Cubs seem like a really good play for Monday don't they? Would love you're thoughts..

**austintx05** · 04-08-07, 07:13 PM

I would have to take a strong look at the Over here. Lilly is not the pitcher you need to lay -144 with...I like both teams chances to score a bunch. Both pens are bad and I see a 4-3/4-4 game going into the 6th...as I thin both pitvhers are good for 4 runs a piece and the pens shoud get ya the rest...I couldn't see a total exceeding 11 here.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-08-07, 07:26 PM

Still analyzing this one for my daily Astros Pick. Certainly HOU stinks right now. Woody Williams does not have good career #s against CHI and particularly at Wrigley Field. The Astros have however hit .320 vs. lefties in limited ABs this season and it'll be interesting to see if Lilly can handle pitching inside a smaller ballpark.

Definitely leaning toward the Cubs & I would think if you're backing them, get that price now because I think it'll keep climbing.

**austintx05** · 04-08-07, 07:31 PM

Cubs are definately not wirth -140...maybe -120...just ask yourself if the game is tied in the 6th, do you want to lay -144 with the Cubs bullpen?

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-08-07, 07:33 PM

The way the Astros are hitting, I'd trust the Cubs bullpen.

**austintx05** · 04-08-07, 07:49 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

The way the Astros are hitting, I'd trust the Cubs bullpen.

Be my guest. Laying -140 on the Cubs bullpen is a losing proposition. Lets get real...Cubs had a good series taking 2 out of 3 in Milwaukee and they weren't bad bets getting money...but laying money is a different story. Cubs might win, but why would you lay -140 to find out? All I will say is that if you do, you will find youself losing more than winning. You don't win at baseball laying chalk on sub par teams like Chicago.

**imgv94** · 04-08-07, 07:50 PM

I've never liked Houston on the road
Last 3 years

Houston 76-92 on road
Houston 103-72 @ Home

I see the Cubs scoring 6+ runs in this game..

**imgv94** · 04-08-07, 07:51 PM

Originally posted by austintx05

You don't win at baseball laying chalk on sub par teams like Chicago.

Are you sure the Cubs are a subpar team? I think they are pretty good..

**austintx05** · 04-08-07, 08:06 PM

Their bullpen is very subpar which makes their team subpar.

Most will fall i love wth the Cubs and their bats...its just like the Mets...Cubs will produce more offense with the additiosn of a healthy Lee/Soriano/Floyd/Ramirez...I thin kCubs will be a great Over team...as this is nothing new...but I am talking about beating the line in baseball and when it coms to that you ar not going to do it laying heavy chalk on bad pens. Don't let me stop you from laying -140 on the Cubs tommorrow, but a couple blown leads at that price will definately change your thinking.

In regards to your Cubs will score 6 runs...do you see the Stros getting shutout by Lilly? Personally, I like the Over here if I had to play it. In Lilly's last game vs Houston he gave up 7 hits/4 runs - 3 of those runs were HR's in 6 innings...throw into the mix that you are playing in Wrigley...seems like the Over is the best side.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-08-07, 08:50 PM

Until Houston scores runs, it's hard to play the over in any of their games. I suspect the total in this one will be 10 or 10.5 unless the wind is blowing in, then maybe 9.5

**austintx05** · 04-08-07, 08:53 PM

Its in Wrigely...runs will be scored

**Razz** · 04-08-07, 09:26 PM

The Cubs aren't impressive, but the Astros are just depressing. I don't see much value either way in the line personally.

**RickySteve** · 04-08-07, 11:27 PM

The game is perfectly lined. Stay away.

**The HG** · 04-09-07, 09:02 AM

Great discussion guys, I agree that there's no clear value with either side of the ML, but that the over could be a good play depending on the line/lineup/weather factors.

EaglesPhan, you think the total will be in double digits? I'd be surprised if that were the case, with Lilly pitching well last game and Houston not hitting.

If the line comes out at 9 I'll probably take the over. If it's in DD, I might consider an under depending on the weather and the lineup.

**mavs1978** · 04-09-07, 09:06 AM

id take houston if i had to

**The HG** · 04-09-07, 09:42 AM

The total is around 8.5 at plus odds or 8 at fave odds. The over may well be a great play here, but I'm going to wait to look at the weather and wind report closer to game time. Assuming there's not a 15 MPH wind blowing in, I like the over much more than either side.

**tevari** · 04-09-07, 10:36 AM

agreeing with ganch here..

**austintx05** · 04-09-07, 04:17 PM

see what I mean....

Sorry you had to learn the hard way imgv...I just know that laying heavy chalk on bad teams is a losing proposition.

**austintx05** · 04-09-07, 10:16 PM

funny how everyone comes at me to disprove my point becaus they think I am wrong...yet when I am right, no responses....FUNNY how that works

**imgv94** · 04-09-07, 10:34 PM

I mentioned you in my tuesday thread..

No more -144 multi unit plays for me especially when team has shitty bullpen.

Cubs could of won this one, but this wasn't how a -144 fav should of gone anyway.

**austintx05** · 04-09-07, 11:13 PM

never directed that towards you my man