GiveMeaBJ's MLB Wednesday

GiveMeaBJ · 09-23-09, 01:15 AM

Cincinatti Reds -115 (5 Dimes) to win 1 Unit
Did I mention how bad the Pirates have been? If you missed it here it is again, since the trade deadline (when the Pirates traded everyone) the Pirates are just 12-35. After a loss last night they are now just 3-21 in their last 24 games. Ouch. Homer Bailey's season stats sure aren't impressive but he has thrown the ball much better over his last several starts. He is coming off 7 innings of 3 hit, shutout ball against the Marlins. In his last 39.1 innings he has allowed 8 ER. Thats good for a 1.83 ERA over his past 6 starts. In that span he faced the Pirates twice, both Reds victories, and combined for 13.1 innings of 4 run ball against them. His starts in this great stretch didn't come against scrubs either. His other four starts were against the Dodgers, Marlins, @ Cubs, and @ Rockies. Kevin Hart is coming off of a good start @ the Dodgers but since coming to the Pirates he has made 8 starts and is 1-6 in those starts with an ERA of 6.00.
Reds 4, Pirates 2

oda11 · 09-23-09, 01:21 AM

I am heavy on the Angels, not sure if thats bad or good news to you,

GiveMeaBJ · 09-23-09, 01:22 AM

Will add more in the AM.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-23-09, 01:22 AM

Always good to be on the same side as you pal.

oda11 · 09-23-09, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

Always good to be on the same side as you pal.

Man, I am flattered

Good luck tomorrow bud, I am on Angels ML and the Over for appetizers...

Gaston Monescu · 09-23-09, 01:45 AM

Running with you with a 3 team parlay.

09/23/09
Reds (Cincinnati)-125
Angels (LAA)-112
Yankees (NewYork)/Angels (LAA) Under 9.5 (-115)

Your Total Bet:40.50
Total Potential Win:217.48

Let's win.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-23-09, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by Gaston Monescu

Running with you with a 3 team parlay.

09/23/09
Reds (Cincinnati)-125
Angels (LAA)-112
Yankees (NewYork)/Angels (LAA) Under 9.5 (-115)

Your Total Bet:40.50
Total Potential Win:217.48

Let's win.

Really like how this parlay looks. Expecting a strong start from Kazmir and solid work from Burnett. Really like the Reds may add to them before first pitch.

IcE · 09-23-09, 09:40 AM

like how u include write ups with your picks BOL

GiveMeaBJ · 09-23-09, 09:47 AM

Orioles/Blue Jays Over 9.5 (-106) to win 1 Unit
Scott Richmond is going to the bump for the Blue Jays in this one and he has been flat out awful lately. In his last start he was roughed up by the Rays for 5 runs in just 2 innings of work. Before that, 6 runs against Detroit in just 4.1 innings. As a matter of fact he hasn't given up less then 5 runs in a start since August 22 where he allowed 4 runs. His last 5 starts see 22.1 innings of work and 28 runs allowed. Ouch. He hasn't pitched to the under since June 30th. Jeremy Guthrie actually hasn't pitched bad lately. However, in his last 11.1 innings he has alowed 27 baserunners. He is bad on the road with an ERA well over 5.00 this year on the road. I think these two teams with nothing to play for slug it out a bit and get this one over the number.
Orioles 8, Blue Jays 6

Irish Lumberjack · 09-23-09, 09:52 AM

Nice write ups along with your picks, this is my first time looking in on one of your posts and I like how you lay your picks right out. nice write-ups score predictions. Well done.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-23-09, 10:10 AM

Atlanta Braves -121 to win 1 Unit
Don't be fooled here. The Braves are still playing good hard baseball and yes the Mets are capable of getting swept at home against a division rival. Pelfery has been pathetic since the all-star break going just 3-7 good for a 5.95 ERA. His ERA is 9.00 against the Braves this year giving up 11 ER in 11 innings. Hudson has been good since returning at the beginning of September. He has had 2 good starts, 1 great start, and one shaky start where he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings @ Stl. The Mets have enough trouble hitting as it is I don't think Hudson on the mound will help them much. The Braves wild card hopes are probably dead but they are still going to push the envelope. I think they beleive they can take this one against the Mets and 6 of 7 against the Nats. Then if they can take 2 from the Fish that would leave them at 9-2 to close the season. Would that be good enough to get it done? Well it would certainly close the gap a bit. I don't think they are sold they are done yet.
Braves 5, Mets 3

GiveMeaBJ · 09-23-09, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by Irish Lumberjack

Nice write ups along with your picks, this is my first time looking in on one of your posts and I like how you lay your picks right out. nice write-ups score predictions. Well done.

Thank you sir. Always good to have support.

pattymayo · 09-23-09, 10:13 AM

Yanks will win today.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-23-09, 10:21 AM

Philadelphia Phillies -144 to win 1 Unit
Cole Hamels has stated that he can feel the improvement of his changeup over the second half of the season. That certainly seems to be the case. After a shaky first half Hames has rebounded well with a post all star ERA of 3.08. He is pitching on probably his best streak of the season right now. In his last 37.1 innings he has allowed just 6 runs. Thats good for a 1.45 ERA. He has a career 3.81 ERA in Miami and as mentioned yesterday the Phillies are now 9-1 in their last 10 in Miami. The Dolphins have been struggling and they seem flat after a dissapointing mini-collapse to all but eliminate them from the wildcard. Rick VandenHurk comes to the mound for the Marlins and he seems to be a bit overvalued here. He has been solid in his 9 starts this year but has been shaky against the better hitting line ups he has faced. The Phils certainly are in that category. This price on Hamels against the Marlins is too good for me to pass on.
Phillies 5, Marlins 2

GiveMeaBJ · 09-23-09, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by pattymayo

Yanks will win today.

Ok.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-23-09, 10:29 AM

St. Louis Cardinals -120 to win 1 Unit
John Smoltz has come to the Cardinals and has been everything they had hoped for. They claimed he was tipping his pitches and fixed it and since coming to the Cards he has a 3.21 ERA and the Cards are 4-1 in his starts. Smoltz gets to face the Astros who have seemed to have given up on the season. They have dropped 9 straight and are averaging just 2.2 runs per game in that stretch. Bud Norris will throw for them and although he has strung together three solid starts in a row I haven't noticed anything different from when he was getting shelled. Against the Cardinals I think the Cardinals will get their runs and the Astros woes continue until tomorrows off-day when they can sort things out.
Cardinals 3, Astros 1

GiveMeaBJ · 09-23-09, 10:35 AM

Adding 2 more units to Cincinatti at -117.

Cincinatti Reds -117 to win 2 Units

oda11 · 09-23-09, 11:05 AM

Good luck today GMBJ.

Gaston Monescu · 09-23-09, 07:01 PM

Looks like everyone went with the Angels...my parlay died, but interestingly, the under hit (but I didn't bet it individually) and Reds are looking good right now (I did bet that individually)...at the very least, there was a chance for the Angels.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-23-09, 08:02 PM

Yea thought Burnett would have gotten hit a little bit harder. The funny thing is I was so on the fence of playing the under I actually typed a write-up in anticipation of pulling the trigger but then at about 2:30 decided to lay off. I mean, I had it capped at 7 which really gives me no reason to not play it but my dilemma was I hate playing unders and sides opposing teams that can hit. You know if the Yankees go and score 4 which they very well could have I am stuck praying to split. At least my bigger play on the Reds is looking solid.

Good call pattymayo.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-23-09, 08:31 PM

The Jays/O's game finally sneaks over. That would have been a tough one to swallow.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-23-09, 11:22 PM

La Angels -107: Loss -1.07 Units (-1.07 Units)
Cincinatti Reds -115: Win +1.00 Units (-0.07 Units)
Cincinatti Reds -117: Win +2.00 Units (+1.93 Units)
Orioles/Blue Jays Over 9.5: Win +1.00 Units (+2.93 Units)
Atlanta Braves -121: Win +1.00 Units (+3.93 Units)
Philadelphia Phillies -144: Loss -1.44 Units (+2.49 Units)
St. Louis Cardinals -120: Loss -1.20 Units (+1.29 Units)

Thats it 5th straight winning day in a row! Could have been a bigger night if Phillies could have held on!