Saturday's Front Page Picks (Jun 9)

[Willie Bee]

Devil Rays with Shields +105 to D-Rail Marlins

Game Time: 06/09/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

James Shields is one of the best young pitchers in all of baseball, and with Dontrelle Willis struggling with his control this year, take the Devils Rays on the road.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays starter James Shields is the real deal, while Dontrelle Willis of the Florida Marlins has a high (for him) 4.70 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.

Shields is in terrific form, as he is 5-0 on the season and 58 strikeouts against just 13 walks in his last nine starts. He has already thrown one gem at the Marlins, giving up one run and five hits in seven innings on May 20.

With Florida's Dontrelle Willis allowing 11 walks with only six strikeouts in his last three starts, and owning a 6.37 ERA in his last five home starts, let's back Tampa Bay here tonight.

Free Pick: Devil Rays +105

[Willie Bee]

White Sox -125 to Dominate Punchless Astros

Game Time: 06/09/2007 03:55 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The White Sox have been one of the better interleague teams in the league going 24-8 in such matchups, so look for them to rebound from a loss to Houston Friday.

I doubt that anybody welcomes the arrival of 17 days of interleague play more than Ozzie Guillen and the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox are 2-11 in their last 13 games, but 24-8 in their last 32 interleague matchups.

Jason Jennings is still winless on the year for the Houston Astros despite a 3.13 ERA, which is one of the best in the National League among starting pitchers. The only possible reason for that is that the Astros simply cannot score any runs.

Houston is having one of their worst seasons in quite some time, and the frustration seems to be getting to their players like Lance Berkman, who perhaps in an effort to shake himself up and out of a painful start to the season was ejected from games twice in the past week, and will serve a two-game suspension at some point soon. Whether or not Berkman's antics get this team going remains to be seen, but with Carlos Lee and young Hunter Pence being about the only productive offensive players, Houston certainly needs a wake-up call of some sort.

Despite Friday night's win by the 'Stros, the White Sox have dominated this interleague series, taking seven of the last nine meetings, so take Chicago.

Free Pick: White Sox -125

[Willie Bee]

Play Red Sox -115 as Small Chalk in Arizona

Game Time: 06/09/2007 09:40 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Diamondbacks may have the better starting pitcher, but the Red Sox have the better offense and bullpen, so go with the best road team in the American League.

While we concede that the Arizona Diamondbacks have the better starting pitcher tonight, this is still a cheap price for a Boston Red Sox team that is the clearly the better all-around squad.

The Red Sox are 39-21 overall, and they have far and away the best road record in the American League at 20-11. Besides, their starter Julian Tavarez has actually pitcher better as of late, allowing three earned runs or less in three of his last four starts. Now Micah Owings can be extremely tough for Arizona, but keep in mind that he has accumulated his impressive numbers vs. the National League, and that this Boston offense will be the best one he will have faced to date.

Finally, do not forget that the Red Sox have the lowest bullpen ERA in the American League at 3.03, and therein could lie the key to this victory.

Free Pick: Red Sox -115

[Willie Bee]

Lowe, Dodgers to pop Blue Jays

Game Time: 06/09/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Larry Ness | touthouse.com

Derek Lowe, coming off a no-hit bid earlier this week, goes for his third straight win tonight for the Dodgers. Lay it on Los Angeles at home this evening vs the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Dodgers watched a sure win slip away in the ninth inning on Thursday, allowing the Padres to score five runs in the bottom of the ninth. Just 24 hours later, pinch-hitter Olmedo Saenz hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the 10th inning, lifting the Dodgers to a 4-3 victory in Friday's series opener versus the Blue Jays.

Derek Lowe (6-5, 3.44 ERA) looks to win his third straight start for Los Angeles. He won for the third time in four decisions on Monday at Pittsburgh, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning. He allowed four runs and three hits in 7.2 innings in a 6-5 victory. The Dodgers have won six of Lowe's last eight starts, with the right-hander posting a 2.81 ERA during that span.

More good news comes LA's way by the fact that the Blue Jays are a pathetic 16-26 (minus-$1,450) when facing right-handers in '07. Toronto, beginning a six-game trip through Los Angeles and San Francisco, lost its third straight, the Blue Jays' longest skid since dropping a season-high nine in a row from May 1-10.

Shaun Marcum (2-2, 4.06) gets the start and he has been very good for the Blue Jays since moving into the rotation on May 13. H's 1-0 with a 2.89 ERA in five starts after going 1-2 with a 6.06 ERA in 13 relief appearances, but I won't buck the Dodgers and Lowe in this one. Take LA.

Free Pick: Dodgers -149

[Willie Bee]

Pirates the play vs Yanks & Rocket

Game Time: 06/09/2007 01:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

The Yankees plus Roger Clemens adds up to great value on the Pirates as underdogs this afternoon. Play on Pittsburgh today when they meet New York in Clemens' 2007 debut.

The odds on the Yankees are generally inflated a bit to begin with. That's the case more than ever with the return of the Rocket, Roger Clemens, this afternoon.

Clemens is certainly still capable of rising to the occasion with a big game -- at least the Yankees better hope he is! However, let's keep in mind that this is his first start and that he isn't likely to be his normal dominant self right out of the gate. Note that the 44-year-old future hall-of-famer originally planned to start Monday night against the White Sox. He scratched himself from the outing last Saturday because of what the Yankees said then was a "fatigued" groin, an injury he first felt during a minor league outing May 28. An MRI exam Monday showed Clemens had a scar tissue injury in the right groin.

Pittsburgh Paul Maholm brings some pretty ugly season stats to the table. However, he's been relatively respectable his last three starts, averaging better than seven innings per start while recording a 4.22 ERA and a solid 1.218 WHIP. He'll face a Yankees team which, despite eking out a win last night, is just 4-9 its last 13 games vs. left-handed starters. The Pirates are a profitable 5-3 their last eight road games with four of those five victories coming when they were listed as underdogs.

If you're into big dogs, consider a play on Pittsburgh.

Free Pick: Pirates +225

[Willie Bee]

Bet Angels to crack Cardinals

Game Time: 06/09/2007 07:15 PM -
By: Jeff Alexander | procappers.com

St. Louis just can't find any rhythm this season and are facing a solid Angels team that rallied for a 10-6 win last night. Bet the Halos this evening against the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are just 7-18 (-13.8 Units) against the moneyline when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage greater than .620 over the last two seasons.

Los Angeles is 11-1 (+10.7 Units) against the moneyline when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage in the .380-.460 range this season. Angels starter Ervin Santana is 21-8 (+13.5 Units) against the moneyline vs. teams whose hitters strike out six or fewer times per game over the last two seasons. Los Angeles is 27-12 (+12.1 Units) against the moneyline in night games this season. We'll follow these unstoppable trends to a win today.

Free Pick: Angels +106

[Willie Bee]

Chalk Up Sheets & Brewers -160 at Rangers

Game Time: 06/09/2007 08:35 PM -
By: Jimmy Boyd | touthouse.com

The Texas Rangers have been one of the biggest money-burners in baseball this year, so the Brewers are the easy call here with their ace Ben Sheets on the mound.

The Milwaukee Brewers have the big advantage in this one with Big Ben Sheets on the hill.

Sheets has a sparkling 3.51 ERA and 1.17 WHIP on the season, and the Brewers have won six of his last seven starts. On the other hand, the Texas Rangers are one of the worst underdog teams to bet on in baseball. Texas is just 6-30 against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons, and 12-32 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher at any venue this season.

The Rangers got a rare win last night, but have not been cashing many tickets for their backers this season, so take the Brewers to rebound.

Free Pick: Brewers -160

[Willie Bee]

Make Mets +130 Your Dog Play

Game Time: 06/09/2007 03:55 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Mets took the series opener in Detroit Friday to improve to an unbelievable 19-7 on the road, and with Oliver Perez in peak form and a superior bullpen, let’s go Mets!

It is always hard to resist the New York Mets as an underdog, especially since they own easily the best road record in baseball at 19-7, and today is no exception.

Yes, Jeremy Bonderman has been terrific for the Detroit Tigers, going 5-0 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. However, as great as those key numbers are, Oliver Perez of the Mets actually tops them, with an outstanding 2.80 ERA and 1.02 WHIP! Perez has now allowed three earned runs or less in an amazing seven consecutive strarts.

Finally, these two bullpens are like night and day, as the Mets are sixth in the Major Leagues in pen ERA at 3.47 while the Tigers are third from the bottom at 5.11, ahead of only the White Sox and Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Free Pick: Mets +130

[Willie Bee]

Bet Padres to whip Weaver, Mariners

Game Time: 06/09/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Tom Freese | sportspic.com

Seattle Jeff Weaver was horrible before hitting the DL in May, and he faces the tough task of facing San Diego in his first game back. Play the Padres at home vs the Mariners.

Seattle starter Jeff Weaver is 0-6 this year allowing an incredible 35 runs in 22 innings of work. The Mariners have been outscored in his starts by a combined score of 54-13!

Weaver allowed exactly six earned runs in each of his last three starts before hitting the DL on May 11. Those 18 runs came during a span ofjust 11 innings and not surprisingly Seattle dropped all three games.

San Diego starter David Wells is 8-3 in his last 11 team starts in the month of June. After a rough start to the 2007 season, Wells has settled down in his last four starts allowing seven earned runs in 25 innings (2.52). The Padres are 7-3 in Game 2 of a home series this year. Play On San Diego (Wells vs. Weaver).

Free Pick: Padres -152

[Willie Bee]

Cubs +139 to beat Braves

Game Time: 06/09/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Greg Daraban | playbook.com

The Cubs are starting to hit while the Braves' offense is slumping a bit right now. Take Chicago as road dogs tonight when they meet Atlanta at Turner Field.

This is Game 2 of the only National League Series on the board this weekend. Last night the Cubs laid one on Atlanta, 9-1.

Tonight the Braves send out Tim Hudson who is 6-4. The Cubs send out Jason Marquis who is 5-2. The Braves are not hitting right now as they have scored just 7 runs in their last four games. The Cubs on the other hand are hitting and they have scored 21 runs in their last 4 games. The Cubs pull the upset at Turner Field.

Free Pick: Cubs +139