Wednesday's Front Page Plays (Jun 27)

Willie Bee · 06-27-07, 09:45 AM

Look for Dodgers, Diamondbacks to go Under 7½

Game Time: 06/27/2007 09:40 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

It may be tough to tell the starting pitchers apart here, as both Lowe and Webb are among the best ground-ball pitchers in the game, so take the Under.

Derek Lowe of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Brandon Webb of the Arizona Diamondbacks square off tonight in what promises to be a low scoring game with lots of outs via the groundball.

Lowe is first in the Major Leagues with a 3.23 ground-out to fly-out ratio, while Webb follows closely behind. These hurlers are almost mirror images of one another, as both men possess great sinkers and nasty sliders. Lowe has eight wins and could easily have 11 or 12 with any kind of run support, and he is 3-1 in June with a 2.64 ERA. Webb has also pitched in tough luck this month, going just 3-2 despite a nice 2.12 ERA.

No matter how you cut it, this game is going to be quickly played and low scoring, so take the Under.

Free Pick: Dodgers, Diamondbacks Under 7½ (-115)

Willie Bee · 06-27-07, 09:46 AM

Royals & Angels Under 9

Game Time: 06/27/2007 03:35 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Both starters, KC's Jorge de la Rosa and Anaheim's Jered Weaver, are lights-out pitchers in the sunlight. Play the Royals and Angels to finish under the total this afternoon.

The Angels have seen the Under go a healthy 18-8 in their afternoon games this season. They have also seen the Under go 7-1-1 the last nine times they faced a left-handed starter at home. This should prove to be another low-scoring affair.

Royals starter Jorge De La Rosa got rocked by his former team (Milwaukee) in his last start. That came at night though, and he's been a much different pitcher when starting during the afternoon. Indeed, in three afternoon starts, De La Rosa is 2-0 with a miniscule 1.93 ERA, holding opposing hitters to a mere .194 batting average. De La Rosa has also been decent against the Angels, going 1-1 with a respectable 3.29 ERA and 1.024 WHIP. Those games both stayed below the number with scores of 5-2 last September and 3-1 this May.

Like his opponent, the Angels' Jered Weaver has been strong when pitching during the afternoon, going 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA. He has also dominated the Royals over his career, recording a 1.83 ERA in three starts. Not surprisingly, all three of those games finished beneath the total with scores of 4-1, 3-1 and 5-2. Consider a play on the Under.

Free Pick: Royals-Angels Under 9

Willie Bee · 06-27-07, 09:49 AM

Bedard & Orioles +120 to upset Clemens & Yankees

Game Time: 06/27/2007 07:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Roger Clemens has had a great career, but the underrated Eric Bedard is the better pitcher right now, giving him instant value as a home dog here.

Eric Bedard of the Baltimore Orioles is one of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball, and we feel he offers great value as a home underdog vs. the aging Roger Clemens and the New York Yankees.

Bedard may be 5-4, but do not let that record fool you as he has pitched much better than that, and the Baltimore bullpen has blown several leads for him. Bedard has five different pitches that he throws for strikes, including three types of curveballs, and as a result, he has an excellent 2.95 ERA in 42.2 home innings, covering seven starts. Amazingly, the big southpaw has now allowed three runs or less in 10 straight outings, and he has also posted Quality Starts in each of his last three appearances against the Yankees.

The Yankees are now 1-6 on this road trip after dropping the series opener to the Orioles 3-2 here last night, and the last thing they want to do now is face a quality left-hander, as they are hitting just .221 vs. left-handed pitching the last 10 games. Roger Clemens is already making his fourth start as a Yankee this year, and he even pitched one inning in relief on Sunday. Clemens must be considered a disappointment so far with his 5.09 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, and he has already given up three home runs in just 17.2 innings.

Clemens has had an illustrious career, but Bedard is simply the better pitcher at this moment in time, and he is definitely worth an investment as a home puppy.

Free Pick: Orioles +120

Willie Bee · 06-27-07, 09:51 AM

Take Phillies with Moyer -140 over Reds

Game Time: 06/27/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Jamie Moyer has been brilliant at home, be it with the Phillies or the Mariners, so look for him to lead Philadelphia to victory tonight.

With apologies to Los Angeles Angels hurler Ervin Santana, no pitcher is better at home than Jamie Moyer of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Over the last three seasons, Moyer has led his teams to 30 wins in 41 home starts, including 23-6 as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds are a horrific 10-19 this year vs. southpaws, while the Phillies are a solid 30-18 vs. right-handers.

Take the Phils to win their third straight game.

Free Pick: Phillies -140

Willie Bee · 06-27-07, 09:57 AM

Win with Royals, Angels Over 9

Game Time: 06/27/2007 03:35 PM -
By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com

The Royals have seen a surge on offense with 17 runs the last two games. And the Angels hit left-handers very well this season. Cash with the over this afternoon in the Anaheim matinee.

The Royals have scored 17 runs in two games here, both huge underdog wins. Kansas City's bats are hot.

The problem today is Jorge De La Rosa takes the hill for KC, and he is a human hit-making machine for opponents. Anaheim will bounce back tonight with plenty of hits of their own, and they are hitting southpaws at .319 as a team the last 10 times out. Look for a shootout here; I like the Over.

Free Pick: Royals-Angels Over 9

Willie Bee · 06-27-07, 09:59 AM

Bet Braves on run line vs Nats

Game Time: 06/27/2007 07:35 PM -
By: Mike Devine | 10starpicks.com

Andruw Jones and the Braves appear to have broken out of their offensive doldrums. Back Atlanta at home tonight on the run line when they conclude their series against the Nationals.

John Smoltz has dominated the Nationals franchise going a gaudy 18-11 with a 2.67 ERA over his career, and also dominated them from the bullpen when he served as the Braves closer.

The Braves finally seem to have broken out of their offensive slump and, although it has been against the Nationals, it still has been impressive. Andruw Jones finally broke his hideous 1-31 slump with a three-run homer last night and he hadn't had an extra base hit in about a month. Baseball is a game of streaks and slumps, and the Braves could be coming out of their funk courtesy of the Nationals. With their ace John Smoltz on the hill, we like the Braves to keep it going and get a comfortable win.

Free Pick: Braves -1½ (-105)

Willie Bee · 06-27-07, 10:00 AM

Play Astros +146 at Brewers

Game Time: 06/27/2007 02:05 PM -
By: Vernon Croy | 10starpicks.com

The Astros are bad, but there's some solid value on them this afternoon. Play Houston in the underdog role when they complete their series in Milwaukee versus the Brewers.

There is very good value here Wednesday afternoon with Houston since Milwaukee's Jeff Suppan has struggled over his last three starts with an ERA of 10.12 even though he has allowed just one homerun over those starts.

Astros right-hander Woody Williams has owned the Brewers in the past with a 12-6 record and an ERA of just 2.93. The last time he pitched in Milwaukee, he allowed just one run in six innings to pick up the win. Houston avoids the sweep on the road today.

Free Pick: Astros +146

Willie Bee · 06-27-07, 10:01 AM

Ride Rangers to rewards at Detroit

Game Time: 06/27/2007 01:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | sportspic.com

After a horrible start to the season, the Rangers are one of thoe hottest teams going right now. Take Texas as the decided underdogs this afternoon in Detroit versus the Tigers.

The Texas Rangers enter into this road contest against the Detroit Tigers on fire having won six of their last seven and nine of their last 12.

The Texas offense has scored an average of 7.14 RPG during their last seven games, and are hitting .310 during that span. With a full head of steam behind them, the Rangers look like a very viable option in this spot, no matter who the Tigers send to the hill to face them here today.

Final Notes & Key Trends: The Rangers are 9-4 in their last 13 as road underdogs when Kevin Millwood, their starter this afternoon, is throwing. The Rangers are 4-0 in Millwood's last four road starts against a winning team. Texas is a perfect 7-0 in their last seven when Millwood starts on the road against a team outscoring their opposition by 0.5 RPG or more on the season. Motown has lost four straight at home vs a righty starter. Take the value with the Rangers.

Free Pick: Rangers +172

Willie Bee · 06-27-07, 10:02 AM

Make Maddux, Padres your play

Game Time: 06/27/2007 03:35 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The unassuming Greg Maddux is 4-0 in recent starts vs the Giants and has the edge over their starter, Matt Cain, this afternoon. Play the Padres today in San Francisco.

Prior to last night's game, a 3-2 win by the Padres, both teams had struggled over their past 10 games.

San Diego is 7-1 in their last eight road games facing a right-handed starter. The Padres are 4-1 in Greg Maddux's last five starts on grass. His teams are is 4-0 in Maddux' last four starts vs. the Giants.

San Francisco right-hander Matt Cain is 2-8 this season and the Giants have lost 13 of his 15 starts. San Francisco has also lost his last two starts to the Padres. The Giants have lost five of their last seven starts vs. NL West opponents. Play on the Padres.

Free Pick: Padres -105