Tuesday's Front Page Plays (Jul 3)

Willie Bee · 07-03-07, 09:17 AM

Johnson & D-Backs to crack Cards

Game Time: 07/03/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Randy Johnson's left arm gives Arizona the edge tonight in St. Louis over Todd Wellemeyer's right arm. Back the Diamondbacks this evening on the road at the Cardinals.

Our Tuesday MLB selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Diamondbacks will once again hand the ball to veteran lefty Randy Johnson. Johnson was awful in his last start -- his first since coming off the Disabled List -- and threw 70 pitches in just three innings. But the good news for Johnson is that his oft-troubled back didn't bother him. Instead, he was just rusty from the layoff, and missed his spots.

Now, he will go up against a Cardinals squad that is a poor 2-8 against left-handed starters at home this year. St. Looey will hand the ball to Todd Wellemeyer, who is 2-1, but his ERA is an unsightly 6.04. Take Arizona.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks -130

Willie Bee · 07-03-07, 09:19 AM

Play the Over in Mariners, Royals tilt

Game Time: 07/03/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Both of these teams have been feasting on southpaws. Bet the Over tonight at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City when the Royals entertain the Seattle Mariners for Game 2 of their series.

Yesterday's game was low-scoring, but we should see some more offense this evening between the Mariners and Royals.

Both starters tonight pitched well in their last outing. However, both have struggled for the season overall and both have still seen two of their last three starts finish above the number. Seattle's Ryan Feierabend has an awful 7.80 ERA and 1.733 WHIP during that stretch. Kansas City's Jorge De La Rosa has an even worse 8.04 ERA and 2.361 WHIP during his last three starts. He'll face a Seattle lineup which has pounded left-handed starters for a .302 average and 5.3 runs per game.

While the Mariners last game vs. a southpaw (8-7 win over Boston on 6/26) resulted in a 15-run slug fest, it's the Royals which have seen the Over go a healthy 12-7-3 vs. left-handers for the season. Consider a play on the Over.

Free Pick: Mariners-Royals Over 10

Willie Bee · 07-03-07, 09:20 AM

Cash Over with Cleveland, Detroit

Game Time: 07/03/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

Neither of these starting pitchers, Paul Byrd for the Indians and Nate Robertson for the Tigers, have been in good form lately. Bet the Over when Cleveland opens their series in Detroit tonight.

I'm not sure what's gotten into the AL Champs of late, but they haven't been playing good ball whatsoever. Sunday's 1-0 win over Minnesota salvaged one game of that series for them, and now they have to take on the surging Cleveland Indians (winners in 8 of 10) who are coming off a four game home sweep of Tampa.

The Tribe has taken five of their first seven meetings this season, and that most definitely won't sit well with the home team. That being said, they're going to have to score some runs tonight in order to win this one considering the Tribe has been smashing left-handed pitching at a .320 clip of late, and Nate Robertson would never be confused with one of the more dominant southpaws this league has to offer. In fact, he's been downright putrid this season ringing in with a 4.82 ERA and allowing 89 hits in 71 innings of work. He's been even worse of late evidenced by his 9.28 ERA, and he looks very ripe for a shellacking at the hands of Cleveland's sticks.

However, Paul Byrd has been knocked around this season as well (4.67 ERA and 120 hits in 86.2 innings of work) and the Tigers owe him a beating after he and the Tribe got the best of them back in May by a 7-4 final count. He's coming off one of his best efforts of the season against Oakland, but I would be shocked if he were still bringing it in the 7th inning this time around. Detroit would love nothing more than to get a hold of the division lead during this three game set, but they'll have to break out their sticks in order to do so.

I foresee them getting fat tonight off Byrd, but they'll need to keep the pressure on offensively all night because I'm not a believer in Robertson regardless of how well he looked in his first start off the DL last week. Hit the Over as it improves to 7-1 against the spread between these clubs this year.

Free Pick: Indians-Tigers Over 10

Willie Bee · 07-03-07, 09:21 AM

Take Toronto as dogs in Oakland

Game Time: 07/03/2007 10:05 PM -
By: John Ryan | sportspic.com

The Athletics get their first look at Blue Jays tight-hander Jesse Litsch tonight, and that could spell trouble for the A's. Bet Toronto as road dogs on the West Coast in Oakland.

Let's first take a look at a supporting system that has gone 103-98 and has made 89.7 units since 1997. Play on all underdogs with a moneyline of +150 or more with a starting pitcher who gives up one or more home runs per and starting a rested pitcher who is working on seven or more days of rest.

Here is a second supporting system that has gone 71-54 and has made 48.4 units since 1997. Play on road underdogs with a moneyline of +125 to +175 terrible speed teams averaging 0.35 or fewer stolen bases per game on the season against an opponent with a hot starting pitcher sporting a WHIP <= 1.000 over his last three starts.

Jesse Litsch made four starts for the Blue Jays in May, pitching brilliantly in his major league debut before he was reached for 12 runs and 19 hits over nine innings in his last three outings. The 22-year-old right-hander was 8-2 with a 2.24 ERA between Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Syracuse. He has never faced the A's ,which is essentially another MLB debut. As I have said over the years, it is always far different when facing a pitcher for the first time in live situations then reading scouting reports and watching video of that pitcher.

Oakland's Joe Blanton has been solid all season and is arguably one of the best starters in the AL. But this is just not a good spot for him nor the Athletics. Blanton and the A's are 5-12 (-13.8 Units) against the moneyline in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or fewer runs per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Take Toronto.

Free Pick: Blue Jays +148

Willie Bee · 07-03-07, 09:23 AM

Braves & Dodgers to go over 8½

Game Time: 07/03/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

These two squads have a tendency for the Over when they meet, even in pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine. Bet the Atlanta Braves and Dodgers to go over in Los Angeles this evening.

The Dodgers will be after their third-straight win as they host Atlanta tonight at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. The Dodgers posted an 8-2 victory over the Braves in last night’s series opener as NL all-star catcher Russell Martin matched a career high with four hits. Tonight Randy Wolf goes for his 10th win as he faces Kyle Davies.

When Wolf pitches at home the Over is 7-3 while Davies is 5-2 to the high side on the road. After recording five straight unders, the Braves have come back with five consecutive overs. Of note, in the last 22 meetings between these two, the Over is 17-5, including 7-2 at Chavez Ravine. Look for this one to top the number as well.

Free Pick: Dodgers-Braves Over 8½

Willie Bee · 07-03-07, 09:24 AM

Braves +130 to scalp Dodgers

Game Time: 07/03/2007 10:10 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Kyle Davies has turned things around, as he is in off of back-back solid outings vs. tough American League offenses, so look for an upset here.

The Los Angeles Dodgers behind Derek Lowe took the series opener 8-2 last night from John Smoltz and the Atlanta Braves, but we look for the Braves to even the series at a very nice price tonight.

Sure Kyle Davies has been very erratic, but Randy Wolf has not exactly fooled many hitters in his last three starts, and we just do not feel he deserves to be this big of a favorite here. Wolf has a high 5.60 ERA and a ghastly 1.81 WHIP over those three outings, and he needed 107 pitches just to get though 5.1 innings the last time he faced these Braves, in a 6-4 defeat back in May. In fact, Wolf has failed to record a Quality Start in any of his last five starts vs. Atlanta, as the Braves have seemed to solve this southpaw.

Now Davies is just 3-7 with a 5.42 ERA on the year, but he has turned things around nicely in his last two starts against two potent American League lineups (Detroit, Cleveland). He allowed three earned runs in 5.1 innings in Cleveland, and then followed up that outing with one of his best efforts of the season last start, where he got credit for a Quality Start while limit the Tigers to two runs on just three hits in 6.1 frames.

A repeat of those two performances should be more than enough to keep this weaker Dodger lineup in check, and would pave the way to a nice upset victory.

Free Pick: Braves +130

Willie Bee · 07-03-07, 09:25 AM

Bet Oswalt, Astros versus Phillies

Game Time: 07/03/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

The Astros have not had a very good season up to now. But then, the Phillies are in a slump and facing Houston's ace Roy Oswalt. Lay the chalk on the Astros against the Phils.

It’s not often you catch the Phillies as a major underdog in any setting, but against the light hitting Houston Astros?

If you have any hope of doing well during the dog days of the baseball season, one must focus in on the valued underdog. However, the Astros are hurling veteran RHP Roy Oswalt against the traveling Phillies. In his last four starts versus Philadelphia, Oswalt and Houston are 4-0. Lay the little wood on the Astros.

Free Pick: -158

Willie Bee · 07-03-07, 09:26 AM

Back Cards as pups vs D-Backs

Game Time: 07/03/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

Yeah, sure, the Big Unit is on the mound for Arizona. But he's not the Big Unit of old, and that gives St. Louis increased value tonight. Bet the Cardinals at home vs the D-Backs.

It almost seems laughable to me to see the Cardinals as home pups in this one regardless of the fact that it's the "Big Unit," Randy Johnson, squaring off against the much lesser known Todd Wellemeyer in Game 2 of this four game set.

I can't with good intentions back Johnson here knowing full well that his first start since coming off the DL was a complete debacle. He only managed to go three innings against the Dodgers then, but has been given the thumbs up to increase his output to around 100 pitches this evening. The Cardinals have fared well against lefties at home this year hitting at a .274 clip, and they've had relatively good success over the Big Unit the last couple times they've seen him.

On top of that, Todd Wellemeyer is a perfect 2-0 in the red and white this season, and the Redbirds have yet to lose a game that he's started this season (6-0). Todd has benefited from the tutelage of pitching coach Dave Duncan, and he actually ranks out high according to my pitcher power ratings. He has shown to be wild on occasion, but he's only surrendered 16 earned runs and struck out 30 in 35 innings of work.

With Arizona sputtering of late losing two of their last three series, this looks to be excellent position to grab the home club as underdogs. Look for the Cardinal bats to get to Johnson once again, and for Wellemeyer to pick up his third victory of the season as the Cardinals improve to 7-0 with him leading the way.

Free Pick: Cardinals +124

Willie Bee · 07-03-07, 09:28 AM

Back Blanton & A's vs Jays

Game Time: 07/03/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Tom Freese | sportspic.com

Blue Jays rookie Jesse Litsch and the Toronto bullpen have been in trouble reecntly. Lay the chalk on Joe Blanton and the Athletics when they host the Blue Jays for Game 2 of their series.

Oakland starter Joe Blanton is in awesome strikeout-to-walk form with a 7/1 K/BB ratio in his last three starts.

Toronto starter Jesse Litsch is in terrible strikout-to-walk form with more walks than strikeouts in his last three starts. To make matters worse, rookie Litsch has pitched just nine innings total in his last three starts, and the Blue Jays' bullpen has been getting roughed up of late, allowing 10 earned runs in their most reent 7.1 innings of work. Play On Oakland (Blanton vs. Litsch).

Free Pick: Athletics -158

Willie Bee · 07-03-07, 09:29 AM

Byrd & Indians to pop Tigers

Game Time: 07/03/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Cleveland heads to Motown for a crucial AL Central battle with Detroit. With the Indians riding a 5-game win streak and the Tigers struggling a bit at home, cash with the Tribe.

The red-hot Cleveland Indians have won eight of their last 10 games. Tonight Paul Byrd, 7-3 on the season, is on the mound for the Tribe. Cleveland is 15-5 in their last 20 divisional games. The Indians have won 13 of their last 16 games when facing a left-handed starter.

Detroit has lost six of their last eight home games. Tonight they send left-hander Nate Robertson (4-6, 4.82) to the mound. Detroit is 4-9 in his starts this season. The Tigers are 1-7 in Robertson's last eight starts vs. the Indians, and Detroit has lost five of his last six home starts vs. Cleveland. The Indians are 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the clubs. Play on the Indians.

Free Pick: Indians +119