Home Run Derby

JBC77 · 07-08-07, 07:26 PM

My only thought, is that you broke it down pretty well. Even though he won it last year.....I'm thinking Howard maybe. I had D.Ortiz last year.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-08-07, 07:59 PM

Keep in mind also that right handed batters have won this thing only twice in the last 11 years I believe, so taking a lefty is well advised.

bigboydan · 07-09-07, 12:01 AM

I'm taking the day off tomorrow fellas, and working on my college football capping.

AC1318 · 07-09-07, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by bigboydan

I'm taking the day off tomorrow fellas, and working on my college football capping.

already

AC1318 · 07-09-07, 12:45 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Since Monday figures to be a light betting day for most, figured I'd toss out some stuff on the thing we're all likely to bet on. Next to each guy's name is his HR total this season and any career HRs at SF.

* - Never played at AT&T Park

AL
TOR: Alex Rios (17/1)
DET: Magglio Ordonez (13/0)*
LAA: Vlad Guerrero (14/2)
MIN: Justin Morneau (23/0)*

NL
STL: Albert Pujols (16/2)
MIL: Prince Fielder (29/0)
PHI: Ryan Howard (21/4)

Park Dimensions
LEFT: 339
LC: 364
C: 399
RC: 421
R: 309

I haven't seen any odds posted, I'll put 'em up when I see them.

Analysis: Fielder & Howard will obviously be the ones every one will watch. AT&T Park would seem to benefit lefties right down the line, although right-center is the biggest part of the field. I'll eliminate Vlad & Mags off the bat because I don't see either as a prolific HR hitter. While Pujols can hit 'em with the best, I also don't think he's going to win this. For me, that leaves:

Fielder
Howard
Morneau
Rios

I'm thinking about Morneau because he likely will have decent odds where as Howard and Fielder I believe will be close to even odds or worse. Thoughts?

how many guys won it back to back???

bigboydan · 07-09-07, 12:48 AM

Originally posted by AC1318

already

Yes AC. Everyone knows I start my football capping once the baseball all-star break hits.

There is tons of data and players that graduated and or left early for the NFL, and it takes a lot of time to break everything down. Not to mention combing the internet for anything that might give me an edge for the up coming season.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-09-07, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by AC1318

how many guys won it back to back???

I think Griffey did it in 1999 & 2000, that's the only one I believe.

AC1318 · 07-09-07, 01:05 AM

Is howard 100%??? or close to it.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-09-07, 01:26 AM

Howard has 3 HRs in his last 10 games and he's been playing pretty much every day since he came back in late May. I'd guess he's as close to 100% as anyone would be half way through a season.

AC1318 · 07-09-07, 07:11 AM

considering ryan howard has 70 less batting attempts and is 3rd for HR's he could pull out a back to back I think. Plus he is familiar and bats left as you stated may be more favorable

JM and PF are likely candidates as well

JBC77 · 07-09-07, 09:24 AM

Prince Fielder +275
Ryan Howard +185
Justin Morneau +550
Magglio Ordonez +1000
Albert Pujols +240
Alex Rios +900
Vladimir Guerrero +800
The Field - Any Replacement +800

Whos the sleeper pick?

moses millsap · 07-09-07, 10:29 AM

Pujols or Morneau. Would try to go, but I heard security is going to be a bitch all around the park and I hate those kind of people to begin with anyways.

Junkyard Dog · 07-09-07, 11:10 AM

Im throwing half a unit on Fielder

Carlos019 · 07-09-07, 11:44 AM

The most home runs for the first round is a more predictable bet than who will win it. Between the first round and second round a lot of time passes and they are sitting down for so long that they might not still be loose by the the time they bat in the second round. During the first round they have their adenaline pumping and they are looser from their batting practice, stretching etc. therefore less outside factors come into effect.

Just my .02

Willie Bee · 07-09-07, 12:17 PM

I like Howard's chances to repeat, partly because he's got his BP pitcher from last year back, Ramon Henderson, who also pitched the winners to Abreu in 2005 LINK.

Weather forecast right now has the wind out of the west at 10-20 MPH for this evening. Might not be quite that strong when they start this event since it will still be late afternoon in San Fran. AT&T sits on a fairly true West-to-East line from the plate to CF, so the wind is forecast to be blowing out.

The left-handed hitter theory is a good one. But keep in mind that while it's shorter straight down the RF line, the park gets big in a hurry moving around towards right-center. I could see Pujols coming up with this one. And keep an eye on the late entry Matt Holliday who has wanted to be in this the last couple of years and is itching to put on a show.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-09-07, 12:20 PM

I think a lefty surely wins now. Watched part of that stupid 1st & 10 segment on ESPN this morning with Skip Bayless. He likes Pujols and says AT&T Park is not made for lefties to hit HRs. That alone says my money will go to Howard and/or Fielder. I'm thinking less about Morneau.

Willie Bee · 07-09-07, 12:23 PM

I've always thought it good to be on the other side of Skip Clueless. But he is right about anything less than a dead-pull to right is tougher to get out than from the left-field line to the left-center alley.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-09-07, 12:27 PM

Oh I agree with that - but he made it sound like it was impossible for a lefty to win this thing. I think with the raw power of Howard and Fielder - it's not that big a deal. If there was a righty who had a solid HR stroke going, I'd drop a little $ on him. I don't see that in any of the guys here, although Vlad might be worth a half unit just for giggles at +800.

Willie Bee · 07-09-07, 01:09 PM

Skip Clueless always makes things sound like they're absolute, real black-&-white. Dude has no clue, as his nickname would suggest.

The Greek had 'the field' listed earlier today. Wonder if they will honor any bets made on that if Holliday wins it since he is the field by himself

Benson17 · 07-09-07, 01:09 PM

Go get em' Prince.

JBC77 · 07-09-07, 01:19 PM

Is anybody planning on making 2 wagers in the HR derby? If so, as of now, who would you take?

EaglesPhan36 · 07-09-07, 01:42 PM

I will be doing two bets JBC. Probably a unit or a unit & a half on Howard or Fielder & then half or a quarter on a long shot.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-09-07, 01:58 PM

Matt Holliday added to the competition +800

JBC77 · 07-09-07, 05:25 PM

I'm about to throw all the names in a hat and pick two.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-09-07, 05:29 PM

Updated odds

801 Prince Fielder +275
802 Ryan Howard +175
803 Justin Morneau +375
805 Vladimir Guerrero +600
806 Magglio Ordonez +1200
807 Albert Pujols +275
808 Alex Rios +900
809 The Field - Any Replacement +800

Morneau got bought down pretty well. I'm leaning to making Prince my main bet.

JBC77 · 07-09-07, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Updated odds

Morneau got bought down pretty well. I'm leaning to making Prince my main bet.

Yeah...I'm with you.

RickySteve · 07-09-07, 06:18 PM

I took a little action on Guerrero/Rios/Ordonez/Holliday at +202.

RickySteve · 07-09-07, 06:21 PM

I wouldn't take Morneau for triple the current price.

Vlad at +800 is a steal.

EaglesPhan36 · 07-09-07, 06:26 PM

Decided just to go all in on Prince for one unit at +275. Didn't want to make any sort of hedge bet. Let's go big boy, pump 'em outta the yard!

EaglesPhan36 · 07-09-07, 06:31 PM

I should say I decided not to place a 2nd wager to invest in a super duper MUTE button because this is quite possibly the worst & most annoying trio of announcers that could have been picked ... Chris Berman, Dusty Baker & Joe Morgan.

RickySteve · 07-09-07, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by RickySteve

I wouldn't take Morneau for triple the current price.

Vlad at +800 is a steal.

QFT

AC1318 · 07-09-07, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by RickySteve

QFT

nice call ricky steve

Spanks · 07-10-07, 12:45 AM

Originally posted by RickySteve

QFT

I was with you bro,nice f'n payout!