Monday's Front Page Picks (Jul 02)

[Willie Bee]

Cubs & Nationals Over 8½

Game Time: 07/02/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

With four of the last six between these two squads at RFK Stadium totaling nine runs or more, the Over is the way to play this evening's Cubs, Nationals contest in Washington DC.

Our Monday MLB selection is on the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals to go over the posted total of 8½.

Cubs left-handed veteran Ted Lilly is having another typical Ted Lilly season. He has never been a low ERA pitcher and often gets himself into trouble, but he strikes guys out and occasionally will throw in a gem of a start about one in every five or six times he goes out there. Lilly is in the middle of a bit of a rough patch now, having allowed four or more earned runs in five of his last seven appearances. Lilly does, however, tend to get plenty of run support when he needs it. In fact the Cubs have scored four or more runs in eight of his last ten starts and five or more runs in five of his last eight.

Nats right-handed starter Jason Simontacchi has certainly had his problems this season, and most have come in front of the home crowd. Although Simontacchi has five wins on the year, his record at home is only 2-4 and his ERA is a ghastly 7.76 at RFK Stadium. This is the first meeting of the year for these two at RFK and they certainly have not had trouble scoring runs there in the past as four of the last six contests in DC have gone a total of nine runs or more. Take the Over.

Free Pick: Cubs-Nationals Over 8½

[Willie Bee]

Mets & Rockies Under 10 (-105)

Game Time: 07/02/2007 09:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Tom Glavine has not minded pitching in this altitude before, while Jason Hirsh pitched one of his best games vs. the Mets, so Under is the play.

It seems that the infamous humidor is doing its job this season, as Colorado Rockies home games are averaging a relatively normal 10.03 combined runs per game.

Tom Glavine of the New York Mets has straightened himself out, as the veteran has allowed just one run and seven hits in 14 innings over his last two starts. He has also done well in Colorado in the past, even when the balls were flying out of here. Glavine has eight Quality Starts in his last 10 career appearances vs. the Rockies, and he allowed just four earned runs in each of the two non-quality efforts. His task should be made even easier here by the fact that Colorado is batting just .238 as a team vs. southpaws in the last 10 games.

Now granted Jason Hirsh has struggled badly, but one of the best performances of his life came in his only career outing against the Mets, where he allowed just one earned run and five hits in six innings. He is catching a Mets lineup here that is hitting a measly .234 vs. right-handers in the last 10 contests.

Free Pick: Mets, Rockies Under 10 (-105)

[Willie Bee]

Take Braves and Dodgers Under 7½

Game Time: 07/02/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

Both John Smoltz and Derek Lowe are among the National League leaders in ERA, and with both offenses struggling, look for a safe Under.

The matchup between the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight features two of the top pitchers in Major League history to find success both starting and closing.

Derek Lowe and John Smoltz join Dennis Eckersley as the only three pitchers to post a 20-win season and a 40-save season in their career, while Lowe and Eckersley are the only ones to add a no-hitter to their resume. Lowe has been the victim of non-support this season, as the Dodgers have scored just seven runs in his seven losses. He has a 3.03 ERA for the year, with the Under predictably going 10-6 in all of his starts.

Smoltz is having another solid year, as he is 9-4 with a 2.98 ERA, with the Under also going an identical 10-6 in all his starts. He tossed seven scoreless innings the last time he faced the Dodgers earlier this season, his fourth Quality Start in five career outings against them.

Both teams are struggling to score runs, and Atlanta’s cross-country flight and early morning arrival in Los Angeles won’t help either. It looks like the Under is the way to go tonight at Dodger Stadium.

Free Pick: Braves, Dodgers Under 7½ (-125)

[Willie Bee]

Side with Suppan, Brewers at Pirates

Game Time: 07/02/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Tom Stryker | 10starpicks.com

Having left the unfriendly confines of Wrigley Field, look for the Milwaukee Brewers to get back on the winning track tonight in Pittsburgh against the Pirates behind starter Jeff Suppan.

The red-hot Brewers got cooled a touch at Wrigley Field over the weekend. Don't expect Milwaukee to stay chilled for too long. The Brew Crew has dominated Pittsburgh recently and they'll be prepared to get back on the winning track.

On the hill for Milwaukee will be right-hander Jeff Suppan. History shows that Suppan has held the Pirates in check over the years. With 16 games on the books, Jeff owns a sweet 9-3 record and has been touched for only 44 earned runs and 93 hits in 101.2 innings of work. That adds up to a sensational 3.90 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP.

Pittsburgh will counter with youngster John Van Benschoten. Since getting the call back to the bigs, Van Benschoten hasn't smelled a victory. The right-hander from Kent State has made three starts (0-2 record) and allowed seven earned runs and 12 hits in 14.2 innings. Van Benschoten's biggest problem has been his control. In those three starts, Big John has issued 10 free passes.

The Brewers have won 22 of their last 34 games against division foes and they're making the trek to PNC Park in a really bad mood. Take Milwaukee with Suppan.

Free Pick: Brewers -139

[Willie Bee]

Rangers & McCarthy +150 to stun Red Sox

Game Time: 07/02/2007 07:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Rangers surprised the Red Sox in two of the first three games of this series, and we feel that Texas has the pitching edge for another upset here.

The Texas Rangers have taken two of the first three games of this series with the Boston Red Sox, and we feel that the Rangers are poised for another upset given this pitching matchup.

Brandon McCarthy is currently in fine form for Texas, as he has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts. He has a 3.26 ERA with a nice 1.22 WHIP during this stretch. Also, McCarthy tossed a beauty in his only career outing here in Fenway Park, pitching seven scoreless innings while allowing just three hits as a member of the Chicago White Sox.

Now Kason Gabbard is taking the spot of the injured Curt Schilling in the Red Sox rotation, and he certainly floundered in his first go-around. Gabbard lasted just 3.1 innings in his start in Seattle, needing 82 pitches primarily due to the six walks to go along with the six hits that he allowed. This was not the first time that he struggled with his control, so we do not think pitching at home will make much of a difference tonight.

Now granted the Red Sox have the lowest bullpen ERA in the American League at 2.91, but the Texas bullpen checks in tied for third with Seattle at 3.50, so we like the chances of the underdog Rangers holding any lead they can build vs. Gabbard.

Free Pick: Rangers +150

[Willie Bee]

Play Moyer & Phillies at Astros

Game Time: 07/02/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Despite having taken a weekend series from the Rockies, the Astros are still struggling. Make your play on Jamie Moyer and the Phillies tonight when they open a series in Houston.

The Phillies avoided the 4-game sweep with a win vs. the Mets yesterday. Tonight the Phillies send 7-5 Jamie Moyer to the mound to continue the winning.

Philadelphia is 13-6 in Moyer's last 19 starts. In their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter the Phillies are 9-2. Philadelphia is 12-4 in their last 16 games vs. NL Central opponents.

The Astros are 7-15 in their last 22 series openers. Houston is 4-7 in their last 11 games. Woody Williams hasn't been what the Astros expected when the signed him. He's 3-10 on the year with a 5.58 ERA. In his last five starts vs. the Phillies his team's record is 1-4. Play on the Phillies.

Free Pick: Phillies -114