a nifty 5-2 run to pull within one game of the .500 mark. They start off the second half tonight when they travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Devil Rays in what hopes to be a start to their run to the Eastern Division Crown.

The Yankees will hand the ball over the veteran left-hander Andy Pettitte who will be making his 21st start of the year. Pettitte has struggled over his last three starts with an atmospheric 11.19 ERA. However, he's had great success versus the Devil Rays in his career posting an impressive 11-1 mark with a good 3.29 ERA.

Tampa Bay looks to spoil the Yankees post All-Star kick off but come in losers of 10 of their last 11 ball games and sporting a 34-53 mark overall. They have not fared well against divisional opponents going only 8-14 this season. On the hill for the Devil Rays will be right-hander James Shields who has really had a respectable season. Shields comes in at 7-4 with a 3.82 ERA on the season but is only 1-2 his last three starts with a higher 4.71 ERA. Career versus the Yankees, Shields is winless at 0-2 with and even higher 5.68 ERA.

Supporting Trends: Tampa Bay is 17-33 (-16.4 Units) against the moneyline on a good fielding streak, 15 straight games with one or less errors this season. The D-Rays are 13-26 (-13.3 Units) against a _125 to -125 moneyline this season. Tampa Bay is 7-21 (-14.1 Units) against the moneyline vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. Pettitte is 20-3 (+15.3 Units) against the moneyline vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997.

In a nut shell, New York has turned a profit on the road versus right-handed starters in night games (14-9, +$275 with 5.8 runs per game) while the Devil Rays have been horrible at Tropicana Field (19-24, -$625). Look for the Yankees to start their run tonight. I'm taking the Yankees in this one.

Free Pick: Yankees -140

onlooker · 07-12-07, 11:14 AM

I agree with Marc, and disagree with LT. I like the Athletics tonight.