Something New

betplom · 06-15-07, 05:09 PM

I like to read what the guys here have to say myself. There is alot of useful info here, however I think you may have missed some picks as I know of a couple of guys are taking Washington (big dog) over Toronto.

Carlos019 · 06-15-07, 05:17 PM

New Play/Update

I am going to track it at my actual unit size of 500, will update the actual card once i make the bets.
Today's notables:
Detroit Tigers: 12 cappers
vs.
Philadelphia: 3 cappers
---------------------------
Florida: 11 cappers
vs.
Kansas City: 2 cappers
----------------------------
Washington: 1 cappers
vs.
Toronto: 7 cappers
--------------------------
St. Louis: 4 cappers
vs.
Oakland: 12 cappers
----------------------
Dodgers Vs Angels
Over 8: 6 cappers
Under 8: 1 cappers
--------------
White Sox: 3 capper
vs.
Pittsburg: 6 cappers
-------------------
Arizona: 9 cappers
vs.
Baltimore: 2 cappers

Plays
Arizona +141 500.00 705.00
Dodgers over
Florida
Detroit -114 570.00 500.00
Toronto -1 -209 1045.35 500
Oakland -1

Carlos019 · 06-15-07, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by betplom

I like to read what the guys here have to say myself. There is alot of useful info here, however I think you may have missed some picks as I know of a couple of guys are taking Washington (big dog) over Toronto.

Thanks for the feedback, I saw the post by ganchrow but nobody said they were going to play it, everone said they were considering it.

bigboydan · 06-15-07, 06:01 PM

GL with your new system sir

Carlos019 · 06-15-07, 06:18 PM

Final Card

Sorry for the late card but many late plays and was making my plays last minute so I am putting it in kind of late

Detroit Tigers 570 to win 500
Blue Jays -1 $1045.35 to win 500
Arizona 500 to win 705
Dodgers over 8 530 to win 500
Marlins 505 to win 500

Might play oakland -1 if more people play them

BuddyBear · 06-15-07, 06:28 PM

Good luck Carlos....there are a lot of problems with this methodology.

1) Not everyone posts who goes on gaming forums so you have a very unrepresentative sample

2) Picks are not in real time (i.e. I did not committ to Philadelphia till I got the best possible line at the last second and that's what most people should do when making picks...they should have sbrlines up along with their sportsbook)

3) People don't routinely post....some days they post, some days they don't.

4) The degree of confidence individuals have with their picks varies. Thus not all picks are equal.

Most importantly,

5) Most gaming forum posters lose and are long-term losers.....I'd estimate that about 20% win.

Carlos019 · 06-15-07, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Good luck Carlos....there are a lot of problems with this methodology.

1) Not everyone posts who goes on gaming forums so you have a very unrepresentative sample

2) Picks are not in real time (i.e. I did not committ to Philadelphia till I got the best possible line at the last second and that's what most people should do when making picks...they should have sbrlines up along with their sportsbook)

3) People don't routinely post....some days they post, some days they don't.

4) The degree of confidence individuals have with their picks varies. Thus not all picks are equal.

Most importantly,

5) Most gaming forum posters lose and are long-term losers.....I'd estimate that about 20% win.

I have realized all your points and do take them into consideration. 1 main thing I am trying to see is if this system can work as a filter and take out the bad picks and keep the best picks from all the the cappers a whole also I feel that the system can be more consistent and less streaky since it is using all kinds of methods and systems from all kinds of cappers and if the pick qualifies it is telling you that it is matching cappers from different point of views. I am betting on these picks based on the amount of time, effort, knowledge and experience that all these cappers' picks have to back them up, I myself can't beat that so I am better of giving it a shot.

Point 1- I have realized this and try to mostly look at everyday posters that have been consistently posting picks since at least the beginning of the season.

point 4 and 5- If this weekend turns out to be good, I will try to incorporate the picks in a way that the better cappers are worth more and level of confidence ( even though many times these picks dont outperform the overall average of a capper ) can be worth a few more points.

Carlos019 · 06-15-07, 08:17 PM

Adding

Oakland is now a play.

Oakland -1 $655.41 to win $500

BuddyBear · 06-15-07, 08:52 PM

People try this system all over the gaming forums....some days it works, some days it doesn't but in the end it NEVER works. Everyone believes that gaming forum posters know more than the average gambler....most people just post their plays because they are lonely and have nothing to do. It's not like posting on forums is part of an exclusive membership. Anyone can post...from the sharpest to the stupidest.

If you want to tail picks...just find one or two guys who are consistent and you trust who you can follow. Save yourself the hassle of tabulating everyone's picks and what not.

Another reason why you want to reconsider this reason:

6) Lot of guys tail each other....therefore you are double counting essentially a single pick.

LT Profits · 06-16-07, 02:45 AM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

If you want to tail picks...just find one or two guys who are consistent and you trust who you can follow.

OR find one or two guys who are consistently BAD and just fade them!