DraftKings MLB Up 2 Early Win Promo

[stevenash]

With a couple of exceptions today's slate is loaded with horse crap pitching.

Glasnow may be worth a play at around a pick 'em.
However, Gil has a nasty arsenal, NYY if the price is right could be a play as well.

Miami too is worth a look, once upon a time Carlos Carrasco was a clutch, premium pitcher, now a punching bag, or as I like to call a hamburger. Miami has enough lumber to reach CC, even though Trevor Rogers can be sketchy, Cleveland doesn't really smash lefties.

Hurston Waldrep v. DJ Herz, Bailey Ober v. Jarred Jones?
WTF is that!

Those are two bullpen games, handicap the bullpens, the answer lies there.

Difficult slate of games to navigate today.

[ThaWoj]

Well I had dodgers last night that makes 9 in a row i believe all for the $250 max...too bad I'm a total degenerate.

Dont see anything today at all. Small lean on twins +100 or nats as home dog. Probably will go twins.

[ThaWoj]

Cash the twins 1st inning.

I could be rich if i just did this every day and never made another bet.

Probably why they keep giving it to me for $250

[Keith Richard]

Well I have dropped my last 2 bets on these. Thank you DK for reducing my limit to peanuts (10) right at the best time.

[tbill1]

DK is thoughtful that way I went on a mini losing streak and they took away my promotion permanently.

[stevenash]

^
Promos are just that, promos.

[SBR Andy]

Alternating wins and losses with the Rockies so hopefully the trend continues tonight as the EV math once again points in their direction vs the Twins.

COL +195

[stevenash]

Alternating wins and losses with the Rockies so hopefully the trend continues tonight as the EV math once again points in their direction vs the Twins.

COL +195

Yeah, I gave the Rockies a long hard look.
Paddack can be smacked around, Blackmon at the top of the order is a righty killer.

I'll tail.

[ThaWoj]

Some great choices on the card. I believe I'm going for 10 straight. I haven't decided yet but so far I like 1)A's @ SD +190 2)Colorado 3)Jays even money at MIL 4) wSox and fedde at seattle at a big #

I really like the A's. Estes is the real deal. And I think they can hit Cease. Going to be a tough decision

[SBR Andy]

Some great choices on the card. I believe I'm going for 10 straight. I haven't decided yet but so far I like 1)A's @ SD +190 2)Colorado 3)Jays even money at MIL 4) wSox and fedde at seattle at a big #

I really like the A's. Estes is the real deal. And I think they can hit Cease. Going to be a tough decision

Crazy run, keep it going!

[Darkside Magick]

Oakland Athletics +190 vs San Diego Padres

[Keith Richard]

Colorado +205 for me

[ThaWoj]

I was going oakland up until 1 minute before the rockies game and decided to go unorthodox and switch from my 1st instinct.

So I'm riding with you guys on Colorado lets cash it early, need this one

[ThaWoj]

Looks like I should have stuck with my A's pick. Last few days have been horrible, lost so much. I'm pretty buried.

[SBR Andy]

Jumping off the Rockies train, on the Angels +136 vs the Dbacks tonight. Should be some runs.

[Keith Richard]

I'm on the Angels also. Beware 3 game losing streak for me.

[Darkside Magick]

Texas Rangers +136 vs Los Angeles Dodgers

[DonnieBrasco23]

Texas Rangers +136 vs Los Angeles Dodgers

You seem to always post/bet a lot of plus money games. Don’t get me wrong I like your strategy you’re like the exact opposite of poster JIBBBY (who we all know loses LONG TERM). In your betting career are you +EV throughout your journey ? If you could answer that with some kind of honesty that would be appreciated ?

[Darkside Magick]

You seem to always post/bet a lot of plus money games. Don’t get me wrong I like your strategy you’re like the exact opposite of poster JIBBBY (who we all know loses LONG TERM). In your betting career are you +EV throughout your journey ? If you could answer that with some kind of honesty that would be appreciated ?

Yes ..I'm a "+EV" Bettor...It took a long time to get there and maybe over 100 models and algorithms.

At the start...basically your 99.5% bettor..winning like 47% of bets..had some good streaks but for like first 8 years no long term profit

Started building more quantitative models as I was a quantitative trader in my regular job and after awhile started seeing patterns and results in + money and alternative lines after running 300.000 Monte Carlo Simulations

I win at 56% clip at avg odds of +162

[DonnieBrasco23]

Yes ..I'm a "+EV" Bettor...It took a long time to get there and maybe over 100 models and algorithms.

At the start...basically your 99.5% bettor..winning like 47% of bets..had some good streaks but for like first 8 years no long term profit

Started building more quantitative models as I was a quantitative trader in my regular job and after awhile started seeing patterns and results in + money and alternative lines after running 300.000 Monte Carlo Simulations

I win at 56% clip at avg odds of +162

Do you have any kind of chart that shows this ? I’ve hit nearly 58% at around +106 average price. This is the chart below. All these plays were posted and graded by someone else on a daily thread somewhere in forumville.

[Darkside Magick]

Do you have any kind of chart that shows this ? I’ve hit nearly 58% at around +106 average price. This is the chart below. All these plays were posted and graded by someone else on a daily thread somewhere in forumville.

I don't have a graph..most of my early plays are gone where the site that track my plays went out of business..I would have to get my clerk to put together some chart for plays running off the current edition of algorithm.

[DonnieBrasco23]

I don't have a graph..most of my early plays are gone where the site that track my plays went out of business..I would have to get my clerk to put together some chart for plays running off the current edition of algorithm.

With the proper bankroll and your 56% +162 average price we all could be multimillionaire’s.

[mjsuax13]

With the proper bankroll and your 56% +162 average price we all could be multimillionaire’s.

The problem with most of us is we can probably pick a few winners and even get to an ok win percentage. It’s about unit management. It’s having the discipline to not chase that rough week, loss, etc… buries me every single time.

[DonnieBrasco23]

The problem with most of us is we can probably pick a few winners and even get to an ok win percentage. It’s about unit management. It’s having the discipline to not chase that rough week, loss, etc… buries me every single time.

You’re exactly right I’m still an amateur with this shit as I dumped 1/3rd of my roll last week, still working with 80K though. Taking a much needed break for a while.

[stevenash]

I'm going to saddle up and ride again with Pivetta and the Red Sox at +120.
Pivetta's last start v. Atlanta was a masterpiece, has a very live arm to boot.

Boston +120

[DonnieBrasco23]

I'm going to saddle up and ride again with Pivetta and the Red Sox at +120.
Pivetta's last start v. Atlanta was a masterpiece, has a very live arm to boot.

Boston +120

I have them too in a fun pipe dream parlay with a micro investment. That play made the cut for me.

[SBR Andy]

Have dropped 3 in a row, gotta end the skid. Rockies sitting at +200 first game on the board is the ultimate temptation but I'm going to resist and take the Rangers in the night cap +160 vs the Dodgers. They got smacked 15-2 last night so hoping for some bounce back motivation.

[DonnieBrasco23]

Have dropped 3 in a row, gotta end the skid. Rockies sitting at +200 first game on the board is the ultimate temptation but I'm going to resist and take the Rangers in the night cap +160 vs the Dodgers. They got smacked 15-2 last night so hoping for some bounce back motivation.

I have the Rockies ML on the same parlay I mentioned earlier.

[SBR Andy]

I have the Rockies ML on the same parlay I mentioned earlier.

Classic Rockies teased ya scoring in the top of the 1st only to give up 5 in the bottom half lol

[DonnieBrasco23]

Classic Rockies teased ya scoring in the top of the 1st only to give up 5 in the bottom half lol

All good small bet, just having a little fun over here taking shots at the bookmaker.

[ThaWoj]

Well I'm busted up but if I can scrape $250 up I'm taking texas tonight. Buehler is a total hamburger. And Gray has been undervalued. These are his earned run totals in all his starts this year and IP. Its his 2nd appearance off the IL. Now granted the dodgers have a juggernaut lineup. But I'm banking on walker getting beat-up early, and I think I've hit this promo almost every time he pitched all at good prices.

Mar 31
4/3.2
Apr 6
0/3.2
Apr 11
1/5.0
Apr 16
1/6.0
Apr 20
0/1.2
Apr 24
1/4.2
Apr 30
1/8.0
May 5
2/7.0
May 10
1/6.0
May 15
0/6.1
Mat 21
2/5.0
Jun 8
0/2.1

So other than his 1st game gray has never given up more than 2 runs (earned or unearned)

[ThaWoj]

The one thing I dont like about this game is the total is only 7.5. I was looking at the white sox but I just dont know with their pitcher j. Cannon...he got smacked vs tampa as a starter but threw 3 shutout relief innings vs boston. Miller is one of seattles weaker arms imo. Worth a look maybe

[ThaWoj]

2 on nobody out in the 1st with beuhler struggling with command as expected and no runs. Terrible.

[mjsuax13]

Looks like I should have stuck with my A's pick. Last few days have been horrible, lost so much. I'm pretty buried.

How bad WOJ?

[Getch13]

Like the Nationals +130 today