FF Bases with Flabrah5

sosawestbrook · 06-14-19, 06:08 PM

Bucs have actually done a nice job putting up runs early but have often been drowned out of games by their own pitcher's inability to steer clear of disastrous innings. They got 5 solid OF's & I wouldn't say they are particularly stronger or weaker with any one of them in or out of the lineup. Richards has been money for Fish but Brault has also been pretty good in his own right if you dismiss his stats as a reliever and focus on his last 4 or so starting appearances.

good luck to you bro. I got Bucs full game and the under here. Hopefully we both walk out with cash tickets

flabrah5 · 06-14-19, 07:42 PM

Originally posted by sosawestbrook

Bucs have actually done a nice job putting up runs early but have often been drowned out of games by their own pitcher's inability to steer clear of disastrous innings. They got 5 solid OF's & I wouldn't say they are particularly stronger or weaker with any one of them in or out of the lineup. Richards has been money for Fish but Brault has also been pretty good in his own right if you dismiss his stats as a reliever and focus on his last 4 or so starting appearances.

good luck to you bro. I got Bucs full game and the under here. Hopefully we both walk out with cash tickets

Nice play. Bad showing. Hits all over Brault with 7 thru 4, but Richards couldn't hang on after that error ridden 4th inning.

Miami -120 FF ML (L)

Overall:
0-0-1

flabrah5 · 06-16-19, 11:11 AM

Didn't have a chance look into the games yesterday and boy what a profitable slate it turned out to be. Next up is a double play (2 units) on the Angels @ Rays game.

Rays FF ML -129

Finally have a right handed pitching matchup for the Rays in this series. They're on the verge of the FF sweep (not that it's anywhere similar to a true sweep, but for what's it's worth were down last 3 games after 5).

Beeks takes the mound in a spot I lean heavily toward with his performances in June (2 GS, 8.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.84 WHIP). Couple that with a heavily lowered Day Game ERA of 1.05 and I smile.

Rays lineup is in full force today with Meadows, Pham, Lowe, Choi, Diaz, Kiermier. Wendle and Zunino provide some quality ABs in the 8/9 spots as well.

Griffin Canning has been impressive on his rookie debut, but has steadily declined the last few outings. He sports a June ERA of 5.25 over 12 IP and a 1.08 WHIP which seems low compared to that high ERA, but hes HR prone with a below average 1.4 HR/9.

With the contact I expect Rays to produce on their first of four Angels game vs a righty, and the reverse June performances of Beeks / Canning, we find ourselves on the 2 unit FF ML play at a generous -129.

BOL to all.

flabrah5 · 06-16-19, 02:14 PM

Man, what a show. Everything happened to prevent that from winning. Error and two walks to start the T1 bases loaded no outs. Angels get 1 unearned. Rays leadoff triple B3, flyout double play. Take a 3-1 lead, another couple walks and a routine double play missed to tie it 3-3. Foul pop up hits roof for Angels to keep swinging T5 with guy on 3rd (never seen that), but finally get him out to guarantee a push. Then a solo shot brings us across the finish line.

Rays FF ML -121 (dropped after writing up my post from -129)

WIN

Overall:
1-0-1 (+0.80 units)

Picks to come..

flabrah5 · 06-16-19, 02:51 PM

4:05pm EST Brewers @ Giants

Brewers FF ML -155 (3.10 units to win 2 units)

Chase Anderson has been solid this year putting him in a position to get wins each outing. June has been a bit of a slump, but look for him to rebound at San Fran where he sports a 2-0 record with a 2.50 ERA in three starts at Oracle Park in San Francisco.

The play is mostly driven but Smardzija's HR prone antics (1.5 HR/9) and a powerful Brewers lineup with strong H2H stats vs the righty.

Lineup Order & H2H vs Smardzija:

1. Gamel - N/A
2. Yelich - 6-16, .375, 1 HRs, 1.125 OPS
3. Braun - 11-26, .423, 3 HRs, 1.308 OPS
4. Moustakas - 4-12, .333, 2 HRs, 1.271 OPS
5. Grandal - 4-8, .500, 0 HRs, 1.100 OPS
6. Thames - 1-6, .167, 0 HRs, .500 OPS
7. Shaw - 0-6, .000, 0 HRs, .000 OPS
8. Arcia - N/A
9 Anderson - N/A

One thing to note in Anderson's weakness is Right handed batters (.321 avg). I find this is mitigated by SF putting out 5 Lefties which Anderson owns at a .171 average. Put the pitcher in there and you find 6 batters who hopefully struggle to get on base.

BOL to all

flabrah5 · 06-16-19, 05:15 PM

And we've rebounded well since the Marlins. Another masterful crushing of the Brewers lineup and Giants damn lucky to only be down 4-3.

Brewers FF ML -155

WIN

Overall:
2-0-1 (+2.8 units)

flabrah5 · 06-16-19, 09:31 PM

Just curious if this is something people will actually find useful? Doesn't have to be off the bat, but eventually if it rolls well. Reason I ask is I've never done a thread and usually come here for entertainment, but wanted to share my FFs as I do pride myself in a farely higher than usual winning %. I only do FFs and cap my system accordingly. If I do a FG, it's always an over bet It's gotten increasingly better over the years to the point where in 2019 it became my profession as a primary source of income.

Takes a while for write ups and didn't want to waste the time if people didn't really intend to possibly get value out of this.

Hope everyone had a good week and tomorrow we collect!

sosawestbrook · 06-16-19, 09:46 PM

keep going bro great work

always love to read people's thoughts behind the action

flabrah5 · 06-17-19, 06:03 PM

Hey Guys, sorry long day and I wasnt able to come in and write out my 7pm play(s). Have to trust me on the logic, but they are as follows:

Blue Jays FF ML +155 (1 unit to win 1.55 units)
Braves FF ML -141 (2.82 to win 2 units)
Marlins / Cards FF o4.5 (1.08 units to win 1 unit)
Astros FF ML +115 (2 units to win 2.3 units)

BOL to all

flabrah5 · 06-17-19, 06:06 PM

Adding first parlay:

2 Teamer:
Braves FF ML
Astros FF ML

1 unit to win 2.64 units

flabrah5 · 06-17-19, 06:33 PM

Not much to think about here, but adding a 3 unit play for the value on:

Texas FF ML +113 (3 units to win 3.39 units)

Indians sport one of the most flat offenses we've seen this year and Lynn has been getting a lot of run support at home in the hitter-friendly Rangers park. He is 4-0 at home and 2-0 (2 appearances) vs the Indians in his career, sporting a 0.75 ERA.

Bad offense + great home/h2h pitcher + home run support = large play on the home team.

BOL to all

flabrah5 · 06-17-19, 09:02 PM

Blue Jays FF ML +155 (1 unit to win 1.55 units)
Braves FF ML -141 (2.82 to win 2 units)
Marlins / Cards FF o4.5 (1.08 units to win 1 unit)
Astros FF ML +115 (2 units to win 2.3 units)
Texas FF ML +113 (3 units to win 3.39 units)
Parlay - Braves / Astros (1 unit to win 2.64)

L - 1 unit
W + 2 units
L -1.08 units
L - 2 units
W + 3.39 units
L - 1 unit

Wish Astros didn't blank on bases loaded 1 out and choke in B5. Brutal turn but still positive overall (+0.39 units)

Overall:
4-0-5 (+3.19 units)

flabrah5 · 06-18-19, 07:51 PM

Was able to barely get it in, but forgot I had this thread!

I have Marlins FF ML + 200 @ Cards (1 unit to win 2 units)

Yamamoto has pitched 1 MLB game. It was vs the Cards. Beautiful pitch control in a 7 IP scoreless appearance. Cards offense has been on a slump. At this price Im taking a play. Live bet FF is also +200, so go for it if you are reading this.

BOL to all

flabrah5 · 06-18-19, 08:38 PM

Nice solo shot by Castro. If people want me to share the card, I will, just please let me know how to post a screenshot.

Marlins FF ML +200

W + 2 units

Overall:
5-0-5 (+5.19 units)

flabrah5 · 06-18-19, 09:10 PM

Made a separate thread for this hoping to get more attention on the single play because we are going to Max Bet a full-game run line with Dodgers -1.5 @ -140. Write up below.

Dodgers FULL GAME -1.5 -140 (7 units to win 5 units)

Kershaw is 22-11 lifetime vs San Fran which seems super short of wins considering he sports at 1.72 ERA over 330.3 innings pitched vs the Giants.

+ Dodgers average 5.1 runs per game (T10th) and give up 3.6 runs per game (2nd)
+ Giants average 3.8 runs per game (28th) and give up 5.0 runs per game (19th)
+ Dodgers are 2nd with a team ERA of 3.23 and tied 1st with a team WHIP of 1.08
+ Giants are tied 15th a team ERA of 4.50 and tied 14th with a team WHIP of 1.33

Anderson splits lean towards Righties. He has a .281 average vs Lefties and has to get through Pederson, Verdugo, Bellinger, Muncy, Beaty, and Kershaw who is a hitting pitcher.

At home, coming off a low scoring loss 3-2, Ace on the mound, vs a rookie pitcher who stuggles vs Lefties and has to get through 6 of them that sport tremendous power = a max play lean IMO.

Dodgers -1.5 @ -140 (went from -134 >> 132 >> freezing on me >> -140 which I locked

I know each game is separate, but I do like the low scoring loss last night. Just for averages sake, Dodgers score 8 tonight to bring their run average over the last two games to 5 which they are T10th in the MLB.

flabrah5 · 06-18-19, 11:39 PM

Alright, I'm gonna call this a W. If Kikes grand slam doesn't keep this 9-0 lead in tact with 2 innings to go, oh well. Bring it on jinx man.

Dodgers FULL GAME RL -1.5 (7 units to win 5 units)

W + 5 units

Overall:
6-0-5 (+10.19 units)

flabrah5 · 06-19-19, 11:11 AM

Yankees FF ML +126 (3 units to win 3.78 units)

Snell been on the decline as of late. Struggles in NY during the day. Snell is 3-5 with a 3.97 ERA in 13 career starts against the Yankees. He is 1-4 with a 4.97 ERA in nine starts in NY.

On the other hand we have CC on the mound for NY. Has been having a rough June but I look for that to rebound today at home during the day where he sports both as favorable splits. CC played TB twice this year - at home going 6 IPs on 1 run ball and @ TB going 5 innings on 2 run ball. It is important to note, all 3 ERs he's given up to Tampa have been solo shot homers. Very odd, but I like it.

EDIT - Forgot to add how TB struggles vs lefties. Been a consistent trend I've noticed and have decided fading TB vs a Lefty has proven to be profitable (i.e. Angels series first 3 games covered FF at huge dogs).

Also for fun and games, I like two other picks, but not nearly as much for a large solo play. Parlay as follows:

Yankees FF ML
Astros FF ML
Phillies GAME 1 FF ML

0.5 units to win 3.6 units

BOL to all

Hman · 06-19-19, 11:12 AM

GL today

flabrah5 · 06-19-19, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by Hman

GL today

Thank you, Sir. You as well!

flabrah5 · 06-19-19, 01:56 PM

Exactly what I wanted to see. Snell blows up, CC carves em up. 6 IPs (almost scoreless 2 out RBI in the T5) by the man. He owns TB and they just cant hit on Lefties.

Parlay didnt turn out too well. Phillies 1st inning solo shot and skunked since. Astros also now 20 scoreless IPs in the FF over last 4 games. Insane. Wont touch them again until they are back in Houston, but they did take the lead in the 6th. For FFs sake, I will wait for Houston, though.

Yankees FF ML +126 (3 units to win 3.78 units)
Parlay (0.5 units to win 3.6 units)

W + 3.78
L - 0.5

Overall:
Singles: 7-0-4 (+14.97 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-1.5 units)
Net: +13.47 units

Play coming on next post...

flabrah5 · 06-19-19, 02:05 PM

Brewers FF ML -120 (2.40 units to win 2 units)

Davies in a very impressive 7-1 on the season. He pitches well and gets run support. Couple that with a favorable Away split sporting a 2.25 ERA / 1.23 WHIP and we are on his side.

On the opposite, we have Strahm at home. The guy has good stuff, but struggles with a measly Home split of a 5.60 ERA / 1.13 WHIP. What's most appealing is his struggles over 2 games in June sporting a massive 15.26 ERA / 2.35 WHIP giving up 13 runs on 14 hits / 4 BBS in 7.2 IPs (7 of which are to Miami at home and 6 to Colorado at Coors). You just cant back the guy in this form, especially at Home. Lefties also love him as he has a .383 average vs them. Yes Brewers only have two in the lineup, but one of them is named Christian Yelich so good luck because Strahm will need it.

Davies overall ERA at 2.60, favorable on the Road, gets run support, facing a pitcher who has struggled more than any other pitcher in June, hates to be on the mound in front of his home crowd, and has to face one of - if not the most - dangerous Lefty (Yes, Id take Yelich over Bellinger) = a recipe for success on a generous -120 FF line.

BOL to all

EDIT - Line has moved to -109, upping to 3 units play - 3.27 units to win 3 units

flabrah5 · 06-19-19, 02:35 PM

Adding:

Brewers FF -0.5 +130 (2 units to win 2.6 units

Plays:
Brewers FF ML -109 (3.27 units to win 3 units)
Brewers FF -0.5 +130 (2 units to win 2.6 units)

Big play, lets get a big lead going into tonight's games. Some great games on the slate
BOL to all

jtoler · 06-19-19, 03:19 PM

davies giving up hits left and right doesnt matter if the hitter is batting in the .100's how is he 7-1

jtoler · 06-19-19, 03:23 PM

and now almost gave up a 3 run homer weirdest non hr Ive ever seen went over the wall but hits crease in top of wall and bounces back in

jtoler · 06-19-19, 03:58 PM

this guy has given up 9 hits and they still have him out there my gosh

flabrah5 · 06-19-19, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by jtoler

this guy has given up 9 hits and they still have him out there my gosh

So mad at this. 4 runs and can't even win let alone push the ML. Davies shouldnt have been out there after they tied it 3-3. That was brutal for someone who hasn't given up 3+ runs in 13 out of 14 games this year. What a crap loss with 4 runs behind him in 5.

Mil FF ML
Mil FF -0.5

L - 3.27 units
L - 2 units

Overall:
Singles: 7-0-6 (+9.70 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-1.5 units)
Net: +8.20 units

sosawestbrook · 06-19-19, 05:05 PM

great work

flabrah5 · 06-19-19, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by sosawestbrook

great work

Thanks man. I guess the big loss still had me with 4 runs of support to win or tie. Cookie doesn't always crumble the way you need it to though. Brewers was a solid play all around, leading 7-5 now.

BOL to you

flabrah5 · 06-19-19, 05:27 PM

Royals FF ML +110 (3 units to win 3.3 units)

Keller has been absurd as of late. KC bats have also been out there for a show. Keller has made three straight quality starts, giving up just five runs over his past 22 innings (2.04 ERA). He also sports a 0.93 ERA over 2 games vs Mariners. Parlay that with his recent form and confidence, and I expect him to limit them in the FF.

Gonzales has been his normal self. He does have a win over KC this year, but sports a lifetime 5.06 ERA in 4 starts. The one game he won he gave up 6 hits, 2 BBs, and 3 runs in 6 IPs.

Keller's H2H, recent form, KC bats waking up gives me the confidence for a 3 unit play at a nice +110 ML.

BOL to all

flabrah5 · 06-19-19, 05:56 PM

Well Keller clearly didn't get my note. Single, walk, homer. Looks toast. Taking the night off fells, but might be making a play on Twins FF ML.

BOL to all