Tuesday's Front Page Plays (Jun 12)

Willie Bee · 06-12-07, 09:02 AM

Go Under 8 with Blue Jays, Giants

Game Time: 06/12/2007 10:15 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

There should be a pitcher’s duel in San Francisco tonight, as Burnett has posted back-to-back double-digit strikeout performances, while Lowry has a 2.70 ERA at home.

These teams stayed below the total again last night, bringing the record for the Under to 22-8 in the last 30 Toronto Blue Jays games, as well as 35-25-3, 58.3 percent in all San Francisco Giants games this season.

Things do not figure to be easier for these offenses tonight, given this pitching matchup. A.J. Burnett of the Blue Jays has some of the nastiest stuff in the American League, and he is actually in very good form right now despite being winless in his last three starts. That is because he has a 3.63 ERA and an outstanding 1.03 WHIP in those last three Toronto losses, with an amazing 33 strikeouts in 22.1innings. There is no doubt that Burnett deserves a better fate than his 5-5 record, as he now has six Quality Starts in his last seven outings. Not so coincidentally, the Under is 6-1 in those starts, including 3-0 in the last three.

Do not underestimate Noah Lowry of the Giants either, who is also an unfortunate 5-5 overall despite a nice 3.49 ERA. Lowry has done his best pitching here at home, where he is 4-1 with a stellar 2.70 ERA, and the southpaw should be doubly tough on a Blue Jays lineup that is facing him for the very first time.

Free Pick: Blue Jays, Giants Under 8 (-110)

Willie Bee · 06-12-07, 09:03 AM

Play Carmona & Cleveland at Florida

Game Time: 06/12/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

Fausto Carmona is having an All-Star caliber season for the Indians who are 8-3 with the Dominican righty on the mound. Chalk it up to Cleveland tonight in Florida against the Marlins.

Cleveland's Fausto Carmona returned to his brilliant form of weeks past in hist last start tossing seven innings of one-run ball against the Royals. So in control was the right-hander that just one Kansas City player advanced to second through his first six innings.

And perhaps the best sign is that 11 of his 16 outs put into play came on ground balls, a sure sign that his devastating mid-90s sinker is working well. The right-hander is putting up numbers that must make him a candidate to make next month's All-Star game. Despite spending some time at Triple-A Buffalo, Carmona has seven wins and his 3.11 ERA is ninth-best in the league. This will be Carmona's first career start against the Marlins.

Lefty Scott Olsen, 4-5 with a 5.27 ERA will oppose Carmona and will need to improve on his control to have any chance of keeping the potent Cleveland offense in check. Walks have been Olsen's bugaboo and the primary factor in preventing him from pitching past the sixth inning in eight of 11 starts. Olsen has walked at least one in every start, and the five free passes he issued against Atlanta were a season high.

I'm going with Carmona who should find himself in San Francisco for the All-Star Game in July.

Free Pick: Indians -140

Willie Bee · 06-12-07, 09:04 AM

Braves & Twins Under 9½

Game Time: 06/12/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Steve Merril | procappers.com

Expect to see nice bounce-back efforts from tonight's starting pitchers, Kyle Davies for the Braves and Kevin Slowey for the Twins. Play the Under when Atlanta visits Minnesota.

This should be a low-scoring game as my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing by both starters tonight as each one is due for a bounce-back performance after poor showings in their most recent starts.

Atlanta’s Kyle Davies struggled on June 6 when he allowed five runs in just five innings in a 7-4 loss versus Florida. Davies has alternated good and bad performances all season. In fact, the past two times this year that Davies allowed four runs or more in a game, he followed up with two quality starts in which he pitched seven innings and allowed one run on both occasions (May 11 and June 1).

Minnesota’s Kevin Slowey is also due for a solid bounce-back performance after a poor outing last Thursday when he allowed 10 hits and five runs in just five innings of work. Despite his struggles, Slowey was still impressive in his Major League debut on June 1 when he allowed just one run in six innings of work in a 3-2 victory at Oakland. Slowey was also incredible at AAA Rochester earlier this season with a 1.54 ERA and 0.808 WHIP with a powerful 57-5 strikeout/walk ratio in nine starts. Slowey was equally strong last year with a 1.88 ERA and 0.834 WHIP in 23 minor league starts with a 151-22 strikeout/walk ratio.

Free Pick: Braves-Twins Under 9½

Willie Bee · 06-12-07, 09:05 AM

Cubs the play with Hill on the hill

Game Time: 06/12/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Tom Stryker | procappers.com

Seattle is having a great run right now, but all of the traveling they've done has to take its toll eventually. Back the Chicago Cubs at home tonight against the Mariners.

This is going to be a tough spot for Seattle. After pulling off the three-game sweep at San Diego, the Mariners held on for another victory at Cleveland last night. Now, the M's must get back on the bus and travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Cubs. Seattle has to be one tired baseball team!

The Cubbies will send left-handed youngster Rich Hill to the mound. In his last three starts against Atlanta (twice) and the LA Dodgers, Hill has been king of the mountain, chalking up 21 innings of work and only two earned runs and 10 hits allowed. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 20-4 is equally impressive.

At Wrigley Field this season, Hill has also thrown the ball extremely well. In four starts, No. 53 owns a 2-1 record and has surrendered only six earned runs and 19 hits in 26.2 frames. That breaks down to an impressive 2.03 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05.

Seattle will counter with southpaw Jarrod Washburn. In his last two starts Washburn has been at his worst against Baltimore and Texas. The Orioles and Rangers ripped Jarrod for nine earned runs and 18 hits in just 8.1 innings.

Seattle is playing excellent ball but this team can't keep its current pace for very long especially with all of the travel that's involved right now. Take Chicago with listed pitcher Hill.

Free Pick: Cubs -134

Willie Bee · 06-12-07, 09:07 AM

Back Oswalt & Astros vs. A's

Game Time: 06/12/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | sportspic.com

Oakland lefty Joe Kennedy hasn't had much luck this season despite pitching well, and his luck isn't going to change tonight when he and the A's face Roy Oswalt and the Astros in Houston.

Athletics starter Joe Kennedy has looked good this season, but has been a hard-luck pitcher when matched up against top pitchers like the Astros' Roy Oswalt tonight. Kennedy has also had bad luck with low-scoring teams as evident by his teams going just 2-16 in his last 18 games with a total set between 7 and 8½.

Kennedy has also seen his team go 0-12 against the moneyline in night games on the road over the last few seasons. Roy Oswalt and the Astors, on the other hand, are 15-1 in his last 16 starts against the moneyline in home games against teams outscoring their opp by 0.5 or more RPG on the season, like the A's. Play on the Astros to notch a rare win.

Free Pick: Astros -158

Willie Bee · 06-12-07, 09:08 AM

White Sox +145 to Upset Phillies & Hamels

Game Time: 06/12/2007 07:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Phillies may have their ace Cole Hamels on the mound, but Jose Contreras is also in excellent form for the White Sox, and gives Chicago great value here.

Yes, the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago White Sox are heading in opposite directions, but this is simply too juicy a price on the White Sox to pass up.

The Phillies have their ace Cole Hamels on the hill, but the young left-hander actually was quite hittable in his last start, allowing 10 hits to the New York Mets. On the flip side, Jose Contreras gives tremendous value to the Sox at this price, as he limited the powerful Yankees lineup to three runs on only four hits in 7.1 innings in his last start, giving him his seventh Quality Start in his last eight outings.

Now Chicago did get shut out 3-0 here last night, but trend-lovers will like the fact that the White Sox usually respond well in these situations, going 45-26, 63.4 percent after getting shut out in the last 71 occasions!

Free Pick: White Sox +145

Willie Bee · 06-12-07, 09:09 AM

Go with Maddux, Pads at Rays

Game Time: 06/12/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Padres are a perfect 3-0 the last three times Greg Maddux has been on the hill. Side with San Diego tonight when they travel east to Tampa Bay to play the Devil Rays.

The Padres are 13-6 in their last 19 games. San Diego is 6-1 in their last seven interleage games when playing as the underdog.

Greg Maddux is 2-0 over his last three starts with a 2.89 ERA. The Padres have won his last three starts. In two career starts vs. the Devil Rays, Maddux' teams are 2-0. Tampa Bay has lost six of their last eight interleague games. In their last eight interleague games vs. right-handed starters, the Devil Rays are 1-7. Play on the Padres.

Free Pick: Padres +105