Thursday's Front Page Picks (Jul 5)

Willie Bee · 07-05-07, 09:01 AM

Twins & Yankees Under 11

Game Time: 07/05/2007 01:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The Bronx Bombers just aren't clicking on offense and the Twinkies struggle against lefties. Bet the Under this afternoon when the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins conclude their series.

Our Thursday MLB selection is on the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees remaining under the total.

Now that it is pretty clear that Roger Clemens won't be the Yankees' savior this season, it will be interesting to see what moves, if any, the Yankees make in the coming weeks prior to the trade deadline. Will they try and bolster their pitching staff, or will they simply pack it in and focus on next year with some free agent signings during the offseason? They are after all, not getting any younger, and with age comes an increase of injuries, as the Bronx Bombers can certainly attest to.

The vaunted Yankee offense is only a shell of what it has been in years past (including last season). In the recently concluded three game series against the A's, New York only scored a total of seven runs, and in the three game series before that (vs. the lowly Orioles) New York only managed 10 runs total.

Yankees starter Kei Igawa's numbers certainly are nothing to get excited about, but he is a left-hander and Minnesota has had some real problems hitting against southpaws this season (.255 team BA). With yet another loss on Independence Day dropping their record to 39-42, the Yankees are in danger of heading into the All-Star break with a losing record for the first time since 1995. These two teams have only broken double-digit totals (i.e., greater than nine runs) twice in the last nine times they've faced each other. Take the Under.

Free Pick: Twins-Yankees Under 11

Willie Bee · 07-05-07, 09:02 AM

Back Cubs to crack Nats, win series

Game Time: 07/05/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

After being blanked by Matt Chico and the Nationals yesterday, look for the Cubs to bounce back this evening for the series win. Back Chicago tonight at RFK in Washington DC.

The Cubbies were served up a cold dish of revenge yesterday afternoon, as Matt Chico and the Nats blanked the visitors by a 6-0 final count. Washington pitchers combined for a five-hitter, and lone Nationals All-Star representative Dmitri Young clubbed a grand salami that put the game away early.

It was great to be a Washington fan on the Fourth, but I foresee it being a completely different story tonight when Sean Marshall takes the bump for the Cubs. With a series win in their sights, I expect Chicago to pounce on this opportunity to get a couple more games over the .500 line and take it to the much-lesser Nats.

Since coming off the DL, Washington's Jason Bergmann has lost both of his starts and is coming off one of his worst performances of the season when he allowed the Pittsburgh Pirates to clobber him for eight hits and six earned runs in only four innings of work. The Cubs prefer right-handed pitching, and that's exactly what they'll get tonight as they look to improve their mark against the Nationals to 6-1 this season.

Washington is pretty much allergic to southpaws, save for Rich Hill, and Marshall's been one of the Cubs better road pitchers this season (3-1). Chicago just can't allow teams like Washington to split series against them the rest of this season if they're serious about getting back in the NL Central race.

Look for "Sweet Lou's" men to come out hungry tonight after getting thoroughly embarrassed yesterday afternoon.

Free Pick: Cubs -130

Willie Bee · 07-05-07, 09:04 AM

Side with Sheets, Brewers at Pirates

Game Time: 07/05/2007 12:35 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Ben Sheets is on a roll with a 1.83 ERA his last six starts for the Brew Crew. Back Milwaukee this afternoon when the Brewers close out their series with the Pirates in Pittsburgh.

Ace hurler Ben Sheets goes to the hill today for the visiting Milwaukee Brewers against the Pittsburgh Pirates trying to end his team's two-game losing streak.

Actually the Brew Crew has a recent history of poor efforts against the Bucs, losing 11 of the last 15 meetings in this series, so stopping the bleeding will not come easy. But with starter Sheets in red-hot form as is evident by a 9-1 record and a stingy 2.70 ERA in his L/11 starts, I think Milwaukee will get the proverbial monkey off their backs and notch the much needed victory.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Sheets is 3-1 along while garnering a tight 1.83 ERA in his last six starts vs the Pirates. Tom Gorzelanny, Pittsburgh's starter, has seen his team go just 1-5 his last six starts against the moneyline as underdogs. Play on Milwaukee.

Free Pick: Brewers -125

Willie Bee · 07-05-07, 09:05 AM

Reds & Giants to light up scoreboard

Game Time: 07/05/2007 07:10 PM -
By: John Anthony | procappers.com

Batters have been licking their chops to get at Reds pitching all season. And that makes the Over an inviting proposition when the San Francisco and Cincinnati close out their 3-game set.

The Giants are feasting on Reds pitching and have gone over in their last three games. Everyone feasts on Cincinnati pitching -- 6.9 runs per game, .298 avg last seven -- and the Reds have avgd 5.9 runs per game themselves in their last seven.

San Francisco starter Matt Morris has given up 37 baserunners with 7.02 ERA in his last 15+ innings. The Reds' Bronson Arroyo is 0-7 with 8.10 ERA in his last 10 starts. A numbers play that makes sense.

Free Pick: Giants-Reds Over 10

Willie Bee · 07-05-07, 09:06 AM

Cash with Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks

Game Time: 07/05/2007 07:15 PM -
By: Jeff Allen | procappers.com

The Cardinals are 9-2 when they give Adam Wainwright 3+ runs of support. And that should be an easy task this evening at home in St. Louis against Doug Davis and Arizona.

Arizona has been a pretty good road team but is a solid go-against here tonight. Here''s why.

The Cardinals are 9-2 when they give last year's closer and World Series hero Adam Wainright 3+ runs of support. They figure to get that and more here. Diamondbacks left-hander Doug Davis is 1-1 with 7.31 ERA in his last three and has allowed 93 baserunners in 53 innings on the road. Wainright's overall numbers are not much, but if he keeps this manageable the Cardinal bats will do their damage ... Take St Louis.

Free Pick: Cardinals -124

Willie Bee · 07-05-07, 09:08 AM

Mariners +130 to sail over A’s

Game Time: 07/05/2007 10:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Seattle is 11 games over .500, they have a hot starter in Miguel Batista, and they have the superior bullpen. So back the Mariners as the underdog.

This is a nice price for a Seattle Mariners team that has won four of the five season meetings with the Oakland Athletics, including both matchups here in Oakland.

The Mariners are a very good 46-35 overall, and they have won nine of their last 11 games overall. Their starter tonight, Miguel Batista, is on a nice roll right now, as he has allowed two earned runs or less in four straight starts and in seven of his last nine outings. The Mariners as a team are 5-2 in all of his road starts this season.

On the flip side, the Athletics are just treading water at 43-41, and they really have not enjoyed much of a home field advantage this year, going a modest 22-20 in this stadium. Yes Chad Gaudin is coming off of the game of his life, as he allowed just one hit in seven scoreless innings vs. the Yankees, but New York is a mess right now, and we feel some regression is in order vs. a Mariners lineup that is third in the Major Leagues in hitting with a .283 team batting average.

Finally, Seattle owns a huge bullpen edge here, as the Mariners are fourth in the American League with a 3.53 pen ERA while Oakland is in the bottom half of the league at 4.49.

Free Pick: Mariners +130

Willie Bee · 07-05-07, 09:09 AM

Make play on Cubs at Nats

Game Time: 07/05/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Dennis Macklin | procappers.com

The Cubs have the advantage on the mound tonight at RFK Stadium in DC. Look for Sean Marshall and Chicago to bounce back with a win in Washington against the Nationals.

The Cubs had won 10 of 11 before getting whitewashed by Matt Chico last night. No big deal; we're right back with the Blue Bears tonight behind starter Sean Marshall. The Cubs have won six of his last seven starts and their southpaw today has a nifty 2.70 ERA in his five road starts.

Washington's Jason Bergmann deserves better than his 1-5 with 3.47 ERA. That number is somewhat deceiving though as he is 0-2 with 7.88 ERA in two starts off the DL. The Nationals just don't hit and, prior to last night's 6-0 win, had scored three or fewer runs in 10 straight games while batting .201 in their previous seven.

The Nats are an unbelievable 5-21 this year in games where posted total opened at 8-8½, and just 1-5 versus Chicago's Northsiders this year. Take the Cubs.

Free Pick: Cubs -127

Willie Bee · 07-05-07, 09:11 AM

Go with Gaudin & A's vs Mariners

Game Time: 07/05/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Athletics simply win when right-hander Chad Gaudin is on the hill. Bet Oakland at home as the hosts tonight when they open a 4-game weekend series against the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle has lost seven of their last eight road games. The Mariners are 1-4 in their last five as a road underdog. Tonight, Miguel Batista takes the mound vs. an A's team he has struggled against in the past. In his last six starts vs. Oakland, his teams' record is 2-4.

The Athletics are 5-1 in their last six home games vs. teams with winning records. The A's are 9-2 in Chad Gaudin's last 11 starts. Oakland is 4-1 in his last five home starts. In his last seven games as a home favorite the A's are 5-2.

In the last 52 meetings overall between the clubs the Mariners are 18-34. The A's are 23-8 vs. Seattle in their last 31 meetings in Oakland. Play on Oakland.

Free Pick: Athletics -138