Game 6 Simulations

BigAL · 11-03-09, 09:17 AM

interesting

BGboothA · 11-03-09, 12:17 PM

I got to ask, how do you go about simming the games?

KGambler · 11-03-09, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by Sekrah

Just guessed at the lineups:

Rollins
Victorino
Utley
Howard
Werth
Ibanez
Dobbs
Ruiz
Feliz

vs

Jeter
Damon
Teixeira
Rodriguez
Posada
Matsui
Cano
Gardner
Swisher

Martinez vs Pettitte

Sim'd 12000 games.

Yankees win 66.73% of the time (Yankees -200/Phillies +200). Not a whole lot of value there.

Over 9.5 hits 57.04% of the time. Probably a small play on that with about a 4.5% edge over the juice.

I think you should replace Dobbs with Francisco in the lineup. Ibanez will probably be DH, with Francisco taking over LF.

In the Yankees' order I would flip Matsui and Posada, and Swisher and Gardner.

I simmed 32400 games and came up with Yankees -211.

The over also looked very good, but it's tough to sim a World Series game. For example, it's tough to sim the fact that Rivera could very well come in for a 6 out save. That's just one example. Starters are being used as relievers, lefties are coming in to face only 1 or 2 batters, etc. The games are managed a little differently. This leads to lower totals for these games.

I still like the over though.

Sekrah · 11-04-09, 04:50 AM

I ran it with your lineup, and actually lowered the Yankees odds. Actually, I made some adjustments to the benches that I should of had earlier (such as Cabrera being gone) and a couple guys in the bullpen that didn't belong there.

Ran another 12000, Yankees -173. Still doesn't give me much value on the Phillies, maybe if you can get +185. The over is roughly the same, down very slightly to 56.05%. I locked in over 9.5 +100 yesterday, so I'm happy with my 5-7% edge right now. I think the playoff maneuvering that would lead to less runs scored is also offset because you have question marks surrounding the true pitching ability of both starting pitchers. I don't see how anybody can pass up this over.

What base of player stats are you using?

Sekrah · 11-04-09, 05:23 AM

I went a little further and computed run line probabilities from these 12000 games.

Yankees -1.5 +132
Phillies +1.5 -132

Making another 1 unit play on Phillies +1.5 -105

-132 over -105 gives us another 5.71% edge.

KGambler · 11-04-09, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by Sekrah

What base of player stats are you using?

I try to use a weighted average going back 3 years. It's not possible for most players for various reasons, so I have to tweak the stats.

Pedro is a good example of a guy that it is tough to model, and he's obviously a big part of this game.

KGambler · 11-04-09, 12:50 PM

Props I bet:

Andy Pettitte does not get credited with a win -105 5Dimes/Sportsbook
Over 28.5 R+H+E -105 Greek/Bodog
Pettitte more Ks than Pedro -115 Bodog
Teixeira more total bases than Utley -120 Greek/5Dimes

Some of the lines moved after I bet. The books tend to move these lines up and down very easily.

BGboothA · 11-04-09, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by KGambler

Props I bet:

Andy Pettitte does not get credited with a win -105 5Dimes/Sportsbook
Over 28.5 R+H+E -105 Greek/Bodog
Pettitte more Ks than Pedro -115 Bodog
Teixeira more total bases than Utley -120 Greek/5Dimes

Some of the lines moved after I bet. The books tend to move these lines up and down very easily.

Teixeira is -120 over Utley???

KGambler · 11-04-09, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by BGboothA

Teixeira is -120 over Utley???

Yeah, hurry up and bet the other side so I can bet more on Tex. They move the line on any bet.

Sekrah · 11-04-09, 03:39 PM

Definently agree with you on Pedro's numbers here. They are very difficult to gauge.

Originally posted by KGambler

Props I bet:

Andy Pettitte does not get credited with a win -105 5Dimes/Sportsbook

Excellent value! I have this bet at being closer to -132 (57%).

Over 28.5 R+H+E -105 Greek/Bodog

Not sure what you came up with here, but I have this very close at -112 (53.04%)

Pettitte more Ks than Pedro -115 Bodog

I have Pettitte -117 here (53.94%)

Teixeira more total bases than Utley -120 Greek/5Dimes

Not bad.. I have Teixeira -135 here (57.53%)

Good luck my man!

KGambler · 11-04-09, 04:00 PM

Yankee lineup has been announced.

Jeter
Damon
Teixeira
Rodriguez
Matsui
Posada
Cano
Swisher
Gardner

Also official:

Victorino is playing, Ibanez is DH, Francisco is LF