Nationals Over 9 +110 (Bush/Bacsik)
Dave Bush’s home/road splits are as drastic as any you will see. Career home ERA/WHIP/BAA - 3.87/1.14/.245. Pretty solid. But in his road career, it’s 5.05/1.31/.282. This year, his ERA is 2 runs higher on the road, his WHIP is 0.41 higher, and opponents are hitting 58 points higher against Bush in his road starts. In his lone start at RFK, he pitched 4 innings, gave up 7 hits, a walk, 5 runs, and 4 ER. The current Nats roster has hit him very well, and they should again tomorrow.
Mike Bacsik is about what you’d expect from a back of the rotation starter for a last place teams. 2-5, 4.65 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, .292 BAA, averaging right about 5.1 IP per start. The Brewers have hit lefties well all year, and despite their struggles at PNC Park over the weekend, I think they’ll return to form against a very mediocre pitcher here.
Dodgers -132 (Billingsley/Willis)
The Dodgers have given Dontrelle Willis more problems than any other team. That’s not that surprising considering how well the Dodgers hit lefties, but some of the numbers really are: 1-5 with a 7.11 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, and .310 BAA. The Dodgers are hot right now offensively, and Billingsley has been finding a way to get it done so far. 5-0 with a 3.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and .205 BAA … even though he has only been a spot starter, he’s been extremely consistent, much more so than Willis, and with the Dodgers having the better lineup and bullpen, I don’t mind laying the relatively short number.
Tigers Under 10.5 -110 (Tavarez/Miller)
These lineups will get all the press - especially after these teams scored 15 and 12 runs Thursday - but the starters here are solid enough that this total is too high. Andrew Miller is a budding star. I personally think he’ll eventually be better than Verlander. Either way, he should have a quality start here against a Red Sox offense that isn’t the same away from home (4.45 rpg), particularly against lefties (3.83 rpg).
The Tigers have been hitting lefties a lot better than righties, and Tavarez isn’t even close to as bad as his reputation. He’s not going to shut anybody down, but he hasn’t given up more than 4 ER in a game since April 24, and he’s pretty consistent to go about 6 innings and give up about 3 runs every time out. Tough game to pick a winner, but I expect that both starters give their teams a chance and this one ends up 4-3 or 5-3 or so.
Yankees -1.5 +135 (Pettite/Colon)
Frankly, I’ll be shocked if Bartolo Colon is still pitching in the fifth inning. Bartolo Colon was 5-0 on May 23. Since then, he’s made seven starts, and has been arguably the worst pitcher in baseball. 1-4, 38.1 IP, 61 hits, 13 BB, 11 HR, 36 runs, 34 ER. The Yankees have been hitting everyone not named Santana or Gaudin at home the past month, and those guys combined ERA is less than Colon’s.
Take away four starts, and Andy Pettite might be starting the All-Star game. Obviously, you can say that about a lot of guys, but most of them haven’t bounced back as strongly as Pettite has after his poor starts. I think all that poor start has really done is given the Yankees incredible value in this game. Consider this - the Yankees opened in the -140 range in Pettite’s last start, against Dan Haren, who has been the best pitcher in the AL this season. Now they open at basically the same line against one of the worst pitchers in the game?
Indians/Blue Jays Over 9 (Lee/Halladay)
Simple equation here really. The Blue Jays are the second best team in baseball against lefties, and the Indians are the best team in baseball against righties. It’s tough betting against Roy Halladay pitching well, but he hasn’t been dominant like the past couple seasons, and the Indians’ offense should be good for at least a couple.
The Jays have also hit Cliff Lee very well in the past. Lee has been terrible on the road this year. Since a complete game against the Angels in his first road start, he has given up 35 hits, 13 BB, and 21 ER in 25.1 IP in five starts. He has a shaky bullpen behind him, and the Jays certainly would seem to be likely to light up the scoreboard here.
Mariners +178 (Weaver/Haren)
Jeff Weaver has always been a streaky pitcher, and he’s in one of his grooves right now, so I think this price is hard to ignore. Weaver has given up 5 ER in his last 5 starts (32.2 IP) and a WHIP of only 1.07 in that time period. Now, granted, Dan Haren has been putting up similar numbers all season long, but he’s looked somewhat vulnerable his last couple starts. With the Mariners having the superior lineup and bullpen, I must make this play.
The next couple days are going to be hectic for me, not sure if I'll be posting or not. If not, have a good weekend everybody.
Dave Bush’s home/road splits are as drastic as any you will see. Career home ERA/WHIP/BAA - 3.87/1.14/.245. Pretty solid. But in his road career, it’s 5.05/1.31/.282. This year, his ERA is 2 runs higher on the road, his WHIP is 0.41 higher, and opponents are hitting 58 points higher against Bush in his road starts. In his lone start at RFK, he pitched 4 innings, gave up 7 hits, a walk, 5 runs, and 4 ER. The current Nats roster has hit him very well, and they should again tomorrow.
Mike Bacsik is about what you’d expect from a back of the rotation starter for a last place teams. 2-5, 4.65 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, .292 BAA, averaging right about 5.1 IP per start. The Brewers have hit lefties well all year, and despite their struggles at PNC Park over the weekend, I think they’ll return to form against a very mediocre pitcher here.
Dodgers -132 (Billingsley/Willis)
The Dodgers have given Dontrelle Willis more problems than any other team. That’s not that surprising considering how well the Dodgers hit lefties, but some of the numbers really are: 1-5 with a 7.11 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, and .310 BAA. The Dodgers are hot right now offensively, and Billingsley has been finding a way to get it done so far. 5-0 with a 3.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and .205 BAA … even though he has only been a spot starter, he’s been extremely consistent, much more so than Willis, and with the Dodgers having the better lineup and bullpen, I don’t mind laying the relatively short number.
Tigers Under 10.5 -110 (Tavarez/Miller)
These lineups will get all the press - especially after these teams scored 15 and 12 runs Thursday - but the starters here are solid enough that this total is too high. Andrew Miller is a budding star. I personally think he’ll eventually be better than Verlander. Either way, he should have a quality start here against a Red Sox offense that isn’t the same away from home (4.45 rpg), particularly against lefties (3.83 rpg).
The Tigers have been hitting lefties a lot better than righties, and Tavarez isn’t even close to as bad as his reputation. He’s not going to shut anybody down, but he hasn’t given up more than 4 ER in a game since April 24, and he’s pretty consistent to go about 6 innings and give up about 3 runs every time out. Tough game to pick a winner, but I expect that both starters give their teams a chance and this one ends up 4-3 or 5-3 or so.
Yankees -1.5 +135 (Pettite/Colon)
Frankly, I’ll be shocked if Bartolo Colon is still pitching in the fifth inning. Bartolo Colon was 5-0 on May 23. Since then, he’s made seven starts, and has been arguably the worst pitcher in baseball. 1-4, 38.1 IP, 61 hits, 13 BB, 11 HR, 36 runs, 34 ER. The Yankees have been hitting everyone not named Santana or Gaudin at home the past month, and those guys combined ERA is less than Colon’s.
Take away four starts, and Andy Pettite might be starting the All-Star game. Obviously, you can say that about a lot of guys, but most of them haven’t bounced back as strongly as Pettite has after his poor starts. I think all that poor start has really done is given the Yankees incredible value in this game. Consider this - the Yankees opened in the -140 range in Pettite’s last start, against Dan Haren, who has been the best pitcher in the AL this season. Now they open at basically the same line against one of the worst pitchers in the game?
Indians/Blue Jays Over 9 (Lee/Halladay)
Simple equation here really. The Blue Jays are the second best team in baseball against lefties, and the Indians are the best team in baseball against righties. It’s tough betting against Roy Halladay pitching well, but he hasn’t been dominant like the past couple seasons, and the Indians’ offense should be good for at least a couple.
The Jays have also hit Cliff Lee very well in the past. Lee has been terrible on the road this year. Since a complete game against the Angels in his first road start, he has given up 35 hits, 13 BB, and 21 ER in 25.1 IP in five starts. He has a shaky bullpen behind him, and the Jays certainly would seem to be likely to light up the scoreboard here.
Mariners +178 (Weaver/Haren)
Jeff Weaver has always been a streaky pitcher, and he’s in one of his grooves right now, so I think this price is hard to ignore. Weaver has given up 5 ER in his last 5 starts (32.2 IP) and a WHIP of only 1.07 in that time period. Now, granted, Dan Haren has been putting up similar numbers all season long, but he’s looked somewhat vulnerable his last couple starts. With the Mariners having the superior lineup and bullpen, I must make this play.
The next couple days are going to be hectic for me, not sure if I'll be posting or not. If not, have a good weekend everybody.
