Saturday's Front Page Picks (Jun 23)

Willie Bee · 06-23-07, 10:26 AM

Pick Phillies with Eaton at Cardinals

Game Time: 06/23/2007 01:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Adam Eaton is quietly having a nice comeback season for the Phillies, and he has done well on the road, so he gets the nod in St. Louis.

The Philadelphia Phillies send right-hander Adam Easton to the mound this afternoon vs. the St. Louis Cardnals.

Eaton is in fine form, with a 2.33 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last thres starts, and he has cashed in three of his last four road starts in the month of June.

The Phillies shut out the Cardinals 6-0 here last night, and with Philadelphia 9-3 in Game 2 of a road series this season, look for the Redbirds to take it on the chin once again today.

Free Pick: Phillies +100

Willie Bee · 06-23-07, 10:27 AM

Punchless Orioles, Diamondbacks Under 9½

Game Time: 06/23/2007 09:40 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The Orioles have been struggling, and they are without their best hitter Miguel Tejada, but their pitching has been solid, so go Under.

The Baltimore Orioles have seen a lot of changes over the past week.

First, in an effort to get something going for this once-proud franchise, the front office fired manager Sam Perlozzo. A replacement has not yet been chosen although Joe Girardi has already turned down the job. Next, the Orioles have hired long-time baseball executive Andy MacPhail to basically run their operation, and he is desperately trying to find somebody who will take the top job in the dugout. The next change was anything but uplifting, as Baltimore's best player Miguel Tejada was placed on the Disabled List, and his consecutive games streak will end at 1,152, the fifth longest in Major League history.

The O's hapless offense, already without catcher Ramon Hernandez, who is the DL again, can ill-afford to be without Tejada's bat. Furthermore, since this is a game at a National League park, the Orioles will have another disadvantage in having to bring their pitchers to the plate. The only good news for Baltimore is that their young starters have been performing very well, including tonight's 26-year-old left-hander Brian Burres, who has had several very good outings in a row.

The Arizona Diamondbacks send veteran Livan Hernandez to the mound, and he has had back-to-back poor starts. However, Hernandez is still an innings eater, and facing a weak lineup like Baltimore after the likes of Tampa Bay and the Yankees should be just what he needs to get back on track.

I am looking for both starters to have some success, so take the Under.

Free Pick: Orioles, Diamondbacks Under 9½ (-105)

Willie Bee · 06-23-07, 10:29 AM

Tigers and Braves Over 9½ (+100)

Game Time: 06/23/2007 03:55 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

The Tigers have had the best offense in base this past month, and with he Over now 24-6-2 in the last 32 games, look for more of the same.

I have made a lot of coin this month playing the Detroit Tigers to go Over, and I look to cash another such ticket today vs. the Atlanta Braves.

The Tigers are stinging the baseball in the month of June, to the tune of 7.9 runs per game, a team batting average of .333, an on-base percentage of .394 and a slugging percentage of .521!

Detroit is 12-4-2 for the Over this month, and dating back to just over a month ago, the Over is 24-6-2 in the last 32 Tiger games.

Free Pick: Tigers, Braves Over 9½ (+100)

Willie Bee · 06-23-07, 10:31 AM

Make money on Milwaukee vs KC

Game Time: 06/23/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Milwaukee is on a roll and playing at home in Beer City. Meanwhile, the Royals are, uh, well, the Royals. Back the Brewers tonight at Miller Park against Kansas City.

The Royals have had real problems on Saturday in recent years. They're 2-9 when playing on a Saturday this season and an awful 17-45 since 2005. I expect them to stumble again this evening.

I won with both Kansas City and the Under the last time that Brian Bannister took the mound. However, he didn't pitch particularly well allowing nine hits and four earned runs in six innings. He'll be facing a Milwaukee team which is averaging five runs per game at home and is now 24-14 (+8.4) against teams with a losing record.

Dave Bush comes off a quality effort for the Brewers in which he allowed just five hits and two runs in a 5-2 win over the Twins. Despite a few recent losses, the Brewers remain a solid 12-7 in his last 19 home starts. They're also a terrific 26-12 at home this season, including 8-1 their last nine here. Take a look at Milwaukee.

Free Pick: Brewers -164

Willie Bee · 06-23-07, 10:32 AM

Wolf & Dodgers to pop Kazmir & Rays

Game Time: 06/23/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Larry Ness | touthouse.com

A pair of left-handers square off tonight in Tampa when Randy Wolf goes for the Dodgers against the Devil Rays' Scott Kazmir. Lay it on Los Angeles tonight behind Wolf.

I had the Dodgers last night as a solid road favorite and tonight I'll back them in the role of solid road underdogs.

The price swing seems unjustified here. Scott Kazmir is a fine young pitcher but the Devil Rays are no match for the Dodgers. Tampa is an impressive 9-6 in Kazmir's starts this year, which is quite good considering the team's' overall 31-40 record. But he has a 4.76 ERA in his last three starts and a 4.10 ERA on the year. Los Angeles has hit lefties well all season, going 14-5 (plus-$760), while averaging 5.2 RPG.

Randy Wolf gets the call for LA and the veteran left-hander has been healthy this year (first time since '03) and while he's not in great form (6.86 ERA in his last four starts), he's 8-5 with a 4.24 ERA on the season in 15 starts with the Dodgers 9-6 in those outings.

While Los Angeles is on pace for its third straight postseason appearance, Tampa Bay is headed for its ninth last-place finish in its 10-year history. I'll take the price with the Dodgers.

Free Pick: Dodgers -123

Willie Bee · 06-23-07, 10:34 AM

Bet BoSox & Pads Under 7½

Game Time: 06/23/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Two solid pitching staffs squaring off in pitcher-friendly Petco Park makes it easy to play the Under. Bet the Red Sox and Padres to score under 7½ runs tonight in San Diego.

The San Diego Padres will send one of their top hurlers in Chris Young to the hill tonight at Petco Park to face the Boston Red Sox. The Padres thrower has allowed just six earned runs in his last 44.2 innings of work.

His pitching opponent from the BoSox, Tim Wakefield, has been equally proficient of late winning three straight starts. I look for him to tie up a struggling Padres batting order with his humbling knuckleball. With that said, look for a low-scoring tilt.

Final Notes & Key Trends: San Diego's bullpen has garnered a 2.43 ERA on the season. Boston's bullpen owns a minuscule 1.87 road ERA. The BoSox have allowed just one earned run in their last three games. The Red Sox have gone under in 10 straight games after a 1-run win as dogs their last time out. Play the Under.

Free Pick: Red Sox-Padres Under 7½

Willie Bee · 06-23-07, 10:35 AM

Play Eaton & Phillies at Cardinals

Game Time: 06/23/2007 01:10 PM -
By: Jeff Alexander | procappers.com

It's the Battle of Adam's in the Gateway City this afternoon. Play the Phillies this afternoon behind Adam Eaton when they take on Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals in St. Louis.

Philadelphia's Adam Eaton is 15-4 against the moneyline when pitching against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. .460-.490) since 1997.

Eaton is 29-15 against the moneyline in day games since 1997 and 32-17 against the moneyline in all games over the last two seasons so the old boy is still getting it done. He is 7-4 on the and has allowed just five runs, all earned, in his last three starts covering 19.1 innings (2.32 ERA).

The Phillies are 6-1 against St. Louis in all games played in St. Louis over the last three seasons. As you can see by yesterday's 6-0 victory, Busch treats them very well. Take the Phillies.

Free Pick: Phillies +103

Willie Bee · 06-23-07, 10:36 AM

Play Giants +175 to slay Yankees

Game Time: 06/23/2007 03:55 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Matt Morris has been great at home for the Giants this season, and he has been at his best as an underdog, so look for a major upset today.

The statistics for these two starting pitchers are simply too close for the New York Yankees to be such a big road favorite here.

Matt Morris of the San Francisco Giants has managed to so 7-4 despite pitching for a team that is just 30-42 overall, thanks to a nice 3.21 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Furthermore Morris has been terrific here at home, where he has a 2.32 ERA and the Giants are 4-2 in all of his starts. Finally Morris tossed a Quality Start the last time he faced the Yankees two years ago, allowing just one run and six hits in six innings.

Now Chien-Ming Wang is also having a fine season while proving that last year was not a fluke, but this is one of the few times this season where he does not have a significant advantage statistically over his mound opponent.

Free Pick: Giants +175

Willie Bee · 06-23-07, 10:38 AM

Take Tigers over cold Braves

Game Time: 06/23/2007 03:55 PM -
By: Mike Lineback | touthouse.com

The Braves are in a complete funk right now on offense after being blanked three straight games. Take the Detroit Tigers tonight at Turner Field in Atlanta.

The Atlanta Braves have not scored in their last 29 innings and have endured three consecutive shutouts for the first time in nearly 20 seasons.

Meanwhile, Detroit's Justin Verlander is on top of his game having pitched two shutouts in his last three games including a no-hitter vs. Milwaukee on June 12. He is 8-2 with a 2.90 ERA in ‘07, 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his last three starts. Atlanta's starter today, Kyle Davies, is struggling with a mediocre (at best) bullpen to back him up. In addition, Detroit bats are currently pounding the ball, especially vs. poor mound opponents similar to Davies.

Free Pick: Tigers -160

Willie Bee · 06-23-07, 10:39 AM

Make your play on Marlins vs Twins

Game Time: 06/23/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy Boyd | touthouse.com

The Marlins have been the most sucecssful NL team in interleague play since the 'experiment' began in 1997. Bet Florida tonight as home pups vs the Minnesota Twins.

Carlos Silva is 0-8 against the moneyline on the road when the line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons, and 3-15 against the moneyline on the road when the total is 8½ to 10 the last two seasons. The Twins right-hander is also just 2-5 on the road this season.

Florida is 33-13 against the moneyline vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 since 1997. The Marlins have been the most successful NL team in interleague play since it started in 1997 and they'll keep adding to their win total today.

Free Pick: Marlins +106 (C.Silva vs J.Johnson)

Willie Bee · 06-23-07, 10:41 AM

Braves & Tigers Over 9½

Game Time: 06/23/2007 03:55 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

Kenny Rogers and John Smoltz pitched an Under last night in Atlanta. But that won't be the case tonight with Justin Verlander of the Tigers and Kyle Davies of the Braves hook up.

The Over is 10-2-2 in Detroit's last 14 road games. The Tigers have played the Over in 14 of their last 16 games played on Saturday's.

The Over is 8-4 when Justin Verlander starts for Detroit. The over is also 10-3 in Detroit's last 13 interleague games vs. right-handed starters. Kyle Davies starts for the Braves tonight and the Over is 14-3 in his last 17 home starts. The Over is 28-9 in Davies' last 37 starts overall. Expect both team's to put up runs this afternoon; play the Over.

Free Pick: Tigers-Braves Over 9½

onlooker · 06-23-07, 11:27 AM

I am going to have to disagree with Ben Burns pick of the Brewers. I like the Royals today +150.