Friday's Front Page Picks (May 11)

[Willie Bee]

Side with Snakes over Spacemen

Game Time: 05/11/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence

http://www.playbook.com

D-Backs ace Brandon Webb has been something of an Astros killer over his career. Get behind Arizona tonight when the Snakes head to Houston for the start of a 3-game series.

The Diamondbacks' Brandon Webb takes the hill in Houston knowing his team is 4-1 in his career starts against the Astros.

The defending NL Cy Young award winner had had his ups and downs this season, but checks in with a decent 3.75 ERA. In his most recent three starts against Houston, Webb is 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA, and is 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his most recent start at Minute Maid Park.

With Arizona 4-1 in road series openers, and Houston 1-4 in home series openers this season, look for Webb to continue his winning ways here tonight.

Play: Diamondbacks -120

[Willie Bee]

A’s +115 to Upset Tribe & Sabathia

Game Time: 05/11/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo

http://touthouse.com/

The Indians are perfect in all of C.C. Sabathia’s starts this season, but he has never had much success vs. Oakland, so look for that perfect run to end tonight vs. the underrated Joe Blanton.

We get some good value on the home team in this one, based on the fact that the Indians have yet to lose on the season with C.C. Sabathia on the hill, going a perfect 7-0.

Cleveland may be 11-3 at home, which is the best home record in all of baseball, but it is just 9-9 on the road, including a 3-4 record during this current road trip. In their last 12 games, the Indians are 0-5 when scoring less than four runs and 7-0 when going over four runs. Well, we feel the former is more likely here.

Joe Blanton is a very underrated pitcher in this rotation, and his ability to force ground balls gives him a chance to win every time out. Five of his seven starts have been Quality Starts including both of his home starts. Poor run support has kept him winless at home, but the Athletics exploded on Thursday with their offense and that should carry over here. Blanton has also displayed great control, especially at home where he has a WHIP of 1.02.

Sabathia is off to a tremendous start with six quality outings in his first seven appearances, but this is one team that can end that run. He has struggled against Oakland throughout his career, going 1-4 personally with the Indians going 3-7 as a team in his 10 starts against Oakland. He also has an awful 6.40 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in those starts. The A’s are hitting .303 against southpaws in their last 10 games and Oakland is 7-5 on the season against left-handed starters. Oakland is also 72-30 in their last 102 home games against left-handers.

Blanton is also a pitcher that steps it up against quality competition. With Blanton on the hill, the A’s are 6-0 when playing against a top-level team over the last three seasons and 17-9 against the money line against teams averaging 5.2 or more runs per game on the year over the last three seasons. Finally, Oakland is 7-2 in Blanton’s last nine starts as a home underdog.

Cleveland is well overdue to pick up a loss in this situation and that happens on Friday, as the A’s grab the first game of this series.

Play: Athletics +115

[Willie Bee]

Jays & Rays Under 8½

Game Time: 05/11/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Dennis Macklin

http://www.procappers.com

With the offenses slowed right now and decent arms on the mound for both teams, look for the Under to cash in tonight's Devil Rays, Blue Jays tilt in Toronto.

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are 20-10 on the Over this year, but are 6-2 under in their last eight and hitting just .255 and averaging 3.4 runs a game.

Ace Scott Kazmir gets the call and has 3.71 ERA in '07, but is improving (1.83 in his last three starts) each start. Kazmir has very respectable 3.17 ERA (six earned in his last21 innings vs. Toronto) in nine starts against the Blue Jays.

Toronto is in complete freefall and even saw Roy Halladay shelled last nighy, though they do have AJ Burnett (5 earned, 10 hits, last 21 innings vs. TB) on the mound tonight. Burnett is 5-1 with 2.56 ERA in his nine starts against Tampa. Play the total to go under.

Play: Devil Rays-Blue Jays Under 8½

[Willie Bee]

Chalk Up Twins -200 with Santana

Game Time: 05/11/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Steve Merril

http://touthouse.com/

Johan Santana may not have an impressive won/loss record like in past years, but his still has a 3.40 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, and he has a huge advantage over Mike Maroth and the Tigers here.

The Twins enter off two straight losses, but their recent slump should end tonight with Johan Santana on the mound.

The Twins are just 4-3 SU in Santana’s seven starts this season, but he has still pitched well, with a solid 3.40 ERA and an excellent 1.16 WHIP, to go along with 50-13 strikeout/walk ratio. Keep in mind that Santana started slowly last year in April and then turned things on in May when the Twins proceeded to go on a 12-1 run in his next 13 starts.

Detroit has a major disadvantage tonight as their weakest starter, Mike Maroth, takes the mound. Maroth has struggled with 5.34 ERA and an awful 1.78 WHIP, along with a negative 12-15 strikeout/walk ratio in his six starts this season. Play the Twins in this pitching mismatch.

Play: Twins -200

[Willie Bee]

Make money on the Marlins

Game Time: 05/11/2007 07:05 PM -
By: John Martin

http://www.procappers.com

The brutal truth is the Nationals just aren't any good. Play the Marlins tonight on the road in the nation's capital when Washington entertains Florida.

The Florida Marlins will make a joke out of this terrible Nationals squad today.

Scott Olsen is 7-1 against the moneyline in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last two seasons. Olsen is 8-2 against the moneyline in road games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.

Washington is 3-16 against the moneyline after 7 or more consecutive road games over the last two seasons. Washington is just 4-13 in their last 17 home games. The Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with Washington. The Nationals are 1-5 in Shawn Hill's last six starts as a home underdog. Take the Marlins on the road Friday.

Play: Marlins -113

[Willie Bee]

Take Twins vs Tigers

Game Time: 05/11/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Brad Diamond

http://www.playbook.com

The chalk is thick, but it's worth it when you're laying it on lefty Johan Santana. Take the Twins at home in Minnesota tonight against the Detroit Tigers.

If we catch the Santana-Maroth pitching box on Friday, a solid profit center is on deck, despite the risk factor.

The Twins are red hot in their last six at home vs. the Tigers, going a perfect 6-0. Plus the Twins are on a 4-0 run at home with lefty Johan Santana against the aspiring Detroit franchise while Detroit is 1-6 vs. left-handers of late.

With Minny a very consistent 42-10 in Santana’s starts at home, we’re backing the high-priced chalk.

Play: Twins -200

[AC1318]

I like ari and minn from above

[Willie Bee]

Take Braves +100 vs. Bucs

Game Time: 05/11/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Bill Young

http://touthouse.com/

The Braves are a surprising underdog here, considering that Pittsburgh’s Zach Duke is a disappointing 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA while the Braves are batting the Mets for the National League East lead.

It is shocking to me that the Braves are an underdog against this atrocious Pittsburgh squad in this spot!

Zach Duke is just 1-3 on the season, with a 5.40 ERA in 37 innings. Atlanta is 7-0 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Atlanta is 17-9 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last two seasons. The Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 games against a right-handed starter this season.

All signs point to an easy Braves win on the road.

Play: Braves +100

[Willie Bee]

Back Hamels and Philadelphia

Game Time: 05/11/2007 07:05 PM -
By: John Ryan


Cole Hamels and the Phillies have the advantage at home tonight in Philadelphia when the Chicago Cubs come to open a 3-game series.

Cole Hamels is one of the best young arms in MLB and he has one heck of a change. If you ever have the opportunity to see this kid pitch do yourself a favor and go watch him.

The Cubs have already struggled against left-handed starters batting just 230 with a 297 OBP, just three homers and one steal in 135 AB. Philly is batting 301 in home games at the hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-14 and has made 20 units since 2001. Play against road teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL), averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game on the season.

There you have it. Take the Phils.

Play: Phillies -120

[Willie Bee]

Cubs +110 to Dog Phils

Game Time: 05/11/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Larry Cook

http://touthouse.com/

Rick Hill has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season, and his sensational 1.23 ERA on the road give the Cubs nice value as an underdog in this spot.

Rich Hill has been a pleasant surprise for the Chicago Cubs in the starting rotation this season.

Hill is making up for Carlos Zambrano’s lack of production so far, allowing a total of eight earned runs in nearly 42 innings of work for a 1.73 ERA this season. He has been even better on the road, allowing just three runs in 22 innings for a 1.23 ERA. His 4-1 record is getting overlooked here at this price vs. the Phillies.

Philadelphia is 4-13 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The Cubs may be barely above.500, but their 8-5 road record has given them hope in the National League Central.

Chicago is 9-3 in Hill’s last 12 starts, so take the Cubbies as a small dog Friday.

Play: Cubs +110

[Willie Bee]

Play the Phils vs the Cubbies

Game Time: 05/11/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose



A couple of solid southpaws take to the mound in Philadelphia tonight. But only one will win, and that will be Cole Hamels and the Phillies over Rich Hill and the Cubs.

Chicago has won won nine of their last 12, but tonight they face a team that always gives them trouble.

Both pitchers, Rich Hill for the Cubs and Cole Hamels of the Phillies, are off to good starts to the season. Hill is 4-1 but has dropped two of his last three starts. The Phillies are 9-2 in their last 11 games as the favorite. The Cubs are 8-20 in the last 20 meetings with Philadelphia. Play on the Phils.

Play: Phillies -120

[bigboydan]

I have to disagree with a couple of these touts tonight, because I like the Tigers tonight.

[onlooker]

Out of the games that were mentioned above. I like the Cubs and the Nationals. So I'm with and against a few.