d's plays for 4/30- YTD: 18-16-0 (+7.53 units)

**bigboydan** · 04-30-07, 04:44 PM

I can't dispute your over play in that nats/pads game at all. The SD pen is pretty much spent after yesterdays 17 inning marathon. Not to mention that Patterson has been pitiful in all of his outings this year so for.

**The HG** · 04-30-07, 05:21 PM

The Nats/Pads game is an interesting one. I agree with both plays you made on it, but I'm treading lightly myself. There are enormous unknows here; Patterson, is he broken or will he get better? Peavey, he's off of a high pitch count and 4 days rest, which has historically been a letdown spot for him. SD, how will they respond to the long game from the previous night? These are major unknowns, so I'm going light on the game.

The Cubs over, I'm not sure about. Yes Duke has been hit hard these past 2 years, and the Cubs have the bats to do it. But Hill is the real deal, and he could easily go 7 innings and give up no runs, in which case an over would not be an easy thing to achieve. Duke could easily match him with a 2-run outing, or even if he gets hit, say 6 runs in 6 innings, the game could end with the 2 teams just playing it out, putting up zeros.

**The HG** · 04-30-07, 05:49 PM

Actually, there's a wind blowing out, and a favorable HP ump, I actually think the over is somewhat decent here. The line has gone up as well. GL.