Friday's Front Page Picks (Jun 29)

Willie Bee · 06-29-07, 10:02 AM

Pick White Sox with Contreras over Royals

Game Time: 06/29/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The White Sox are having a down year, but they have dominated the series with the Royals, even this season, so go with Contreras at this price.

What kind of odds could you have gotten at the beginning of the season that in a game between the Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals at the end of June which featured Jose Contreras vs. Brian Bannister, that that the line would be close to a Pick?

It is quite amazing and it is also not a very good reflection on the White Sox right now, because it is not as if the Royals are tearing it up. Kansas City is 33-46 and once again in the cellar of the American League Central Division, although to be fair, their record is not that much worse than Chicago's right now.

However, the White Sox are just getting healthy again, while the Royals are moving in the other direction, with a total of ten players on the Disabled List with various injuries. Let us not forget also that this is a series that Chicago has historically dominated, and even this season when the Sox are admittedly not nearly as good as they have been in recent years, they have still taken four of five games from the Royals to this point.

Contreras has done his best work on the road this season, as he has an ERA of 3.94 when pitching outside of the Windy City. The White Sox have also had a lot of success against the Royals when Contreras has started, winning eight of his last 10 starts against them since 2004, so take Chicago.

Free Pick: White Sox -105

Willie Bee · 06-29-07, 10:03 AM

A's +160 to make the grade at Yankees

Game Time: 06/29/2007 07:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The linemakers continue to overvalue the Yankees despite their recent losing ways, so the Athletics are the play tonight at another fat price.

The oddsmakers keep putting up these ridiculously high odds on the New York Yankees, despite the fact that they are 1-8 from a betting standpoint in the last nine games (granted, last night’s game was not an official loss in the MLB Standings, but we cashed Baltimore +165).

They are now stepping up in class, facing a very good Oakland Athletics team, yet we are still getting a juicy price on the A’s. Now we realize that Oakland starter Joe Kennedy is 2-5, and the Athletics are just 3-11 in all of his starts, but Kennedy has actually pitched better then that, as evidenced by his decent 3.98 ERA. His task should be made easier here by the fact that the Yankees continue to struggle with left-handed pitching lately, hitting an anemic .212 vs. southpaws the last 10 games.

Now Mussina has pitched better lately, but the Yankees have still lost his last two starts, and he has a horrible 5.58 ERA here at home this season, with the Yankees going 2-3 in those games. Mussina also lost both of his starts vs. Oakland last season, and that was when he was a much better pitcher than he is now.

Finally, the Athletics are 51-28, 64.6 percent during the month of June over the last three years, and we simply cannot pass them up at this inflated number.

Free Pick: Athletics +160

Willie Bee · 06-29-07, 10:04 AM

Take Diamondbacks and Giants Under 8½ (+100)

Game Time: 06/29/2007 10:15 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

The series between the Diamondbacks and Giants has historically been an Under one, so go Under again tonight with Morris and his 2.79 home ERA.

The Arizona Diamondbacks arrive in San Francisco to face the Giants as the third place team in the National League West after losing three out of four to the new division leaders, the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Pitching was a problem for the Diamondbacks in the Dodger series, with Randy Johnson going just three innings yesterday in his first assignment since coming off of the Disabled List. That in turn forced Manager Bob Melvin to use his already thin and tired bullpen more than he had wished. Tonight he will be looking to veteran Livan Hernandez to give him some innings. Hernandez has recorded Quality Starts in each of his last four outings vs. the Giants, and the Under is 6-2 in all of his road starts this season.

Matt Morris gets the start for the Giants, and has faced the Diamondbacks twice this season, losing both games. However, he tossed a Complete Game in the second outing, an unlucky 1-0 loss in the dessert. Morris has been at his best at home this year, where he is 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA, with the Under going 5-2.

Finally, the Under is 8-1-3 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings, so go Under again tonight.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks, Giants Under 8½ (+100)

Willie Bee · 06-29-07, 10:05 AM

White Sox & Royals Under 9

Game Time: 06/29/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Dennis Macklin | procappers.com

With both offenses being in slumps should keep recent Under trends going for both Chicago and Kansas City. Play the Under this evening when the Royals host the White Sox.

Both of these teams are currently on significant under runs, the White Sox eight straight and the Royals 4-1 over their last five and 7-3 in their last 10.

While neither of tonight's starters have overwhelming statistical numbers, this is a good spot for both. Chicago's Jose Contreras had been an Under machine prior to last year's All-Star break, at one point the Under cashing in 32-9 of his 41 starts. The big righty is 7-2 in his last 11 starts vs the Royals with a 2.96 ERA. Kansas City's Brian Bannister is 4-4 with respectable 3.78 ERA and Royals are 6-2 under in his starts.

Neither team is hitting much over their last seven and both have been getting by on solid pitching. Play the Under.

Free Pick: White Sox-Royals Under 9

Willie Bee · 06-29-07, 10:10 AM

Braves, James to hook Marlins

Game Time: 06/29/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

The Braves have provided solid return in the -100 to -125 price range, and that makes Atlanta the right play this evening when they travel to Florida to open a series with the Marlins.

We are getting very good value with the Braves on the road who are 7-2 this season as a road favorite of -100 to -125.

The Braves have the better pitcher on the mound tonight in Chuck James, and they look to make it four wins in a row against a Florida team that is just 1-4 in their last five games. This is also Florida's fourth straight game at home and James has only allowed over six hits just once in his last six starts for the Braves.

Free Pick: Braves -115

Willie Bee · 06-29-07, 10:11 AM

Back Brewers & Gallardo +110 at Cubs

Game Time: 06/29/2007 02:20 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Youngster Yovani Gallardo looks like the real deal, and with Milwaukee punishing left-handed pitching lately, the Brewers are the play today.

Yovani Gallardo was highly touted coming out of the AAA level for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he has not disappointed in his two Major League starts.

Gallardo had an amazing 110 strikeouts against just 28 walks in 77.2 minor league innings, and he has recorded Quality Starts in each of his first two big league outings, allowing four runs and only nine hits in 13.1 innings with 12 strikeouts. More importantly, he doubled his strikeout total from four to eight in his first two starts, and he is facing a Chicago Cubs lineup that has quite a few free swingers.

The Cubs counter with Rich Hill, who has cooled off somewhat after a very hot start. While Hill still has a nice 3.13 ERA and 1.06 WHIP for the whole year, those figures jump to a hefty 5.28 and 1.50 over the last three starts. Also, Hill lost to the Brewers the last time he pitched against them here in Wrigley Field, allowing four earned runs in 6.2 innings.

Finally, the Brewers have pummeled left-handed pitching to the tune of a .327 team batting average over the last 10 games, so we look for them to get to Hill again today.

Free Pick: Brewers +110

Willie Bee · 06-29-07, 10:12 AM

Play Mets, Phillies Over 10 (Gm 1)

Game Time: 06/29/2007 01:35 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Mets and Phillies open a 3-day, 4-game set in the City of Brotherly Love this afternoon in a day-night twinbill. Bet the Over in Game 1 between New York and Philadelphia.

The Mets have played the Over in six of their last eight games. New York has played the Over in four of their last five road games vs. right handed starters. The Over is 6-2 in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Both games Orlando Hernandez has started in Philadelphia played over the total.

The Over is 8-2 in Philadelphia's last 10 games. The Over is 6-2 in their last eight games vs. NL East opponents. The Phillies have played the Over in seven of their last eight home games. Philadelphia's bullpen is tired, and with J.D. Durbin on the mound making his first start of the season, you can bet a lot of runs will be scored. Play the Over.

Free Pick: Mets-Phillies Over 10