Thursday's Front Page Picks (Jun 28)

[Willie Bee]

Dog the Reds +145 at Phillies

Game Time: 06/28/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Cincinnati’s Matt Belisle has been a better pitcher on the road than at home this year, and with Adam Eaton struggling at home, look for an upset.

The Cincinnati Reds close out their three-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies tonight behind Matt Belisle.

Belisle’s road ERA of 3.91 is actually more than 1.50 runs better than his home ERA of 5.51 this season. Meanwhile, Philadelphia right-hander Adam Eaton is sporting a bloated 5.53 ERA in front of the hometown faithful this year.

Look for Eaton to drop to 2-5 in his last seven team starts during the month of June here this evening.

Free Pick: Reds +145

[Willie Bee]

Play Tigers with Rogers -1½ over Rangers

Game Time: 06/28/2007 01:05 PM -
By: Rocky Atkinson | rocketmansports.net

Kenny Rogers looked sharp in his seasonal debut, and the potent Detroit offense should feast on Millwood, so play the Tigers on the runline.

The Detroit Tigers may have the hottest offense in baseball, and they get the call today with The Gambler vs. Kevin Millwood and the Texas Rangers.

The Tigers are scoring 6.1 runs per game overall this season, including 5.8 RPG at home and 5.8 RPG against right-handed starter. That is bad news for right-hander Millwood, who has a 7.31 ERA overall this year. Kenny Rogers went 6 innings without allowing an earned run in his first start this season, and he was surprisingly sharp vs. the Atlanta Braves.

Rogers also has a 3.89 ERA overall vs. the Rangers since 1997, so we recommend a play on the Tigers on the runline today!

Free Pick: Tigers -1½ (+105)

[Willie Bee]

Bet Cards to shuffle Mets at Shea

Game Time: 06/28/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

The Cardinals are not even close to the same team that topped the Mets in the NLCS last year. But at this price, they're solid dogs to play this evening at Shea Stadium in New York.

The Mets won a rain shortened game last night to even up their series with the Cardinals at a game a piece. I'm expecting the defending champs to really put forth an optimum effort in this spot knowing full well that they need to get as many series wins under the belts to get back in the thick of the NL Central race.

Orlando 'El Duque' Hernandez put forth one of his best efforts of the year his last time out when he threw seven innings of shutout ball against Oakland. He threw a season-high 119 pitches that game, and he'll be heading back to the bump on only four days rest this evening. I'm expecting the lack of downtime to be his downfall tonight as he hasn't pitched on such a short amount of rest after throwing so many pitches his last time out. The Redbirds have been crushing right-handed pitching to the tune of a .311 batting average their last 10 games, so I'm expecting St. Louis' offense to get healthy tonight against the cagey vet.

When Adam Wainwright is on, he's flat out filthy. He enters tonight's start in good form having gone 2-1 in his last three outings with a 2.57 ERA, and he's only surrendered 17 hits in 21 innings of work. The Mets have struggled mightily against right-handers this season, and I expect Mr. Wainwright to give them fits tonight with this being the first time they've seen him in the starters role. There's excellent value here on the Redbirds as Hernandez will come into this one a bit fatigued, and I give the batting edge to the Cards here since they've faced the Cuban defect in the past.

Hit up the road pup as they even this series and head into Cincinnati very happy campers.

Free Pick: Cardinals +170

[Willie Bee]

Take Tigers -200 to roar against Texas

Game Time: 06/28/2007 01:05 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

The Tigers have the worst home record of any division leader, but they should get well quickly today as they overpower Millwood and the Rangers.

Kenny Rogers allowed just two hits and no runs in his first outing of the year for the Detroit Tigers, and he faces the struggling Kevin Millwood, who is 4-6 with a 7.31 ERA for the Texas Rangers.

The Tigers have lost four straight and eight of their last 11 games at home, where their 18-15 record is the worst home mark of any division leader. Meanwhile, the Rangers have won 11 of their last 17 games. However a correction is in order today, as Detroit is 7-2 in their last nine games overall and 26-9 in their last 35 games when favored.

The home losing streak comes to an end today as Kenny Rogers and the Tigers overpower the Rangers.

Free Pick: Tigers -200

[Willie Bee]

Rangers +180 to surprise Tigers again

Game Time: 06/28/2007 01:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Detroit has been a better road team than home team for two years, and with Millwood showing some good signs lately, look for a big upset.

The Texas Rangers have surprised the Detroit Tigers in the first two games of this series, as we will look for a Texas sweep today at yet another generous price.

For whatever reason, the Tigers have not been at their best here at home this season, going a rather pedestrian 18-16 compared to 27-15 on the road. This continues their pattern from last season, when Detroit won three more games on the road (49-32) than at home (46-35). Kenny Rogers is making his second start of the year, and while he pitched extremely well in his seasonal debut allowing just two hits in six scoreless innings, the second start back from an injury is usually the most likely time that a pitcher suffers muscle soreness. Besides, Rogers did not exactly fool the Texas batters in three starts against them last season, allowing 27 hits in 17.1 innings.

Now granted Millwood has terrible numbers this year, but remember he was pitching hurt early in the season before finally going on the Disabled List, and he has actually showed some signs of turning things around lately. He recorded a season-high 10 strikeouts two starts back, and followed up that effort with his first Quality Start since April in his last outing. Millwood also likes pitching in this stadium, with Quality Starts in both of his career outings at Comerica Park, both coming last season vs. the American League Champions.

Finally, should this issue still be in doubt late, it is the big underdog Rangers that have the superior bullpen. Texas is fifth in the AL with a bullpen ERA of 3.59, while Detroit is third from the bottom with a 5.25 pen ERA, ahead of only the White Sox and Tampa Bay.

Free Pick: Rangers +180

[Willie Bee]

Bet a unit on Big Unit & D-Backs

Game Time: 06/28/2007 06:40 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

The matchup of left-handers in the desert clearly favors the Diamondbacks. Back Arizona with Randy Johnson on the mound when they close out their home series with the Dodgers.

Former Cy Young award winner and today's starter for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Randy Johnson, comes of the disabled list to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Before being sidelined, Johnson was in top form going 4-0 along with a very stingy 1.52 ERA in five starts. Look for him to resume where he left off, as the Diamondbacks make it two in a row over the Dodgers. Randy Wolf, the Dodgers' starter, has lost his last two starts, giving up four runs in each of them. He's 2-3 with a 6.51 ERA this month.

The D-Backs are 30-10 this season as -110 or more favorites. Play on Arizona.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks -125

[Willie Bee]

Back A’s +105 with Blanton as dog vs. Indians

Game Time: 06/28/2007 12:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

While these pitchers have similar records, their forms could not be more different, so go with the A’s and the hot Blanton vs. the ice-cold Byrd.

The Oakland Athletics have finally scored some runs the last two games, and they also appear to have the pitching edge in this matchup with the Cleveland Indians.

Oakland starter Joe Blanton has been very solid all season, going 7-4 with a nice 3.19 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, and he is in raging current form. Blanton has reeled off five consecutive Quality Starts, posting an amazing 1.14 ERA and a miniscule 0.82 WHIP during this sizzling stretch! He pitched eight scoreless innings while allowing just five hits at New York in his last start against the Mets last Saturday.

Now Paul Byrd is 6-3 for the Tribe, but he has received a lot of run support this year, as he actually has a poor 5.93 ERA and 1.56 WHIP here at home in Jacobs Field. Byrd is not sharp right now either, as he has an 8.62 ERA in his last three outings and has allowed double-digit hit totals in three of his last four appearances.

We do not expect Byrd to get as much run support today the way that Blanton is pitching right now, so we will side with the A’s as a small underdog in this spot.

Free Pick: Athletics +105

[Willie Bee]

Take Tigers, Rogers to beat Rangers

Game Time: 06/28/2007 01:05 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

Tigers southpaw Kenny Rogers came off the DL strong last week and will keep that going this afternoon against his former Rangers club. Back Detroit at home versus Texas.

Take Detroit here Thursday afternoon since Kenny Rogers looked great in his first start back off the DL allowing just two hits over six innings on the road against a very good Atlanta ball club.

Wednesday's rainout gave Rogers one extra day of rest after his strong stint last Friday. That could be important when facing a Rangers team he has struggled against somewhat with a 1-1 record in 4.67 ERA and WHIP over 2.00 in his last three starts against them.

Texas right-hander Kevin Millwood has struggled this season with an ERA of 7.31 and Detroit is hitting .294 as a team at home this season while averaging 5.8 rpg. Play Detroit.

Free Pick: Tigers -194