Anyone with me on this one (Minnesota/Detroit)..

**bigboydan** · 04-29-07, 10:56 AM

I'm not playing the over in this game, but I will be taking my chances with Detroit +147.

**go pistons** · 04-29-07, 10:58 AM

Im from Detroit

Santana OWNS the Tigers. Has never given up more than 3 runs in a game against them. I know Santana struggled last time out but I would pass on this game myself.

**BuddyBear** · 04-29-07, 11:00 AM

normally i'd look at DET but the Tigers have been so below average this year and Maroth has been pitiful despite his teams 4-0 record in his starts. He had an 8-1 lead on Monday against Anaheim and couldn't make it out of the 4th inning. He has been getting hit hard.....the Tiger batters are struggling outside of a handful of players and their bullpen is spent with Zumya likely to go on the DL anytime now...and Jones has looked horrible.

Santana, uncharacteristically, has allowed exactly 4 runs in three of his starts this year but each time he did so, he followed it up with a very strong outing. I look for the same here....unless you think Maroth is going to outduel Santana which could happen I would advise against taking the Tigers today.

**The HG** · 04-29-07, 11:02 AM

No way, I like the under a modest amount, but have high confidence in that lean. Santana could well have a shut down start, and Gorman is the HP ump.

**Zerlinco** · 04-29-07, 11:02 AM

Thanx guys. Good follow-up.

GL on your plays.

**BuddyBear** · 04-29-07, 11:04 AM

in reality, -150 is a cheap price for Santana especially against a pitcher like Maroth who has looked very poor for the most part this year. I can see MINN winning something like 5-1 or some score like that....

**go pistons** · 04-29-07, 11:07 AM

I stay away from Tigers or bet with them but never against them after they get embarrassed and Leyland gets ticked off. Two weeks ago they blew a 4-0 lead against the CWS and then came back on Sunday and won in extra innings! Samething happened last year when Leyland threw a fit after a game that they got blown out in.

**Crayzee** · 04-29-07, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

in reality, -150 is a cheap price for Santana especially against a pitcher like Maroth who has looked very poor for the most part this year. I can see MINN winning something like 5-1 or some score like that....

cheap prices arent very often a good thing

**BuddyBear** · 04-29-07, 11:13 AM

DET is a very average ball club despite last year's great season. half their lineup is batting below .200, their bullpen has taken a major step backward, and they won a lot of very close games, lot of late inning dramatics and such.....this year they will regress back to the mean. Lot of people forget that as good as they were last year they didn't win thier division. DET, in my opinion, will be and should be a play against team this year.

**BuddyBear** · 04-29-07, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by Crayzee

cheap prices arent very often a good thing

the reason it is cheap is because 1) Santana hasn't been sharp lately, 2) The game is in Detroit, and 3) Detroit is looking to avoid the sweep.

There may be a handful of times all year where Santana is right around -150. Most games he is going to command at least -200+ (for home games certainly) and on the road he'll be anywhere betwen -130 to -190 depending on the team and venue.

I say with the way the Tigers have been playing and their history against Santana....this is a cheap price. Remember the Tiger bullpen is spent from yesterday. Maroth has not gone into the 7th inning all year. The Tiger batters are struggling, and Zumya and Jones are struggling as well.

I'd take my chances with MINN before I took DET in this game.

**icsky3** · 04-29-07, 12:31 PM

beautiful price on Santana, I know im taking the hell out of it. GL fellas.