Pitt down to -105?

**RickySteve** · 04-09-07, 01:00 PM

100% agreed. I can't understand the movement on this game.

**tevari** · 04-09-07, 01:13 PM

looper is absolute trash, and yes i am a mets fan.

**RickySteve** · 04-09-07, 01:21 PM

This seems to be a textbook example of public perception being completely out-of-step with fundamental values. Pittsburgh's lineup is better, they are at home, and Snell is a MUCH better starter than Looper. Neither team has an edge in the bullpen.

Meanwhile, the market is seeing a guy who had a 3.56 ERA last season, starting for the "World Series Champs" versus the (seemingly) inept Pirates, getting plus odds. They're firing away on reflex.

**The HG** · 04-09-07, 02:15 PM

Maybe so. It was definitely a very suspicious movement, it made me think twice. It had the classic "someone knows something" feel to it, because it made so little sense, it made a little too much little sense.

But I went for it anyway. To take the bait or not to take the bait, that is the question. When it comes to movements like that, it's a judgment call, there's no statistical analysis you can do to tell you what is best - as you said RickySteve, the fundamentals would only ever point to Pitt in this one.

I decided to take the bait, put a regular-range amount on it. If I get burned, so be it, I considered it carefully. But it sure was an eyebrow raising line movement.

**R3Sports** · 04-09-07, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by tevari

looper is absolute trash, and yes i am a mets fan.

haha word, same here.

**Razz** · 04-09-07, 02:54 PM

I ended up taking the Pirates as well. Oh well. Maybe Looper's not that bad. He was good against the Mets, and fantastic today.

**RickySteve** · 04-09-07, 03:18 PM

Braden Looper, Ryan Franklin(!!!) and Jason Isringhausen toss a 3-hitter. That's a 6-sigma event.

**BuddyBear** · 04-09-07, 03:32 PM

unreal.....