Friday's Front Page Picks (Jun 15)

Willie Bee · 06-15-07, 09:19 AM

Take Hot Dodgers -125 vs. Angels & Santana

Game Time: 06/15/2007 10:40 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

Derek Lowe has been pitching in some tough luck for the Dodgers, but look for their bats to awaken tonight vs. Ervin Santana, who has struggled on the road.

It is the battle of Los Angeles tonight as the Dodgers host the Angels in Game 1 of the interleague Freeway Series.

Ervin Santana (5-6, 5.26 ERA) goes for the Angels, and while he has been great at home, just 40 miles away, he’s struggled big time on the road posting an ERA of 9.30 with opposing batters hitting .333 against him. Derek Lowe, (6-6, 3.21 ERA), toes the rubber for the Dodgers, and he could easily have eight or nine wins this year with any type of run support.

The Dodgers are in a nice “groove” after sweeping the Mets, so I look for them to keep it going this weekend against the Angels.

Free Pick: Dodgers -125

Willie Bee · 06-15-07, 09:21 AM

Make Marlins +100 the play to crown Royals

Game Time: 06/15/2007 08:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Marlins have been underachievers this year, but they have played better on the road than at home, so look for the hot Sergio Mitre to handle the Royals.

The Florida Marlins have underachieved this season while the Kansas City Royals have been a pesky club, but we like Sergio Mitre to quiet the Royals bats this evening.

One of the oddities of this game is that the Marlins are over .500 on the road at 18-16, while Kansas City is 10 games under .500 at home, at 13-23. Mitre has been brilliant in his last three starts, not allowing an earned run in 16.2 innings. Like his team, Mitre has actually performed better on the road also, going 2-0 with 1 1.50 ERA and a sensational 0.88 WHIP in 24 innings.

Kansas City starter Gil Meche has come back down to earth after looking like Cy Young early in the year, and he was touched up for four earned runs on eight hits in seven innings by the Phillies in his last start. Yes he has pitched considerably better than his 3-6 record, but the problem is that he once again does not figure to get much run support tonight the way that Mitre is pitching.

Free Pick: Marlins +100

Willie Bee · 06-15-07, 09:23 AM

Marlins & Mitre, Royals & Meche Under 8½

Game Time: 06/15/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Gil Meche has turned things back around lately after a bit of a slump, while Sergio Mitre has been fantastic on the road, so runs should be at a premium tonight.

Gil Meche of the Kansas City Royals has pitched well recently while recording a 3.10 ERA and 1.08 WHIP his last three starts.

However, the Royals have given him a combined two runs of support in those three games. Not surprisingly, all three games finished well below the total. The Under is now 6-2 in Meche's last eight starts and 4-1 his last five home starts.

Meanwhile, Sergio Mitre of the Florida Marlins has seen the Under go a perfect 4-0 in his last four starts. For the season, Mitre has an outstanding 1.50 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in five road outings.

Free Pick: Marlins, Royals Under 8½

Willie Bee · 06-15-07, 09:25 AM

Lay it on Lilly, Cubs vs Padres

Game Time: 06/15/2007 02:20 PM -
By: Brad Diamond | playbook.com

The Cubs are rested, especially starting hurler Ted Lilly, while the Padres are facing a short recovery from their series in Tampa. Back Chicago at home this afternoon against San Diego.

I would love to find reasons to play on the fundamentally sound Padres against the not so structured Cubbies. However, we seem to be catching real value with the home standing and rested Cubs.

San Diego has won back-to-back games (versus Tampa Bay), but had to travel overnight to Chicago for a day game Friday. Technically, the Padres are 2-7 with Boomer Wells (3-3, 4.76) as an underdog, 1-4 with Wells in Game 1 of series and 6-16 on Friday.

The redeveloping Cubs are 21-8 as a home favorite in this price range and a perfect 5-0 against a hurler with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Opposing hurler Ted Lilly of Chicago is 2-0 with a 2.74 ERA lifetime against the Padres. In addition, Lilly is well-rested after being ejected following just 10 pitches last Sunday.

No doubt San Diego has dominated this series recently, but the Cubs have a great chance at home to gain a measure of revenge.

Free Pick: Cubs -129

Willie Bee · 06-15-07, 09:29 AM

Giants +125 to keep Red Sox skidding

Game Time: 06/15/2007 07:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Barry Zito gives the Giants tremendous value vs. Julian Tavarez here, especially since the Boston offense has produced a measly six runs in four games.

The Boston Red Sox had been the best performing favorites in baseball, but they burned a lot of money the last two nights vs. the Colorado Rockies, and the pitching matchup favors the underdog San Francisco Giants here.

Yes Barry Zito was knocked around a bit by his old teammates, the Oakland A’s, in his last start. However, he had finally started looking like the Zito of old in his previous three starts, allowing a grand total of one earned run in 20 innings. His emotions probably just got the best of him vs. his old mates, so we look for a sparkling bounce-back effort tonight. Zito has allowed three runs or less in three of his last four starts vs. the Red Sox.

Boston counters with their weakest link Julian Tavarez, who has a bloated 5.94 ERA and 1.56 WHIP here in Fenway Park this year. His normal performance simply will not do tonight, especially since the Red Sox are struggling offensively right now, scoring a grand total of six runs in the last four games and hitting a scant .232 as a team over the last 10 contests.

Free Pick: Giants +125

Willie Bee · 06-15-07, 09:30 AM

Back the Rockies over the Devil Rays

Game Time: 06/15/2007 09:05 PM -
By: Dennis Macklin | procappers.com

The Devil Rays and Rockies are both on solid runs. But Colorado's Rodrigo Lopez will have the pitching advantage in this one over James Shields of Tampa Bay.

Strangely enough, the Devil Rays and Rockies are both playing well with Tampa winning seven times in their last 11 outings and Colorado on an 8-3 run of late. Plus tonight's starters are unbeaten in a combined 19 starts.

Tampa Bay's Jamie Shields has been super with his 6-0 and 3.04 credentials. He also has sparkling 18/83 BB/K ratio. But until a recent spurt, Tampa Bay has been notoriously awful on the road and owns an 11-20 badge against teams with losing records.

Rodrigo Lopez has new life in the Rockies and is 2-0 with 2.88 ERA in his six starts with Colorado 5-1 in those games. He's 9-5 lifetime against Tampa Bay and should be very familiar with their lineup.

Colorado has been getting terrific pitching, timely hitting, and should be confident after winning their last four series and six of their last seven. Take the Rockies.

Free Pick: Rockies -106

Willie Bee · 06-15-07, 09:32 AM

Dog the D-Backs at Orioles

Game Time: 06/15/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

This matchup features a pair of teams currently on the skids with the pitching matchup favoring Arizona. Bet the underdog Diamondbacks tonight in Baltimore versus the Orioles.

Both teams come into this one not playing very well. Arizona is 4-6 in their last 10 while the Orioles are 2-8.

Arizona is coming off being swept by a red-hot Yankees team while Baltimore was swept at home by the Nationals. The D-Backs have won four of Micah Owings' last five starts. Baltimore has lost five of Eric Beddard's last six starts. Look for the Orioles to continue to struggle. Play on the Diamondbacks.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks +142