DOG Days of Summer - 6/18

[Senator7]

Glad to see EBone kept things rollin' in my absence...

Considering:

KC Royals +152

As always, this thread and its discussion is DOGS ONLY!

[bigboydan]

I'm liking the Nats tomorrow

[onlooker]

I don't see any dogs of interest tomorrow.

Good luck guys.

[Senator7]

I'm liking the Nats tomorrow

The Nats looked good to me too, BBD, until I took a closer look and saw that Chico is pitching much worse than his numbers show and Detroit has the league's second best offense against lefties.

The only other plays I even looked at were Cincinnati and Houston, but after a closer look, I decided not to consider them...

[tevari]

on San Fran and Cincy tomorrow, GL.

[rjt721]

I like the Nats as well BBD. Maroth laying -150 on the road? I'll take my chances at that price any day.

KC was intriguing for a minute, but STL's offense has really picked it up the last 2 games, and, even though he's inconsistent, I still think Wainwright will be a front of the rotation starter. He's coming off a dominating performance against the Royals, and I think tomorrow will be more of the same. That being said, I'm certainly not playing the Cards at that price. I'm passing on this game.

Anyone have the balls to back Edwin Jackson and the Rays? I know I don't.

[moses millsap]

I don't see any dogs of interest tomorrow.

Good luck guys.

Me either. A 10 team parlay of the faves looks sweet. Maybe 10 x 8 round robin.

[The HG]

KC: Yeah, I like them at this line. STL is surging, but KC is a bit themselves as well. Wainwright is off of 110 pitches and KC will see him for the second time in a row. What happened to the arm problems he was having earlier? They're still lurking there I bet. STL is doing better vs lefties and Perez, well, whatever, but yeah I think there's a bit of value with KC.

Nats: Yes I like them as well. It's not about Chico, it's about how Detroit wins. They slug their way to wins, and at RFK, that will probably be very much neutralized. This one should be another competitive game with Wash as a big underdog, they should be in it at the end I think.

Cincy: I do like Cincy at this line, for a few reasons. One is Lohse's volatility; if he doesn't get hit hard, he often has very good outings. And McAfee should neutralize Cincy's big bullpen weakness, unless they've started using juiced-up balls in Oakland now. 54 runs in 3 games at McAfee??? It took 11 games before this weekend to get that many runs at McAfee. Blanton has only given up 10 runs in his 6 home starts this year, but Oakland has only won 2 of those games.

Hou: I also like Houston here, at this line, although the plus run Line might be a better way to go. If Sampson can keep Houston in the game, which he is likely to, the game will likely go down to the wire. 2 of Lackey's 4 home wins were by 1 run.

SF: I don't like this one, I'm leaning toward Milwaukee. Gallardo is a big prospect, and SF is just a losing team overall. They're old, their pen is iffy, etc etc.

TB: No way would I take this, I like Arizona, not only because of Jackson. Arizona is picking it up offensively, they're buubling up, on the rise. I'll be on Arizona, but on the RL.

[Terpman92]

I like the Nats tomorrow with Chico at home! Lights out.

[AC1318]

glad to see your back S7, how was fishing?

[EBone]

Got 4 today. Coming off a losing week last week. Fortunately, that hasn't happened since April so I'll see if I can pick it back up this week:

San Francisco +120.....Ganch HG may be correct in his above post. Maybe the Giants just aren't the team I think they are. I liked them in all the Boston series games and they just blew. I'll take them here on a sure pitch ceiling for Gallardo and hoping that the Giants can score a few runs. They are really due. 1 unit.

Florida +118.....Fading the ChiSox here. I just think they are that bad. Contreras will be dosing up on the Geritol and Dentucream for this start as I'm sure he's 70 yrs old. Josh Johnson was relatively consistent last year so I'll take a gander with the Fish but this is more of a ChiSox fade. 1 unit.

Kansas **** +148.....I know that we saw Perez absolutely blow up last week vs STL and Wainwright threw a gem but I don't think Wainwright is that strong (although has the potential to be a #1 at some point as posted by rjt above) and Perez can't be that bad. Can he? I'll give Odalis another shot here at the plus number. 1 unit.

Houston +180.....I like Sampson and I love the numbers he continues to get. LAA has got to be close to being the best home team in the majors but Sampson has some moxie. Lackey lost a home start to the Twins a couple of weeks ago so we'll see if a trend emerges. Plus the Astros hit the Mariners hard this weekend so lets see if that continues. 1 unit.


Good luck, S7.



E

[LT Profits]

I bet 3 dogs, two of which have already been discussed (Nats, Royals). My other is:

MINNESOTA - This is a natural letdown spot for the Mets after facing the Yankees, and getting a decent American League dog at this price in interleague is sweet.

The Twins are 21-6 in their last 27 interleague games and 3-0 all time vs. Mets. Silva has three Quality Starts in his last four starts, and he shut out another NL team last start (Braves). Also don't forget that Maine did very little when he was in the American League, and he allowed four earned in only 3.2 innings in his only career start vs. the Twins.

Finally, the Mets bullpen has just fallen apart, while the Twins rank sixth in the majors in pen ERA at 3.51.

[bigboydan]

There is no way on earth I could bet Silva tonight LT. That guy is the one guy who could actually awaken those Mets backs.

[Senator7]

Decided to go with:

KC Royals +154

Though the prices were tempting, I decided to stay away from Cincinnati and Houston.

Best of luck today, fellas!

[The HG]

San Francisco +120.....Ganch HG may be correct in his above post. Maybe the Giants just aren't the team I think they are. I liked them in all the Boston series games and they just blew. I'll take them here on a sure pitch ceiling for Gallardo and hoping that the Giants can score a few runs. They are really due.

EBone, not trying to pull you off a play here, but I don't see SF as due. They're going to need a good start from Lowry to win this one, which of course they could get, but I just think the value here is with Milwaukee. SF isn't even a particularly big underdog here. Gallardo seems to be the kind of guy who will be ready to go from day 1 in the bigs.

Also, I think I'm going to take the plus run line with Houston. I know the jump down from +200 or whatever to -110 or whatever is huge, but the bet is that Sampson will be able to keep it close, which I think is good. But an actual win from Houston I think will be tough. The LA pen will be able to hold a 1-run lead, and the Houston pen could easily lose a lead late which would likely result in a 1-run loss.

Or, what might also be a good one on the Houston game, is the Houston 5-inning plus 1/2 run line at around +120.

[EBone]

EBone, not trying to pull you off a play here, but I don't see SF as due. They're going to need a good start from Lowry to win this one, which of course they could get, but I just think the value here is with Milwaukee. SF isn't even a particularly big underdog here. Gallardo seems to be the kind of guy who will be ready to go from day 1 in the bigs.

You very well could be right, Ganch HG. Right now, I have SF as a .5052 (near .500) team. They are currently 30-38 which means I think they should have 4 more wins than they do. So, I guess that is what I mean when I say they are "due".

Gallardo does look like he will be good. I think his 1st game out, though, he will be micromanaged to death. I think 5 maybe 6 innings out of him tonight at best. If the Giants can get a good outing out of Lowry (which I do think is likely), I can see a 5-2 victory for the Giants with a few runs coming off the Brewers setup help.

Lord knows I've been wrong before. Won't be the first time nor the last.



E

[Razz]

Braves, Braves, and Braves.

[Bulldog]

Only dog I like today is Cleveland...
Even with Hamels on the mound I think there´s value here as the Indians are home dogs...

[Razz]

I like the Braves a lot, sort of like the Indians (though I'd always rather take Cleveland against a tough RHP than a tough LHP), but here's a question. Who are the three pitchers in MLB who have had at least seven quality starts in a row?

One is very easy, Dan Haren, who has been the best pitcher in baseball this year. The other two are not so easy. Few would guess Jeremy Guthrie of the Orioles, who has been spectacular since entering the O's starting rotation. But even fewer would come up with the name Chris Sampson.

Sampson hasn't been dominant, but he has given his team a very good chance to win every time out. Chances are that he will have another good outing against LAA tonight, and that's all you can really ask of a team getting 2-1. The Astros likely won't score a lot, but at the price, I have a hard time passing them up.

[EaglesPhan36]

Cincy's probably my only dog today. As Ganch said, the A's have trouble scoring runs for Blanton at home so the Reds could steal one if Lohse isn't his usual Lohse self if ya know what I mean.

Can't take Houston - Sampson does usually give them a chance to win, but his last 5 road starts I think they are 1-4. They just don't play well on the road.

[forty40]

Anyone have the balls to back Edwin Jackson and the Rays? I know I don't.

lol...he's gotta win sooner or later! But i dont have the balls bet its gonna be tonite

[AC1318]

way to pick up were you left off