DOG Days of Summer - 6/15

EaglesPhan36 · 06-15-07, 12:08 AM

San Diego & Arizona are the two that I saw at first glance that I liked. The Orioles seem to find new ways to lose for Bedard lately and I think the D-Backs are getting a good price based on the buzzsaw treatment they got from the Yanks for three games. Arizona is definitely not as bad as they looked last series.

Can't take anyone against the Yankees right now personally.

Senator7 · 06-15-07, 12:16 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

San Diego & Arizona are the two that I saw at first glance that I liked. The Orioles seem to find new ways to lose for Bedard lately and I think the D-Backs are getting a good price based on the buzzsaw treatment they got from the Yanks for three games. Arizona is definitely not as bad as they looked last series.

Can't take anyone against the Yankees right now personally.

Arizona is horrible against lefties and will probably struggle against Bedard, one of the best lefties in the AL.

Lilly's true ERA is almost a run lower than his actual ERA. The Cubs are bad against lefties, but San Diego is not much better. Cubs offense has been much better than San Diego's over the last 20 games as well.

Are the Yankees playing better ball? Absolutely. Should this team be -170 favorites against one of the best teams in the NL? Even with Clemens throwing, I don't think so. Perez is no slouch of a pitcher and the Yanks aren't spectacular against lefties...

bigboydan · 06-15-07, 12:18 AM

I agree with Mr.Eagles in regards to San Diego Senator. I also am liking the Rockies too if TB goes up a little bit more.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-15-07, 12:20 AM

Only # that matters to me with Lilly is that the Cubs have dropped his last four starts. Mets have the value in that game I agree - but I think with the way both clubs are playing, I think the Yankees win - but I wouldn't lay the price for Clemens.

Senator7 · 06-15-07, 12:24 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Only # that matters to me with Lilly is that the Cubs have dropped his last four starts. Mets have the value in that game I agree - but I think with the way both clubs are playing, I think the Yankees win - but I wouldn't lay the price for Clemens.

So you're judging Lilly based on the fact that his team has lost his last 4 starts. Under that logic, he could have thrown four straight one hit games where he gave up only a home run and the Cubs lost 1-0 and you would be sour on him? So because they've lost the last 4, that means that the odds are good he'll lose 5? I don't understand that logic.

For the last time, wins and losses is the worst way to judge pitchers because it entails so much that is out of the pitcher's control.

I can show you some numbers that do matter and would make your head spin...

rjt721 · 06-15-07, 12:25 AM

I agree with Eagles on the D'Backs. Owings is one of the more underrated pitcher's in the NL.

Don't know what to make of the Mets/Yanks game. Obviously, they are headed in different directions right now. Oliver Perez has been pretty solid most of the year, although he really struggled in his last start against the Tigers. I still think Perez is a little shaky and I don't feel he's completely turned around his career to the point where he's the same pitcher of a few years ago. With the way the Yankees offense is performing, I think pitching in the Bronx is an extremely difficult spot for him. I'll probably pass on this one, but if anything, I would probably look at the Yanks RL.

Disagree with the Giants....I think Zito gets shelled tomorrow night. I like the BoSox.

I think there's a little value with the Pirates and Braves.

EaglesPhan36 · 06-15-07, 12:37 AM

Originally posted by Senator7

So you're judging Lilly based on the fact that his team has lost his last 4 starts. Under that logic, he could have thrown four straight one hit games where he gave up only a home run and the Cubs lost 1-0 and you would be sour on him? So because they've lost the last 4, that means that the odds are good he'll lose 5? I don't understand that logic.

For the last time, wins and losses is the worst way to judge pitchers because it entails so much that is out of the pitcher's control.

I can show you some numbers that do matter and would make your head spin...

Here's his last four starts. Admittedly, you can't really judge the ATL one. But tell me what's to like about his recent efforts?

Date Opp S/R Res Scr M/L O/U IP H R ER SO BB HR PIT P/IP G/F
6/10/2007 @ ATL S ND 4-5 L -102 P 9 0.2 0 0 0 2 0 0 10 15.0 0.0
6/5/2007 @ MIL S L 5-7 L -114 O 8.5 5.0 8 6 6 2 1 3 89 17.8 0.86
5/30/2007 FLA S L 0-9 L -134 U 10 7.0 7 6 5 9 1 3 109 15.6 0.83
5/25/2007 @ LA S ND 8-9 L 117 O 7.5 4.1 6 5 5 2 4 1 75 17.3 1.50

At the end of the day, wins and losses are what matters. Lilly can pitch an oustanding ballgame, but if Chicago loses - then I'll win.

EBone · 06-15-07, 09:24 AM

Only one game for me today.

San Francisco +127.....I, personally, think Zito has been somewhat disappointing with the Giants. I think he's due for a great performance. Red Sox are struggling with the bats; I can't believe the way they played in the Rockies series. Unreal. The Giants are a team I've trended as a "buy" for June so this seems like a logical spot. 1 unit on the Giants.

Good luck, S7.

E

BuddyBear · 06-15-07, 09:46 AM

I like CHC today too.....

Razorbacks1 · 06-15-07, 10:20 AM

2-0 for me on thursday..3 for today

SD +114..Not getting into the above discussion, but I do like SD in this spot.

AZ +139..Balt. has lost 5 AZ 3 in a row. Something gotta give

LAA +114..I'll take the AL here

Also liking Colorado, but they are a slight fav

Best of luck to all!!

Crayzee · 06-15-07, 11:03 AM

atlanta sucks

BuddyBear · 06-15-07, 01:17 PM

What did you take Senator?

onlooker · 06-15-07, 01:21 PM

I agree with you on the Mets +165, but I also like two others for today.

The Brewers +101 and the Marlins +106.

Good luck everyone.

The HG · 06-15-07, 01:25 PM

I'm on SD today. Not to get into it too much, but I agree that Lilly has been good, can be good, and will be good. But add it all up, and I see value with SD here. I'm no dog fetishist either, but seeing what I see, I like SD at plus odds. Late in the game, if it's close, I'll like SD's chances.

Senator7 · 06-15-07, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

What did you take Senator?

Went with:

Atlanta

Tampa Bay

NY Mets

Houston

By the way, how did Lilly pitch today?

Good luck, fellas!

EaglesPhan36 · 06-15-07, 05:40 PM

He done pitched him a good 'un. LoL. Nice call.

Senator7 · 06-15-07, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by Senator7

Arizona is horrible against lefties and will probably struggle against Bedard, one of the best lefties in the AL.

Lilly's true ERA is almost a run lower than his actual ERA. The Cubs are bad against lefties, but San Diego is not much better. Cubs offense has been much better than San Diego's over the last 20 games as well.

Are the Yankees playing better ball? Absolutely. Should this team be -170 favorites against one of the best teams in the NL? Even with Clemens throwing, I don't think so. Perez is no slouch of a pitcher and the Yanks aren't spectacular against lefties...

I think I may be psychic...

I love Sabermetrics!

Senator7 · 06-15-07, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by Senator7

Went with:

Atlanta

Tampa Bay

NY Mets

Houston

By the way, how did Lilly pitch today?

Good luck, fellas!

Banked Atlanta...

Mets and Astros looking good late as well.

Shields has settled down and TB could climb back into it.

I should have taken Pittsburgh too.

Either way, its looking like a solid day.