Milwaukee/Pittsburgh over (9 -115): There are a lot of factors giving small pressure to the over. There's questionable piching all around, and of course Milwaukee has a strong offense. Pittsburgh has a weaker offense, but they do have some pop, and can wake up a bit at times, especially against mediocre starters like Suppan.
It will help if there's no strong wind blowing in, and of course if most of the bigger bats are in, which they should be. But overall, there looks to be value at the over 9 here. Taking this at 9 instead of 9.5 at plus odds has extra value IMO, because of the statistical likelihoods involved. If each team gets to 4, a push is guaranteed, and the likelihood of that makes it worthwhile to take it at 9 instead of 9.5.
Texas/Boston under (11 -115): Texas starter Brendan McCarthy has a lot of potential, and he has thrown some solid starts against some good lineups so far this year. He is coming off of the DL, not because of arm troubles, but because of blister problems. Pitchers coming off of the DL for non-arm related problems often get a boost, because they get a break and a rest, and their injuries are often healed and not likely to linger or affect their pitching ability.
On the other side, Kason Gabbard is not a powerhouse, but he may be learning how to be effective in the majors. He pitched decently in the minors this year, and may well have a decent start here after a stumble in his first game back last week.
But the major factor for this under bet is the total of 11. That is a highish total considering the pitching involved. Both teams have effective bullpens, and neither team is hitting terribly well right now. It will take an extra push or two for the game to hit 12, so the under has value IMO.
Minnesota ML (+170), over (9 -125): This ML is just too high for a Yankee team that is struggling to win consistently. There is a general impression that the Yankees have a fearsome lineup, but that is not really the case. On most days they send out a lineup that involves decent 1-3 hitters, is legitimately strong the 4-5-6 slots, and then weak at 7-9. That is a lineup very similar to many in the AL, including Minnesota's.
Both starters here will be vulnerable, each capable of a strong 6 innings, but more likely to have a mediocre 6, giving up 3 or 4 runs or so. Minnesota is likely to be in this game to the end, and they have a pen capable of protecting small leads on the road. Add it all up, and there is value with Minnesota as a big underdog, and with the over at a relatively modest total of 9.
Seattle/Kansas City over (8 -105): Both starters have generally good reputations this year, and that has resulted in a low total for this game. But while Meche can be quite good at times, just as often he has decidedly mediocre starts, giving up 3-5 runs. Seattle has a lively offense, which often gets a boost when they go on the road, and if Meche is off, Seattle will be able to take advantage.
Felix has shown flashes of dominance this year, but much more often, he has gotten hit, sometimes modestly, sometimes badly. Unless he is dominant, KC will be able to get to him for 2 or 3 runs at least, with little trouble.
This line is low enough that even if one starter does have a dominant outing, a push or even a win on the over will still be within reasonable reach if the other starter is not dominating. It will take unusually good pitching to keep this game at 7 or lower, so there is value with the over IMO.
Dodgers ML (-120): Atlanta does appear to be showing signs of coming out of their mid-season funk, but this game is likely to challenge them in ways they are not ready to handle yet, and being able to go against them at small favorite odds has value IMO.
John Smoltz is gritty and gutsy, but he is having shoulder problems, and even if he is able to pitch strong innings here, he is certain not to be overused. At that point, Atlanta will have to call on their overworked and questionable bullpen, which is not a nice thought on the road against the Dodger lineup, which is steady and balanced, if unspectacular.
Over the game, the Dodgers should be able to put together a few runs against Smoltz and his shoulder, and the Braves' pen, through their hitting/running combo. While the Dodgers are not the kind of team that can overpower an effective starter, they are a great team to have against a starter like Smoltz, due to their speed and balance. They should be able to make the most out of whatever runners they can get against Smoltz.
They may not need much, because Atlanta is likely to have offensive problems against Derek Lowe. Atlanta was able to produce well against Florida's shaky pitching in their last series, but Lowe and the Dodger pen will be a different story. If Lowe is on his game, there won't be much Atlanta will be able to do about it.
There's a solid chance the Dodgers will come out of this game with a close, low-scoring win, and the line of -120 for them is a bit lower than I think it should be.
It will help if there's no strong wind blowing in, and of course if most of the bigger bats are in, which they should be. But overall, there looks to be value at the over 9 here. Taking this at 9 instead of 9.5 at plus odds has extra value IMO, because of the statistical likelihoods involved. If each team gets to 4, a push is guaranteed, and the likelihood of that makes it worthwhile to take it at 9 instead of 9.5.
Texas/Boston under (11 -115): Texas starter Brendan McCarthy has a lot of potential, and he has thrown some solid starts against some good lineups so far this year. He is coming off of the DL, not because of arm troubles, but because of blister problems. Pitchers coming off of the DL for non-arm related problems often get a boost, because they get a break and a rest, and their injuries are often healed and not likely to linger or affect their pitching ability.
On the other side, Kason Gabbard is not a powerhouse, but he may be learning how to be effective in the majors. He pitched decently in the minors this year, and may well have a decent start here after a stumble in his first game back last week.
But the major factor for this under bet is the total of 11. That is a highish total considering the pitching involved. Both teams have effective bullpens, and neither team is hitting terribly well right now. It will take an extra push or two for the game to hit 12, so the under has value IMO.
Minnesota ML (+170), over (9 -125): This ML is just too high for a Yankee team that is struggling to win consistently. There is a general impression that the Yankees have a fearsome lineup, but that is not really the case. On most days they send out a lineup that involves decent 1-3 hitters, is legitimately strong the 4-5-6 slots, and then weak at 7-9. That is a lineup very similar to many in the AL, including Minnesota's.
Both starters here will be vulnerable, each capable of a strong 6 innings, but more likely to have a mediocre 6, giving up 3 or 4 runs or so. Minnesota is likely to be in this game to the end, and they have a pen capable of protecting small leads on the road. Add it all up, and there is value with Minnesota as a big underdog, and with the over at a relatively modest total of 9.
Seattle/Kansas City over (8 -105): Both starters have generally good reputations this year, and that has resulted in a low total for this game. But while Meche can be quite good at times, just as often he has decidedly mediocre starts, giving up 3-5 runs. Seattle has a lively offense, which often gets a boost when they go on the road, and if Meche is off, Seattle will be able to take advantage.
Felix has shown flashes of dominance this year, but much more often, he has gotten hit, sometimes modestly, sometimes badly. Unless he is dominant, KC will be able to get to him for 2 or 3 runs at least, with little trouble.
This line is low enough that even if one starter does have a dominant outing, a push or even a win on the over will still be within reasonable reach if the other starter is not dominating. It will take unusually good pitching to keep this game at 7 or lower, so there is value with the over IMO.
Dodgers ML (-120): Atlanta does appear to be showing signs of coming out of their mid-season funk, but this game is likely to challenge them in ways they are not ready to handle yet, and being able to go against them at small favorite odds has value IMO.
John Smoltz is gritty and gutsy, but he is having shoulder problems, and even if he is able to pitch strong innings here, he is certain not to be overused. At that point, Atlanta will have to call on their overworked and questionable bullpen, which is not a nice thought on the road against the Dodger lineup, which is steady and balanced, if unspectacular.
Over the game, the Dodgers should be able to put together a few runs against Smoltz and his shoulder, and the Braves' pen, through their hitting/running combo. While the Dodgers are not the kind of team that can overpower an effective starter, they are a great team to have against a starter like Smoltz, due to their speed and balance. They should be able to make the most out of whatever runners they can get against Smoltz.
They may not need much, because Atlanta is likely to have offensive problems against Derek Lowe. Atlanta was able to produce well against Florida's shaky pitching in their last series, but Lowe and the Dodger pen will be a different story. If Lowe is on his game, there won't be much Atlanta will be able to do about it.
There's a solid chance the Dodgers will come out of this game with a close, low-scoring win, and the line of -120 for them is a bit lower than I think it should be.
