BuddyBear's Saturday MLB Plays....

[BuddyBear]

Hey fellows....Pretty busy day tomorrow so I did all my research tonight and settled on these five plays. There are some other leans I have but right now these 5 plays are locked and loaded so there is no going back now. Comments and observations are welcome of course. Good luck to everyone tomorrow!

956 WASH +125
952 NYM +108
963 STL +131
974 MINN +103
975 CLEV -128

LEANS BUT NO PLAY:

962 COL +106
979 NYY -138

[pat venditto]

i'll say 2/5 will win :> gl though.

[Senator7]

I like St. Louis and Cleveland on Saturday too but not enough to play them.

[Terpman92]

gl buddy!

[The HG]

956 WASH +125
952 NYM +108
963 STL +131
974 MINN +103
975 CLEV -128

LEANS BUT NO PLAY:

962 COL +106
979 NYY -138

IMHO:

Wash: I think it's ok, I bet it myself already. Not a lot of value there, but I do think it's the right side.

Mets: don't like it too much. I'll be waiting to see the lineups and movement, but I'll almost certainly wind up taking Milwaukee. Pelfrey is really pretty shaky, and Milwaukee will be able to take advantage.


Stl: Don't particularly like it. Stl is broken offensively, and Young, if he's on, will keep them down. Then there's the SD pen. Maybe the plus run line might be better, but at this line I like SD.

Minn: Don't like this one either, I like Det modestly. Detroit will hit Ponson. He may be able to squeeze out some quality starts against lesser lineups, but Detroit will get to him. Durbin's not great, but he has a more legitimate upside than Ponson. Minnesota isn't hitting or winning, and taking them with Ponson going, and not even getting any kind of real plus odds, is a mistake I think.

Cle: Don't like this one either, I like Oak. Cle doesn't hit well in these West Coast parks, and Braden can be effective. This should be a low-scoring close game, and getting Oak at home with plus odds is the side with value, I think.

Colorado - no opinion on this yet, I'll be waiting to check lineups and movement before playing it. right now i'd say i have a slight lean to SF.

Yanks - don't like this one, at this line. Batista will be vulnerable here, for sure, but the Yanks just aren't dominating right now enough to be this kind of road favorite.

[BuddyBear]

I'll briefly respond:

WASH: WASH will undoubtedly be the worst team in the league this year, maybe KC will, but they are still going to win at least 60 games. FLA has been a disappointment thus far. Their pitching has not been as strong and their offense is really reeling right now....that being the case, Matt Chico pitched well in his last outing and has shown signs of improving but still is an average to below average pitcher. Ricky Nolasco not much better in fewer starters. I consider this pitching matchup equal perhaps a slight lean to WASH. Consider WASH is at home, last at bats, getting + odds, and some momentum from yesterday's shutout.....I'll give them a shot.

NYM: I've been a big believer in Ben Sheets. He's been by far my favorite Brewer pitcher. His talent is tremendous and when he is on he is on. Basically he's a younger version of Curt Schilling. But the fact remains the guy is a money burner and has yet to really put it together at any point in his career as evidence by his sub .500 career record. True he is better than Mike Pelfrey but Sheets has never been a strong road pitcher. Pelfrey has put together two decent starts back to back now despite losing both games. Also, I was listening to the Brewers post game show last Sunday on the radio after they beat PITT and Sheets was being interviewed since he started that game and in a rare display of honest Sheets admitted has has thrown horribly this year and has yet to put it together all year. He basically said he's been missing with all his pitches and has really struggled out there. Many of you know his history...he is always hurt. I'll take my chances with NYM at + odds at home.

STL: STL has underachieved all year but Brandon Looper has been their best starter all year. His numbers are just as good as Chris Young's and his ERA is nearly a run lower. Of course I can't predict the future but STL has been shutout 4 times this year and in each subsequent game they won...going back to the past three years, STL is 16-4 (+11.3 units) after being shutout. Young interestingly is one of the few pitchers who has better numbers on the road than at home over the past year and a half...i like this spot with the Cardinals getting + odds with the better pitcher and better situation.

MINN: This game is like Russian Roulette I acknowledge especially with Ponson. But the Tigers have always struggled in MINN and while Durbin has strung together some nice starts, he remains a very average pitcher. A month ago Durbin would have been like +140 or +150 in this matchup but all of a sudden he is favored. True the Twins are struggling and the Tigers are not, but consider that Ponson has been decent this year and Durbin I suppose has done better than expected but in 4 of his 6 starts he has not made it past the 5th inning. I'll take my chances with MINN this afternoon at +odds at home against a very sub par pitcher in a game I think Minn desperately wants to win.

CLEV: Carmona has been pitching very well of late...deserves to be favored. Braden has had two starts already this year and pitched decently but clearly you'd have to consider Carmona the better of the two right now. Not often I role with a road favorite but I am going to take a shot with Carmona and hope he can continue pitching well but I do recognize the risk in this game and in all the others.....


Thanks fellows....

[bigboydan]

I too like the Mets today double B.

The Brewers have beating cellar dwellers during there current winning streak. Other than the Mets putting out a real bad lineup card today, I'll be taking them as well today.

[BuddyBear]

Thanks BBD...did i ever get horrid lines on MINN and CLEV. Plan was to wake up early and study my school stuff....woke up early but did not do the school stuff. I mean geez...14 cents of on each now. At least I got a good line in WASH and STL game and NYM is holding even but i expect money to come in on MIL as game time approaches.

Not a good job at all by me today in getting good numbers....

[Senator7]

NYM: I've been a big believer in Ben Sheets. He's been by far my favorite Brewer pitcher. His talent is tremendous and when he is on he is on. Basically he's a younger version of Curt Schilling. But the fact remains the guy is a money burner and has yet to really put it together at any point in his career as evidence by his sub .500 career record. True he is better than Mike Pelfrey but Sheets has never been a strong road pitcher. Pelfrey has put together two decent starts back to back now despite losing both games. Also, I was listening to the Brewers post game show last Sunday on the radio after they beat PITT and Sheets was being interviewed since he started that game and in a rare display of honest Sheets admitted has has thrown horribly this year and has yet to put it together all year. He basically said he's been missing with all his pitches and has really struggled out there. Many of you know his history...he is always hurt. I'll take my chances with NYM at + odds at home.

I don't know, BB, he sure seemed to have it all together a month ago on Opening Day when he threw a gem against the Dodgers...

[BuddyBear]

What a crappy day....wish I had never placed these bets. Looks like an 0-5 day. How could i be so dumb to back some of these pitchers (Pelfrey & Ponson).....

[Senator7]

What a crappy day....wish I had never placed these bets. Looks like an 0-5 day. How could i be so dumb to back some of these pitchers (Pelfrey & Ponson).....

Ummm...I hate to break this to you, but you're only 0-1 right now.

Way too early to give up on Cleveland and Minnesota and the other two games haven't started yet.

When did you become a glass is half empty type?

[BuddyBear]

I hope you are right Senator....but I have a sick feeling in my stomach right now. I got bad lines on a number of games, i backed bad pitchers...i can't explain it but I just have a very bad bad feeling. I'll take 2-3 today and 3-2 would be a godsend. Good luck to you!

[BuddyBear]

Thanks Senator...talk about a major over reaction tonight...finished a modest 3-2 (+1.56 units) and even got the 2 leans right which tells me my thinking was right. Just backing horrid pitchers today was a major mistake that gave me a horrible feeling not to mention they were the first two games.

[Senator7]

No prob, my friend. Congrats on a pretty solid night.

Hate to say it, but I like The Crew again on Sunday. Capuano @ +106?