Saturday

[Razz]

Lost a little Friday unless the Jays come back. They got enough hits to win, just no key hits. That's why the Mariners are a contender and they aren't. Oh well. Made one stupid play, and then had a late win and a late loss.

Phillies +113
Sosa's a bum, the Phillies crush righties (31-19, 5.7 rpg. Best in the NL by 0.8 rpg). The Mets hits lefties pretty well (14-11, 5.1 rpg), but they've scored the fewest runs in all of baseball this month, and even against a rookie, they could be held in check here.

Nationals +153
They blew a late lead for me Friday, I'll go with them again Saturday with the Pirates fan staging a protest walkout at the game. Gorzo is a fantastic pitcher, but simply an overlay here with a hapless offense and bullpen.

Dodgers +102 - Big Play
In Brad Penny's last 11 starts, he's given up either 0 or 1 run nine times. He's 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA/1.07 WHIP/.213 BAA at home. Peavy has been great too, but he's given up 3 or more runs in four of his last five starts. The Dodgers have the better lineup and a bullpen that is only slightly worse. At home, I like them to even the series.

Orioles Team Total Over ? (Will bet tomorrow)
I'll say it again. Bartolo Colon is not right. Last six starts - 32.2 IP, 53 hits, 14 BB, 33 runs, 31 ER, 8.54 ERA, WHIP over 2. The Orioles aren't seeming to feel the loss of Tejada offensively, and they have had pretty good success against Colon when he was at the top of his game, which he clearly isn't at the moment.

Will add the Reds if they are a dog. Good luck everyone.

[bigboydan]

I'm liking that over in the Os/Halo's game, so needless to say I can see why you really like the O's team total tomorrow Razz.

[Rusted Trombone]

It's hard to give up on a (-104) for Peavy but I agree with you about Penny. The run line for the Dodgers -1 1/2 (+230) is tempting too.

[Checkerboard]

Will tag along on the LA Dodgers play. Didn't happen last night for me with them, but I think you're right on with your reasoning for tonight's game. Good luck.

[The HG]

Sorry to say, but I totally disagree on most of these. Or it could be good news for you perhaps.

Sosa is not a bum. He is inconsistent. He's got ability, and has proven that at the major league level, which is something the Philly starter has not. True, Sosa is set up for a weak start here, and as with yesterday, if the Mets were a huge favorite, I'd take Philly. But they're not at all. The Philly starter is not likely to be ready for prime time. He was not particularly effective in the minors. If Sosa does happen to have a good start, which is entirely possible, this will be a rout unless Happ has an unexpectedly good start. Even then, the Mets will still be in contention.

Washington is in a serious offensive rut right now, and facing Gorzelanny is not going to help them get out of it. Gorzelanny has faced some tough lineups lately, and done alright, but this start sets him up for an easier time. Plus, Washington has never faced him before, which benefits him. True, Pittsbugh's lineup and bullpen are no great entities, but they probably won't be needed to do anything but marginally well, just like Friday. Simontacchi can be ok, but Pittsburgh should be able to get to him enough to pull out a close win, just like Friday.

I agree on the Dodgers, although this is basically a toss-up. Still I think getting any kind of plus odds with LA in this one has some value.

Colon is having problems for sure, but I like the Angels in this game on the RL. Although I think an Os team total bet is not bad either, for all your reasons.

I like St. Louis in that game, albeit much more on the RL. Lohse has a very high degree of volatility. If he is on, Cincinnati should win unless their bullpen has an unusually big collapse. But if he is off, St. Louis will be able to build a lead that will be tough to come back from.

[onlooker]

I am not on or against any of them Razz. Good luck, and I hope you sweep the board.