Paper Chasing Aug 27

Paper Chaser · 08-26-09, 11:31 PM

Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Under 8.5 -105 Pinnacle)

I expect this game to be low scoring especially with Happ on the mound. The struggling Pirates offence is hitting .231 against lefties over their past 10 games, while Happ has an era of 1.72 on the road this season. In 8 of his 9 starts on the road the under has hit and the total average score of those games is 6.90. In Happs only start against Pittsburgh, earlier this season he allowed 1 run over 7 innings pitched. While Charlie Morton is simply outmatched in this game, he has pitched well at home with an era of 3.07 and a total average score of 6.80 in 5 starts. Some other interesting notes is the under is 7-1 in the Phillies last 8 road games with a total of 7-8.5. As well, the under is 23-8-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 33 games at home vs. a left handed pitcher.

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox (Boston -115, -1.5 175 Cris)

Well I have to go with the Red Soxs to finish off a 4 game sweep over the struggling White Sox. Danks has been pitching very well lately, however he will be facing a hot Boston offence that is hitting .303 against lefties over their past 10 games. As well, in Danks 3 career starts against Boston, the Red Sox have won 5-1, 10-1, and 11-2. Tazawa will be on the hill for Boston and in his 2 starts at home has only allowed 1 run over 11 innings pitched. These 2 games were against Detroit and the Yankees, both teams have explosive offences. Since, the White Sox have never seen Tazawa before the advantage usually goes to the pitcher and I think this will be the case Thursday.

Paper Chaser · 08-26-09, 11:31 PM

Oakland A’s @ LA Angels (LAA -170 Pinnacle)

This is a game I think you will need to get early for a price around -170 before it jumps in favor of the Angels. Santana will be pitching for the Angels and is starting to get back into form with a 3.33 era in the month of August and has won his last 5 outings. Although Santana has been brutal at home this year for some reason with a 9.00 era things should turn around against the A’s. This is a team he has dominated in his short career with a 6-1 record, a 1.26 era and an opponent’s batting average of .190 over 10 games. Cahill will be on the mound and has pitched well his last 3 starts with an era of 3.15. But I expect him to revert back to his season era (4.86) especially against the high power Angels offence.

dodger33 · 08-27-09, 01:10 AM

Welcome. Good write ups paper chaser. I love the Angel game. They are a big momentum team, coming off tonight victory they will take it to oakland who couldn't even take a game from seattle, scoring 6 runs in 3 games. santana is throwing a lot harder then he was when he was getting lit up earlier this year. he will shut their offense down. i'd say its safe to go with the rl here, but -170 is a gift. that could end up closer to -200.

Paper Chaser · 08-27-09, 11:58 AM

Thanks Dodger

You make some very good points

LAA line is close to -200 now at most places. The rl is probably a good play in this game best price I see right now is +110 at matchbook.