Friday's Front Page Picks (May 18)

[Willie Bee]

Play Indians vs Reds in Ohio Series

Game Time: 05/18/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com


It's a Buckeye Battle this weekend in Ohio between the Cincinnati Reds and the Indians. Chalk tonight's series opener in Cleveland up to the home team.

The Tribe sends lefty Cliff Lee the hill at the Jake against Reds righty Kyle Lohse this evening knowing Lee is unbeaten, 3-0, in his career team starts against the Reds.

Cleveland is 13-3 at home this season, and a stellar 21-8 against right-handed starters. Cincinnati has hit the skids sine a nice start to the season, going 4-12 this month and finishing up a road trip that has started off with the Reds dropping five of six.

With Lohse 0-4 with an 8.61 ERA in his last four team starts in Cleveland, look for the Indians to improve to 6-1 in home series openers in this in-state interleague game tonight.

Free Pick: Indians -178

[Willie Bee]

Royals right price at Rockies

Game Time: 05/18/2007 09:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | procappers.com


With the Rockies' offense slowed, and the Royals a solid price as the underdog on the road, play on Kansas City tonight in Colorado in this I-70 rivalry.

Don’t look now but here come the Royals. Well, probably not but they are playing some excellent baseball right now, having won four of their last five games all of which have been on the road. This followed a 1-7 stretch so the streaks have been going of late.

Colorado meanwhile has dropped three of four and six of nine as the offense remains a mystery. After averaging 6.8 rpg during a six-game stretch in late April and early May, the Rockies have averaged just 2.8 rpg in the 11 games since. Confidence is playing a big role in the Royals' solid play of late and adding to that confidence is that they defeated a lefty starter for the first time on Thursday after starting the year 0-1 against lefties. They will be facing a lefty for the second straight game as Jeff Francis takes the hill for Colorado. He has been inconsistent this season and despite coming off two straight quality starts, he is coming off a season high 118 pitches. The offense has scored three runs or less in four of his last six starts.

The inconsistent tag can also be placed upon KC starter Jorge De La Rosa as he has alternated good and bad outings for the better part of the season. His numbers indicate it is time for another bad start but something says that he puts two together here. De La Rosa has already managed to pick up four wins while allowing just 21 runs in 51.1 innings with a very solid 28/12 K/BB ratio. He has a very solid 1.25 WHIP on the season, compared to a ratio of 1.54 for Francis. Colorado is hitting just .202 against lefties over its last 10 games and it is 3-8 against southpaw starters which isn’t much better than the Royals.

Play on all underdogs with a moneyline of +125 to +175 that are hitting .260 or worse with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 5.00 or worse on the year. This situation is 32-17 against the moneyline (65.3 percent) since 1997. This underdog system is even stronger based on the high return of the big prices. Play Kansas City for one unit.

Free Pick: Royals +162

[Willie Bee]

Reap rewards with Rangers at Astros

Game Time: 05/18/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com


The battle for the Silver Boot is on down in the Lone Star State. Look for the Texas Rangers to draw first blood tonight when they head south on I-45 to meet the Houston Astros.

Our Friday MLB selection is on the Texas Rangers, as we will play Against Houston Astros starter Matt Albers who has an 11.59 Home ERA this year and a 3.86 WHIP.

Albers has failed to make it past the third inning in two of his previous three starts. He's 1-2 on the season with a 5.47 ERA in his five starting assignments, sporting a 1.50 WHIP and allowing six home runs in 24.2 IP this year.

Also, Robinson Tejeda, the Rangers starting pitcher, has a 1.80 ERA in his lifetime starts vs. the Astros, with a 1.20 WHIP. Take Texas.

Play: Rangers +109

[Willie Bee]

White Sox & Cubs Under 7½

Game Time: 05/18/2007 02:20 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com


Both Windy City clubs have struggled this year against southpaws. And with two on the mound in Wrigley this afternoon, today's White Sox, Cubs game is a solid play on the Under.

Ted Lilly (3-2,2.53), the Chicago Cubs' starting pitcher for today's Wrigley Field tilt against their crosstown rivals the Chicago White Sox, has looked in great form all season long with eight consecutive quality starts.The Cubbies' southpaw has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of those outings, and has not allowed more than four earned runs in a game all season.

His pitching opponent from the Southsiders, Mark Buehrle (2-1,3.61), has also been a consistent force in his teams pitching rotation, having allowed three or fewer earned runs in six of his seven starts during his current campaign. Considering the form of today's starting left-handeed pitchers, and both teams' documented struggles against lefties, it will be an easy decision to back this contest going under the set total.

Final Notes & Trends: Cubs are scoring an average of 2.9 RPG via a lowly .237 BA against lefty starting hurlers this season. The White Sox are averaging 3.2 RPG with a ugly .197 team BA against unorthodox throwers. Play Under.

Free Pick: White Sox-Cubs Under 7½

[onlooker]

3-1, good day for you front pagers.