MLB - Monday, 8/5/19

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Sides Monday

Brewers -131 (5 Dimes)
Twins +100 (5 Dimes)
Phillies -103 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 234-260-13, -20.77


Totals Coming


Record at All-Star Break: 183-208-10, -21.46

[LT Profits]

Actually no totals yet, just the 3 Sides so far.

[jjgold]

Start pounding chalk quickest way to reduce red figure

[LT Profits]

Start pounding chalk quickest way to reduce red figure

You know me, it is just not in my DNA to lay more than -150 on anything so that is never going to happen.

I am not changing my approach at all, the reason there have been fewer dog picks lately is because fewer have presented as plays. And that is probably a good thing because it means the model is probably picking up on bigger imbalance between teams this year. Sure it took a while, but I have to live with that because the model adjusts gradually and does not overreact to the short term. That is much more preferential to me than putting more weight on recency and creating extreme variance between model lines and actual lines.

[Brock Landers]

Never get tired of losing

[dawg58kahn]

if you end at -20 units, is this your worst mlb season ever?

[snider]

Lay the 1.5 . Square is the new sharp .

[snider]

They took sia’s runlines off sbrodds. Sia even changed their lines to be above and below the high and low of sharper books. The first month of the season the underdog winners were highlighted in blue .

[jjgold]

LT you have to change

We are ordering you, got it from Genie

[LT Profits]

Never get tired of losing

Still +29.79 over all 6 major sports over the past year

[LT Profits]

if you end at -20 units, is this your worst mlb season ever?

Worst monitored at SBR, probably had worse back in my youth.

[Sam Odom]

LT

haters gonna hate

[LT Profits]

Lay the 1.5 . Square is the new sharp .

I am not one to casually lay -1.5 on big faves, there are times when model shows edge on -1.5 but it is rare. Probably because vig on RLs is higher than MLs, making finding value on them harder.

[LT Profits]

LT you have to change

We are ordering you, got it from Genie

Not going to happen as long as I am up overall. Want to keep using same approach for all sports.

[snider]

I am not one to casually lay -1.5 on big faves, there are times when model shows edge on -1.5 but it is rare. Probably because vig on RLs is higher than MLs, making finding value on them harder.

Not when it’s Schherzer vs baltomore

[snider]

I mean not suggesting getting that square. But I hear yo on value and RL’s .

[pavyracer]

LT sounds like the Giants fans. But you know Eli won Superbowls 10-12 years ago. Yeah he did but right now his record sucks.

[LT Profits]

Not when it’s Schherzer vs baltomore

Matters when line is -1.5 -300

[LT Profits]

LT sounds like the Giants fans. But you know Eli won Superbowls 10-12 years ago. Yeah he did but right now his record sucks.

That does not correlate to my situation at all. I do not bet underdogs because underdogs are winning overall or favorites because favorites are winning overall, those records are only peripheral factors as I look at each game individually. I strictly look for value comparing model lines with actual lines, and since I usually find more value on dogs, I usually lose when favorites win at a high rate. That has always been the case and I have still usually come out on top, so I just have to ride the chalk wave out until dogs start barking again.

But also take note of what I said in Post 4 about fewer dogs being plays lately.

[NBAtony]

Under 8.5 on nats game on the radar at all?

[KVB]

Start pounding chalk quickest way to reduce red figure

For fuksake Gold show a little patience.

The markets aren't so far out of whack that bettors should just jump ship.

It's not unlike the stock market ocean analogy. When there are sharks circling the boat and things seem bad, it's probably not a good time to jump in the water.

Stay the course LT, you've been here before.

[KVB]

Never get tired of losing

So you're just one of those handful of attention whores who say stuff like this?

Thought you were a little more real than that, it's a bit disappointing...though not very disappointing.

This does put you in that group of the weakest form of posters.

Thought you were a stronger poster than that, but strangely you don't show it.

Maybe you'll try again, maybe not, my care goes as far as this post and this post alone.

[unde0087]

Never get tired of losing

Coming from you the only one who is worse than you at handicapping is Seaweed only he isnt as big of a scumbag as yourself.

[BigdaddyQH]

KVB, you are the biggest Chicken S**t and lying fraud in here. Just look at last night. You LOSE on the Cubs game but claim you broke even by playing a live wager. Of course you do not mention what the wager was and past posted it. You are a F**king LIAR. I am going to kick your worthless arse during the football season. Be thankful if it is not in person, you gutless wimp.

[KVB]

Just stop BigDaddy, nobody, and I mean nobody, gives a shit what you write, you blew so many chances. Everyone knows you never, ever, tell a single bit of truth.

I know you follow me around, but I don't even read what you write, it's always a waste. You want me to read your garbage then man up and prove you are worth time in the thread you keep running from, try to gain back some integrity.

It's probably best you just stop though, so you don't bury yourself again.

The burials got so bad we even had to agree to ignore you. How quickly you forget.

[Pick'nParlays]

Wow well said

[LT Profits]

Under 8.5 on nats game on the radar at all?

I actually lean other way at 9.3

[44 Mag]

KVB, you are the biggest Chicken S**t and lying fraud in here. Just look at last night. You LOSE on the Cubs game but claim you broke even by playing a live wager. Of course you do not mention what the wager was and past posted it. You are a F**king LIAR. I am going to kick your worthless arse during the football season. Be thankful if it is not in person, you gutless wimp.

Just stop BigDaddy, nobody, and I mean nobody, gives a shit what you write, you blew so many chances. Everyone knows you never, ever, tell a single bit of truth.

I know you follow me around, but I don't even read what you write, it's always a waste. You want me to read your garbage then man up and prove you are worth time in the thread you keep running from, try to gain back some integrity.

It's probably best you just stop though, so you don't bury yourself again.

The burials got so bad we even had to agree to ignore you. How quickly you forget.

Isn't this LT's Thread???? Take this to the Saloon.

[stake1]

Coming from you the only one who is worse than you at handicapping is Seaweed only he isnt as big of a scumbag as yourself.

Plus where are the picks threads from Truckin’ located?

I can’t seem to find a thread of Landers’ where he updates his record and picks.

Yet he loves to repeatedly attack Profits’ picks. Low class and a shitty look.

[sosawestbrook]

good luck LT

[KVB]

Isn't this LT's Thread???? Take this to the Saloon.

You'll be ok Mag, don't worry.

Everything will be fine.



Good Luck LT, those moneylines will regress.

[LT Profits]

1 Last MLB Addition

4 MLB Plays Monday

Brewers -131 (5 Dimes)
White Sox / Tigers UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Twins +100 (5 Dimes)
Phillies -103 (5 Dimes)