New jm 3.0

keel44 · 08-04-09, 09:35 AM

such as?

dbartinbwgc · 08-04-09, 12:51 PM

update

V3.0 System UPDATE:
The update here is designed to allow you even more betting opportunities during the course of the baseball season by taking advantage of the unofficial plays that fall outside of the acceptable level of RPI difference between the two teams.
The addition to this new v3.0 system is that you want to make a wager for the team that previously did the sweep (NOT the team that was swept previously!) if the following 2 criteria are met:
1. The team that they swept previously came back and beat them on the very first game of theirrematch series.
2. They have an RPI of at least .025 or higher than their opponent.
If your bet loses, you would go on and make a [B] bet for the same team the next day. Most of the v3.0 bets will involve betting on a 2-game series. However, In some rare cases you can also make a [C] bet if both your [A] and [B] bet lose, and the series rematch is a 4-game series allowing you an extra final game to make a [C] wager

jcygts6 · 08-04-09, 01:13 PM

any examples? I dont understand

peterpan19 · 08-04-09, 01:25 PM

So lets say the Marlins loose tonight to the Nats then they would be a play on wednesday, right ?

Nickelicious · 08-04-09, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by jcygts6

any examples? I dont understand

Take tonight for example. A textbook case for a 3.0 bet.

If Washington beats Florida tonight, they will win the unofficial play. The 3.0 system then says you can bet on Florida in a 2-game chase for the remaining series, because their RPI is at least .025 higher than Washington's.

I expect this system will produce a very good track record. It is counting on good teams to not get swept by bad teams that the good team has swept in the past.

It will also be hard to backtest because I don't know of anyone that keeps a daily running database of ESPN's baseball RPI.

dbartinbwgc · 08-04-09, 01:29 PM

example

Here’s an example of the v3.0 system in action:
During the 2008 MLB baseball season, the Boston Red Sox played the Kansas City
Royals from May 19th to May 22nd and swept them in the entire series.
On August 4th, Boston played Kansas City again in a 3-game series. At this time during the season, Boston's RPI was at least .025 higher than Kansas City, making the series fall outside of the original v1.0 system's betting criteria for Kansas City. However, Kansas City ended up winning the first game of the series on August 4th.
Since Boston was the team that swept Kansas City previously, and their RPI is at least .025 higher than Kansas City, the fact that Kansas City came back and won the first game vs. Boston make the series eligible for play under the v3.0 MLB system.
Therefore, on August 5th, you would put down an [A] bet for Boston to beat Kansas City. Boston ended up winning the game. At this point you've won the betting series, and there's no need to make any more wagers for either team.
IF Boston had lost to Kansas City again on August 5th, then you would need to place a [B] bet for Boston again on August 6th when they play Kansas City in the final game.
There are no possible [C] bets in this series.

keel44 · 08-04-09, 02:13 PM

Sounds like a profitable technique.

brandon m · 08-04-09, 02:47 PM

Yeah I think alot of people have been doing that here, going the other way on unofficial chases. I don't know for sure but I think it is pretty rare to sweep a team and then get sweeped by that same team the very next series.

cs11787 · 08-04-09, 03:10 PM

Ya im pretty sure hes just taking our ideas here in this forum and promoting them as new versions and making bank off of them. Ridiculous. Hey JM why dont you give all of us here that have been doing that some of that profit buddy???

Stanley77 · 08-04-09, 03:10 PM

I tried posting the link here but the mods edited it. If you want the system you can PM me.

cs11787 · 08-04-09, 03:21 PM

So what about vice versa? Like for instance I took Chicago last night. Should I be betting Cinci these next two games???

Nickelicious · 08-04-09, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by cs11787

So what about vice versa? Like for instance I took Chicago last night. Should I be betting Cinci these next two games???

I made the same bet yesterday and I have Cincy tonight, too, but no, it is not a V3.0 system play. If Cincinatti has won yesterday, then Chicago would have been the system play tonight. But just barely, because the RPI difference between the two teams is currently .030.

Refer to the dbart example above for a clear explanation of what a V3.0 play would be. It has to match that criteria.

cs11787 · 08-04-09, 04:39 PM

The line is finally moving towards the Cubs.

Syrax · 08-04-09, 08:50 PM

If Florida loose today, then its an A bet under the new 3.0, they are +1.5 -177 at pinny rite now.