Underdog experiment

[jesterson]

OK, since 1, count em 1 person wants to see this, I guess I'll do it. The idea is to bet 1 unit on all the underdogs, every day, and track it. I forget who it was that did this last year, but it was fairly solid until August or so.

For yesterday's and today's games:

Mets 128
Braves -105
Nats 105
Rays 150
Tigers -105
Dodgers -105
Indians 100
Reds 100
Rox 100
Royals 145
As -105
Pirates 170
Os 180
Rangers 130

Results later, as well as a running tally thanks to Excel's nested IF and AND statements.

[babaoriley]

Should be interesting. Thanks for doing this.

[LT Profits]

Hey jetserson,

I like the idea but I would only play on dogs of +101 or more, i.e., plays where the profit REALLY exceeds the risk. Also, those look like square lines you posted, so I would look for a reduced juice book. For example, I bet Oakland at +117 at 5 Dimes, a far cry from your -105.

Still, this should be very interesting.

[rjt721]

Also looking forward to seeing how this turns out.

[ShamsWoof10]

I tried this with basketball before... Dog ML's and I think with hoops there is much more value in dogs ML's because you'll have a +1000 like the Celtics win on SHAMrock day while you don't see many +1000's in baseball.... Anyway it did OK for a bit but overall not all that good.... Favorites wins most of the time and I would like in hoops to try selling points on every favorite to make it a plus line and see how that works... This should be interesting none the less... If you are actually wagering on all of them I wish you the best of luck....

[The HG]

Are you going to track it using closing lines? Or opening lines? Or lines at a fixed time?

Especially early in the year, MLB lines really move. Just today, there were many games that started out with a modest-sized dog, which moved to close to even, and many games that started out close to even that moved to have a modest-sized dog.

And, especially in today's environment, with Pinny closed to US customers, some people using exchanges a lot, and the uncertainty as to who will and will not continue to bet on MLB games, the results of something like this are likely to be different from what they might have been in the past, or will be in the future if things ever return more to "normal".

But it will be interesting to see what the results are, for sure.

[jesterson]

Hey jetserson,

I like the idea but I would only play on dogs of +101 or more, i.e., plays where the profit REALLY exceeds the risk. Also, those look like square lines you posted, so I would look for a reduced juice book. For example, I bet Oakland at +117 at 5 Dimes, a far cry from your -105.

Still, this should be very interesting.

They are, I copied it right out of my spreadsheet...I believe it was Onlooker who did this last year, starting in June, using opening lines from Pinnacle. I would do it another book, but it's easiest for me to work from Bodog since I'm trying $1 per game, I've got $ on there from poker (as an aside, the pond is indeed drying up), and trying to deposit/cash out is something I only want to do with a book I've dealt with in the past given the current sorry state of affairs.

If you want to try it for fun with more updated lines or those from an RJ book, let me know and I'll send you the formula for Excel in case you're inexperienced with it or just don't want to think.

If you want to check the results from last year, sort the "replies" column in Baseball capping and look about 1/4 of the page down, "Blindly Betting Underdogs". Thanks, and sorry about Oakland! (not really, seattle completed my first successful parlay of the year at 24-1 )

[jesterson]

Are you going to track it using closing lines? Or opening lines? Or lines at a fixed time?

Especially early in the year, MLB lines really move. Just today, there were many games that started out with a modest-sized dog, which moved to close to even, and many games that started out close to even that moved to have a modest-sized dog.

And, especially in today's environment, with Pinny closed to US customers, some people using exchanges a lot, and the uncertainty as to who will and will not continue to bet on MLB games, the results of something like this are likely to be different from what they might have been in the past, or will be in the future if things ever return more to "normal".

But it will be interesting to see what the results are, for sure.

Opening, at least for now. I think that's simply the easiest way to do it because if I'm doing it blindly, any movements from open are generally going to be dictated by action at a particular book, am I right?

[AC1318]

how about tracking home dogs instead less work and I think more profit

[Hulu]

I went back and tracked dogs from opening day until the all star break from 2004 to 2006 and although I'm still working with the data, my initial results show that things vary wildly. 2004 was an amazing year for dogs, showing a profit of 70.45 units whereas 2005 and 2006 showed a slight loss (<3 units in both cases) so I'm not sure blindly betting dogs will consistently yield a profit unless one finds another filter to narrow down the field.

I plan to go back and get another year of data when I have time.

[jesterson]

[QUOTE=jesterson;246711]

Results for 4/2:

Mets 128 1.28
Braves -105 0.95
Nats 105 -1
Rays 150 -1
Tigers -105 -1
Dodgers -105 -1
Indians 100 1
Reds 100 1
Rox 100 -1
Royals 145 1.45
As -105 -1
Pirates 170 1.7
Os 180 -1
Rangers 130 -1

For a loss of $0.62 on the day.
QUOTE]

For 4/3:

Padres 100
Nats 120
Dodgers 115
Pirates 160
Os 120
Dbacks 115
As 105
Rangers 135
Mets -105

[LT Profits]

jesterson,

Judging by the way you graded your plays, I see that you always RISK one unit, thus the -1 at -105 odds and the +0.95 on the -105 winner. This futher illustrates the point that you should probably bet on +101 or higher only, ignoring the "negative" underdogs and +100s. Again, a reduced juice book would mean more plays at better odds.

[jesterson]

jesterson,

Judging by the way you graded your plays, I see that you always RISK one unit, thus the -1 at -105 odds and the +0.95 on the -105 winner. This futher illustrates the point that you should probably bet on +101 or higher only, ignoring the "negative" underdogs and +100s. Again, a reduced juice book would mean more plays at better odds.

yeah, I know where you're coming from, but he idea is to bet underdogs blindly, regardless of how big or small. And I'm workin on switching books, just need to figure out the logistics of it all without depositing any more cash.

[jesterson]

Results For 4/3:

Padres 100 1 w
Nats 120 -1 l
Dodgers 115 -1 l
Pirates 160 1.6 w
Os 120 -1 l
Dbacks 115 -1 l
As 105 -1 l
Rangers 135 -1 l
Mets -105 0.95 w

3-6, for a loss of 2.44 units on the day

Season W/L: 9-14

Plays for 4/4:

Nats 135
Jays -103
Indians -110
Dbacks -110
Rangers 130
Braves 107
Cubs 115
Brewers 100
Pirates 145
Mets -110
Royals 145
Os 120
Mariners 105
Padres -105

[jesterson]

Got behind on posting for a day, so here's 4/4 and 4/5's results:

4/4:
Nats 135 1.35 W
Jays -103 -1 L
Indians -110 0.90 W
Dbacks -110 -1 L
Rangers 130 -1 L
Braves 107 1.07 W
Cubs 115 1.15 W
Brewers 100 -1 L
Pirates 145 1.45 W
Mets -110 0.90 W
Royals 145 -1 L
Os 120 -1 L
Mariners 105 -1 L
Padres -105 0.95 W

for a net loss of .79 units on the day

And for 4/5:

Reds 100 1 W
Indians -102 -1 L
Royals 160 -1 L
Braves 100 1 W
Nats 110 -1 L
Rays 250 2.5 W
As 130 1.3 W
Giants 102 1.02 W

For a net gain of 3.82 units (best so far in the young season). It also put us back in the black by 1.54 units on a W/L of 21-24.

I'll post today's shortly.

[jesterson]

Games for 4/6:

Rangers 102
Mariners 140
Marlins 102
Nats 102
Os 200
Pirates 104
Rays 108
Mets -105
Cubs 108
Astros 111
Twins 122
Royals 153
Rox 137
As 110
Dodgers 102

[jesterson]

Good day for the dogs yesterday, +5.05 units on a W/L of 8-5 (YTD: +6.59 units, 29-29)

Rangers 102 1.02 W
Marlins 102 -1 L
Nats 102 -1 L
Os 200 2 W
Pirates 104 -1 L
Rays 108 1.08 W
Mets -105 0.95 W
Cubs 108 1.08 W
Astros 111 -1 L
Royals 153 1.53 W
Rox 137 1.37 W
As 110 -1 L
Dodgers 102 1.02 W

Today's in a bit.

[jesterson]

Let's see if the dogs can keep the run going!

4/7:

Cubs 108
Pirates 153
Os 185
Royals 113
Giants 126
Mets 101
Twins 119
Phillies 102
Nats 129
Cards 151
Rays 115
Red Sox 117
As 118
Rox 135

[moses millsap]

I think faves went 13-1 on Saturday. Awesome.

[jesterson]

I think faves went 13-1 on Saturday. Awesome.

Yeah, it was bad...1-13 for a loss of 11.92 units on the day, - 5.32 for the year on a W/L of 30-42

Cubs 108 1.08 W
Pirates 153 -1 L
Os 185 -1 L
Royals 113 -1 L
Giants 126 -1 L
Mets 101 -1 L
Twins 119 -1 L
Phillies 102 -1 L
Nats 129 -1 L
Cards 151 -1 L
Rays 115 -1 L
Red Sox 117 -1 L
As 118 -1 L
Rox 135 -1 L

[jesterson]

And for today, albeit late:

Phillies 110
Braves 120
Os 140
Pirates -105
Nats 125
Rays 135
Cubs 110
Cards 110
W Sox 170
Royals 150
As 130
Rox 170
Dodgers 120
Rangers 120

[jesterson]

Sunday's results:

Phillies 110 -1 L
Braves 120 1.2 W
Os 140 1.4 W
Pirates -105 0.95 W
Nats 125 -1 L
Rays 135 -1 L
Cubs 110 -1 L
Cards 110 1.1 W
W Sox 170 -1 L
Royals 150 -1 L
As 130 1.3 W
Rox 170 -1 L
Dodgers 120 1.2 W
Rangers 120 -1 L

Day: 6-8, -.84 units
YTD: 36-50, -6.16 units

And Monday's games (I selected St Louis by accident in a hurry):

Phillies 122
Cards -106
Astros 153
Tigers 118
Rox 135
Brewers 110
Twins 120
Royals 185
Rays 140
Reds -101
Giants 114
W Sox 153

[jesterson]

Another slightly down day for the dogs (5-7, -.65 units):

Phillies 122 -1 L
Cards -106 0.94 W
Astros 153 1.53 W
Tigers 118 -1 L
Rox 135 1.35 W
Brewers 110 -1 L
Twins 120 -1 L
Royals 185 -1 L
Rays 140 -1 L
Reds -101 0.99 W
Giants 114 -1 L
W Sox 153 1.53 W

YTD: 41-57, -6.82 units

And Tuesday's games:

Mariners 172
Astros 134
Brewers 115
Cards 118
Angels 123
Os 120
Royals 135
Nats 220
Rays 130
Twins 125
Reds 114
Giants 118
W Sox -105
Rox 117

[bigboydan]

When you get around the 15-18th range of the month of April. I think thats when you will really notice the dogs start to pick up quite a few units Jesterson.

[jesterson]

When you get around the 15-18th range of the month of April. I think thats when you will really notice the dogs start to pick up quite a few units Jesterson.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking too...Also, I just switched to a reduiced juice book, so that should help.

[jesterson]

Another bad day for the dogs, 5-9, -2.8 units (YTD: 46-66, -9.62)

Mariners 172 -1 L
Astros 134 1.34 W
Brewers 115 1.15 W
Cards 118 1.18 W
Angels 123 -1 L
Os 120 -1 L
Royals 135 1.35 W
Nats 220 -1 L
Rays 130 -1 L
Twins 125 -1 L
Reds 114 -1 L
Giants 118 1.18 W
W Sox -105 -1 L
Rox 117 -1 L


Wednesday's games:

Pirates 125
Astros 155
Brewers -101
Phillies 135
Nats 220
Reds 113
Giants 137
Rox 142
W Sox -102
Angels 119
Os 127
Mariners 150
Royals 159
Rays 152
Twins 134

[jesterson]

Good Day on Wed, 8-6, +4 units (YTD: 54-72, -5.62)

Thursday's dogs:

Phillies 137
Nats 270
Angels 127
Royals 116
Tigers 116
Rays 146

[jesterson]

A marginal loss Thursday, -.14 units, 2-4 (YTD: -4.36 units, 58-77)

Phillies 137 -1.00 L
Nats 270 2.70 W
Angels 127 -1.00 L
Royals 116 -1.00 L
Tigers 116 1.16 W
Rays 146 -1.00 L

Friday's games:

Reds 140
Astros 102
Giants 140
Nats 178
Marlins 102
Rox 166
Padres 115
Royals 161
Indians 100
Tigers 138
Rays 201
As 101
Angels -102
Rangers -102

[jesterson]

It's been a crazy weekend and I haven't posted the games, but the good news is the dogs are back in the black after a strong Friday and Sunday!

Fri: 8-6, +4.48 units
Sat: 4-7, -1.06 units (lines for 2 games posted late, not incl.)
Sun: 6-4, +3.32 units
YTD: 74-93, +.97 units

Monday's games:

Nats 173
Mets 104
Reds 107
Marlins 108
Padres 112
Pirates 117
Giants 120
Dbacks 107
Angels 166
Royals 183
Os 105


It's going to be interesting to see what happens once the weather warms up and power numbers start to moderate.

[jesterson]

Monday's games:

Nats 173 1.73 W
Reds 107 -1.00 L
Marlins 108 -1.00 L
Padres 112 -1.00 L
Pirates 117 1.17 W
Giants 120 1.20 W
Dbacks 107 -1.00 L
Angels 166 -1.00 L
Royals 183 -1.00 L
Os 105 1.05 W

A loss of .85 units on Monday on a W/l of 4-6. YTD: 78-99,
+.12 units.

Tuesday's games:

Pirates 152
Cubs 107
Brewers 116
Marlins 187
Giants -101
Dodgers 106
Indians 125
Royals 183
Jays 140
Os 101
Rangers 128
Angels -102
Twins 100
Nats 188
Phillies 108

[jesterson]

I sure am getting lazy posting....

Tues: 5-10, -3.77 units

Wed: 8-7, +3.32 units

A terrible day yesterday: 2-9, -5.94 units (YTD:93-125, -6.26)

Friday's games:
Cards 122
Nats 152
Mets 112
Phillies 120
Astros 160
Rox -101
Dbacks -101
Pirates 162
W Sox 103
Yankees 103
Jays 118
Rays 176
As 109
Royals 115
Mariners 117

[jesterson]

It was a good week for the doggies, overcoming a -8 unit day to finish 46-51, good for 8.73 units, and that's not counting Monday as I neglected to log it. The week put it back in the black by 2.46 units on a total W/L of 139-176 for the young season.

I figure I'm probably just gonna post the results weekly, as it's easier for me with my crazy schedule/forgetful mind.

[jesterson]

Awful awful week, mostly because of the past few days.

Week: -23.47 units, 29-60 W/L

YTD: -21.01 units, 168-236 W/L

[Hulu]

Dogs are just not cashing right now. I didn't really expect to see this until June. Hopefully they will rebound somewhat in the next week.

[EBone]

Dogs are just not cashing right now. I didn't really expect to see this until June. Hopefully they will rebound somewhat in the next week.

Ditto. I'm strugglin' mightily because of the above statement. I'm -12 units on the year because history has not shown itself yet this year. Maybe they'll start cashing in June and July. We shall see.



E