Pico's MLB Overs Strategy (testing thread)

[pico]

just thought about it last night. sounds pretty interesting, so I am going to test it out. I am going to post all the calc and the results in this thread. i'll also make adjustments as we go along.

strategy is pretty simple, i am just going to bet the over. i'll pick teams that are cold at bats last couple of games so the game total should be lower.

seems pretty flawed, but should be fun nevertheless.

[pico]

yesterday games: 15 games, 7 under, 8 over. pretty even i say

for those under games, under margin:

ari-met -1
was-pit -0.5
kc-tam -3.5
hou-stl -6
mil-sdg -1.5
cub-fla -3
sea-tex -3.5

highlighted top 3 unders

[pico]

3 overs that i am interested are:

kc-tam 8
sfo-hou 8
tex-oak 8.5

stl and sea not playing

[pico]

under streaks (either mean good pitching or suck at bats)

kc-2
tam-4

was-1
pit-1

bal-0
det-0

ari-1
met-1

chi-1
reds-0

sfo-0
hou-3

tex-1
oak-0

atl-0
sdg-2

mil-2
lad-0

[pico]

tam-4 and hou-3 seems to have the longest under streaks.

these are the two over i am gonna bet.

kc-tam 8
sfo-hou 8

[pico]

since i am doing this with pinnace, i can sell 1 run to make them plus money.

Straight Bet

Selection 1: MLB, Baseball
San Francisco Giants/Houston Astros 3-August-2009 5:05 PM PST
Total Runs OVER 9 for Game +141
M. Cain must start M. Hampton must start

Selection 2: MLB, Baseball
Kansas City Royals/Tampa Bay Rays 3-August-2009 9:05 AM PST
Total Runs OVER 9 for Game +163
Z. Greinke must start S. Kazmir must start

[pico]

record: 0-0 +0

gl luck

[pico]

royals game went over

sfo-hou game is about to start

[pico]

record: 1-1 +0.63

[pico]

cubs-cin -2.5

sfo-hou -1

atl-sdg -1

tex-oak -3

[pico]

unders streaks

cubs-2
cin -1

sfo -1
hou -4

atl -1
sdg -3

tex -2
oak -1

[pico]

9 games. 4 under 5 over.

gonna do the picks later

[pico]

Straight Bet

Selection 1: MLB, Baseball
San Francisco Giants/Houston Astros 4-August-2009 5:05 PM PST
Total Runs OVER 10 for Game +181
J. Sanchez must start F. Paulino must start

Selection 2: MLB, Baseball
Atlanta Braves/San Diego Padres 4-August-2009 7:05 PM PST
Total Runs OVER 8 for Game +163
J. Vazquez must start T. Stauffer must start

[pico]

record: 1-1 +0.63

2 overs for tomorrow, selling 1 run each. gl

[pico]

record 1-2 -0.37

padres pending

[pico]

padres is an over.

record 2-2 +1.26

[pico]

under margin for today

ari-pit -2.5

bos-tam -2

tex-oak -2.5

[pico]

15 games, 3 under, 12 over or push (both of my picks would've gone over if i hadn't sold a run...oh well)

[pico]

ari-1
pit-1

bos-1
tam-1

tax-3
oak-2

cubs -2
cin -1

[pico]

Straight Bet

Selection 1: MLB, Baseball
Arizona D-Backs/Pittsburgh Pirates 5-August-2009 4:05 PM PST
Total Runs OVER 9 for Game +138
D. Davis must start R. Ohlendorf must start

Selection 2: MLB, Baseball
Texas Rangers/Oakland Athletics 5-August-2009 7:05 PM PST
Total Runs OVER 10 for Game +153
V Padilla must start C. REINEKE must start

[pico]

2 for tomorrow. selling 1 run each

gl

record 2-2 +1.26

[pico]

pirates stayed under. rangers tied 5-5 now, so it is a guranteed over at this point

1-1 in the money for the day

record 3-3 +1.79

[pico]

15 games 6 unders 3 push, 6 over --perfect split day for totals

ari-pit -1
col-phi -2
bal-det -3
cub-cin -4.5
laa-cws -1
mil-los -3.5

[Maddhatter]

LOL interesting way to pick the overs. I like that its always positive $$. I'm interested in seeing the results over time.

[pico]

LOL interesting way to pick the overs. I like that its always positive $$. I'm interested in seeing the results over time.

now you jinxed it

[pico]

ari-2
pit-2

col-1
phi-1

bal-1
det-1

laa-1
cwox-1

atl-0
lad-1

[pico]

Straight Bet

Selection 1: MLB, Baseball
Arizona D-Backs/Pittsburgh Pirates 6-August-2009 4:05 PM PST
Total Runs OVER 9 for Game +155
M. Scherzer must start K. Hart must start

Selection 2: MLB, Baseball
Baltimore Orioles/Detroit Tigers 6-August-2009 10:05 AM PST
Total Runs OVER 10.5 for Game +145
D. Hernandez must start R. Porcello must start

[pico]

2 for tomorrow. selling 1 run each

record 3-3 +1.79

gl

[pico]

det game scored 10 runs...i kinda screwed my self again selling that one run.
pirates game is way over now.

1-1 for the day. in the money again.

record 4-4 +2.34

[pico]

11 games 2 unders 9 overs....some how i manage to go 1-1 with overs

min-cle -6
col-phi -4.5

[pico]

fla-0
phi-2

mil-1
hou-0

cle-1
cwox-0

chi-3
col-2

cin-2
sfo-0

[pico]

Straight Bet

Selection 1: MLB, Baseball
Chicago Cubs/Colorado Rockies 7-August-2009 6:10 PM PST
Total Runs OVER 10 for Game +161
C. Zambrano must start U. Jimenez must start

Selection 2: MLB, Baseball
Cincinnati Reds/San Francisco Giants 7-August-2009 7:15 PM PST
Total Runs OVER 8 for Game +157
H. Bailey must start T. Lincecum must start

[pico]

2 overs with selling 1 run each

record 4-4 +2.34

gl

[pico]

1-1 again

record 5-5 +2.91

[pico]

^^^cubs pushed, so it was actually 1-0-1 for yesterday

record 5-4-1 +3.91