NCAA Super Regionals

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't know if anyone besides me is playing college ball, but I made a nice little profit last weekend during the regionals. So I'm here to see if I can maybe steal a little more of the pie this weekend. Dog tags will be harder to find with less teams, but value is gonna be there. Super Regionals are best of 3 series for those who do not know.

FRIDAYS EARLY GAME 1s
(Will update with lines when they are released)

Clemson@Mississippi St. (12:00pm ET)
*Friday: CU Daniel Moskos (3-5, 2.91 ERA) vs MSU Chad Crosswhite (8-4, 4.16 ERA)*
Will tell you right now that if Clemson is given the dog in this game, I am jumping all over it. I believe the Tigers will be dogs based on Miss St. beating Florida St. last weekend, a team alot of people were high on. Clemson is a solid team and I think they can win this series. Pitching match-up should favor them if they go with first rounder Daniel Moskos taken 4th overall by the Pirates. Nasty lefty. Clemson was a key money maker for me last weekend in their region, getting prices of Even, +105 and -125 in the games I won with them.

Oklahoma St.@Louisville (2:00pm ET)
*Friday: UL Zack Pitts (9-3, 2.37 ERA) vs OSU Oliver Odle (7-4, 4.39 ERA)*
Two teams that many did not believe would be in this position. Okie State recovered from a poor end to their season and KO'ed home-sitting Arkansas last weekend. Louisville surprised some by ousting host Missouri in their regional. This is another one where if the dog price is right, Okie State is well worth a play.

Will update the two late game match-ups and lines on Friday morning.

[bigboydan]

I haven't taken the plunge yet Mr.Eagles, but I will be tomorrow.


Kinda funny you should mention that Louisville/Oak St. game, because Oak St. is one I'm eying myself. Louisville should have a big let down after betting Missouri like they did. Mizzou threw there stud pitcher 2 days in a row after throwing a 119 pitches the day before is exactly why Louisville advanced most likely.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yikes! Lines are up.

Clemson -165
Miss State +145

Bit surprised by this one. I thought more & more that Clemson might be a small favorite, but not quite this big. Makes picking this one tough now. I think Miss State's massive home field which seats something like 14,000 might play into this as well. That's a big advantage if needed. In looking at this series - Clemson has a tad better pitching I believe while the offenses are pretty even.

OK State -165
Louisville +145

Again a bit surprised here with both road teams getting the heavier fave tags. At this point, will likely lay the price for Clemson and see how that goes before deciding game 2. Now though might lean to Lousville.

Here's the night games.

FRIDAYS NIGHT GAME 1s

Texas A&M (+190)@Rice (-230)
*A&M: David Newmann-LHP (11-1, 2.98 ERA) vs. Rice: Ryan Berry-RHP (11-2, 2.72 ERA)*
Rice is the highest seed left in the tournament at this point. Most pegged them as the faves to win it all before the season began. A&M figures to win a game in this series I think and the fact that they are playing in-state even though on the road means they will have fans at the games. Good dog price here for A&M.

South Carolina (+140)@North Carolina (-160)
*Friday: UNC Robert Woodard (10-2, 3.02 ERA) vs SC Harris Honeycutt (8-5, 3.59 ERA)*
This one is really a pick 'em series. Both teams are solid at the plate and have good pitching depth. UNC might have a slight edge in the pen. This is another 3 game series in the making I believe. Toss a coin each day, probably go with the dog and you might make some money when the pitching match-up is right.

Best advice is to watch the line moves and take your team when the price is right. Pay attention to the pitching match-ups as well.

[EaglesPhan36]

By the way, the lines are already moving.

[BigBollocks]

Eagles do you think there is some value on Mississippi State in the early one? You have to wonder about Moskos' motivation having endured the draft and knowing he's moved on to bigger and better things at this point, but I'm not so sure this shouldn't be closer to a pick 'em anyways. Mississippi State has a pretty large stadium by CBB standards as you said and is one of the most supported teams in college baseball (I can remember S.I. ranking them the best place to watch a CBB gamea years ago), and you have to think that is a huge edge.

I respect Moskos as much as the next guy, but I really think the books have overcompensated and the line is off here....

[Crayzee]

my first bet is in

miss st +150

i will take all the dogs in these games

[EaglesPhan36]

I've been waffling back & forth here for this first one. Moskos is the superior pitcher to Crosswhite, but with the price now at -170 in places and +150 for the Diamond Dogs ... I think I'm gonna go against my intuition and take the Bulldogs for the better price. These two teams met in the Super Regionals last year as well with Clemson winning at home ... they were tough games though, so let's see if home field helps!

I guess go MSU for one unit! Hopefully this day starts off well for us.

[EaglesPhan36]

The LOB parade has followed me to the college ranks. MSU loads the bases with NO OUTS and gets nothing. This is gonna be a long day.

[EaglesPhan36]

And as any good person would know, the half inning after Clemson puts 2 runs on the board. Ugh.

[bigboydan]

I feel that is some inflated value in that Rice/A&M game. I feel the books inflated that line based on there history in this tourney.

[EaglesPhan36]

MSU goes to the pen after Crosswhite gave up a two run jack to cough up the 2-2 tie. 5-2 Tigers in the 6th. Looks like my first instincts should have been the bet! Still time though.

[Crayzee]

BATTLING BULLDAWGS!

they keep coming back

5-5 now

[EaglesPhan36]

Wow! MSU roars right back to tie it at 5.

I made my choice for the 2nd game. Dunno why, just a feeling. Louisville +130.

[EaglesPhan36]

Quite the nice come back by the Diamond Dogs. Let's close this sucker out!

[Crayzee]

8-6 MSU

4-0 LOUIS



hope MSU has a good closer

[EaglesPhan36]

Bulldogs win! That was a great way to start things off after it looked like they were in trouble in the 6th. Cards off to the fast start. I expect OSU will make this a game though.

[Crayzee]

right on bro!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Yikes! Lines are up.
FRIDAYS NIGHT GAME 1s

Texas A&M (+190)@Rice (-230)
*A&M: David Newmann-LHP (11-1, 2.98 ERA) vs. Rice: Ryan Berry-RHP (11-2, 2.72 ERA)*
Rice is the highest seed left in the tournament at this point. Most pegged them as the faves to win it all before the season began. A&M figures to win a game in this series I think and the fact that they are playing in-state even though on the road means they will have fans at the games. Good dog price here for A&M.

South Carolina (+140)@North Carolina (-160)
*Friday: UNC Robert Woodard (10-2, 3.02 ERA) vs SC Harris Honeycutt (8-5, 3.59 ERA)*
This one is really a pick 'em series. Both teams are solid at the plate and have good pitching depth. UNC might have a slight edge in the pen. This is another 3 game series in the making I believe. Toss a coin each day, probably go with the dog and you might make some money when the pitching match-up is right.

Best advice is to watch the line moves and take your team when the price is right. Pay attention to the pitching match-ups as well.

Both these games are 7pm ET starts. Can't go any other way than A&M in Game 1. Price is right and this team has beaten Rice twice this season in Houston, so they are fully capable.

SC-UNC is a toss-up. If I was going to lay the chalk in one, probably this one because UNC seems to have all the pieces + they pulled victory from the jaws of defeat in their regional win which shows they've got something special brewing perhaps. Probably wait up until game time to see the price swings (if any).

[EaglesPhan36]

Louisville 7-0 in the 6th.

[Crayzee]

i'm riding that dog train all the way man!

[EaglesPhan36]

Johnny Drama is on the scene in Louisville. VICTORY! Really surprised that Louisville is spanking them 9-0, but pleasantly pleased!

Crayzee I do think one of the faves wins a night game. Hoping it will be UNC and that we can cash A&M as a big dog!

[EaglesPhan36]

Second wave of games set to begin in about 10 minutes. With both A&M/Rice & SC/UNC being toss-ups in my opinion, I went with the dog tags on both. +185 for A&M and +155 for the Gamecocks. I don't expect both to win, but taking Rice or UNC at the inflated prices made little sense.

[Crayzee]

so far so good bro

long way to go though

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah South Carolina will have to put more runs up to win. North Carolina can make up two runs in the blink of an eye. I expect some offense late in that one. Rice and A&M is playing along the lines of what I was hoping for - solid pitching.

[EaglesPhan36]

Massive blow by the Gamecocks! Grand Slam to take a 6-0 lead. A&M though is still teetering on the brink of giving up the lead. Rice has cut it to 2-1 and still threatens.

[PROGNOSTICATOR]

Excellent write-ups! Clearly you know the College game, and I'll be looking for you in the future...

- RIGGS -

[EaglesPhan36]

Gamecocks must score more again or UNC is gonna rally and win this.

[BigBollocks]

Yes thanks for taking the time to share your knowledge Eagles. It's forums and discussions like this that truly makes it worth your while. My original instinct was a blind play on Clemson as well, but reading your analysis and value thoughts made me rethink things and instead bet what was clearly the educated side in Mississippi State. I hope the Gamecocks pull this out for you as well....

[EaglesPhan36]

No problem. Sometimes reading my own stuff and then getting your input helps me ALOT - as in the MSU play today. I have a feeling UNC is going to run away with this game though against SC. It was 6-0 and the Tar Heels are relentless. Hoping A&M can at least hang on.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ball game right here I believe. If Tar Heels break this now 6-6 tie, I don't think they look back.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like A&M wants to try and make the night games a clean sweep for the faves. Rice ties it in the 9th at 2.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well a shit end to a decent day in the super regionals. SC blows a 6-0 lead. A&M blows a 2-1 game in the 9th and chokes it away in the 10th.

2-2
Made just over a unit altogether because the heavier bets were made on the early games. Could have easily been a 4-0 day, but that's life in the fast lane!

I'll put up some stuff for the SAT games when I get a chance.

[Crayzee]

we won $$ by going all dogs though
think how much anybody lost by going all faves