As you may have noticed, the forum was offline for a period. We identified a security incident to Sportsbook Review Forum and took the site offline as a containment step while we investigated.
We wanted to make sure the system and site were restored and secured before bringing things back online and you will see that we are requiring all forum users to reset their password as a precautionary step.
If you have any questions, our moderators are around and happy to help where they can.
It's refreshing not seeing the Marlins on this list. High school teams would beat them, respectfully.
Comment
jimmycage
SBR High Roller
01-01-18
124
#3
the marlins have multiple wins over the astros, phillies, braves, cardinals, rays and some good pitchers.
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#4
Originally posted by jimmycage
the marlins have multiple wins over the astros, phillies, braves, cardinals, rays and some good pitchers.
Right but they have lost every time I had them, including last night.
Good news is I split the game as I also had the Under. Bad news is it was my only winner last night (1-4).
Comment
funnyb25
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
07-09-09
39663
#5
BOL today LT
Comment
Big Bear
SBR Aristocracy
11-01-11
43253
#6
How confident are we LT?
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#7
Originally posted by Big Bear
How confident are we LT?
I am all about the numbers and do not get emotional, so confidence level is always the same. I expect to finish + units at the end of the season while accepting there will be some bumpy roads along the way.
So we thinking archer has a good game for the buccos?
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#12
Originally posted by Big Bear
So we thinking archer has a good game for the buccos?
I am high on both starters, both better than 15% above average with Greinke about 3% better. But everything shakes out to DBacks 55% (-122) so price is right on Buccos.
Comment
lakerboy
SBR Aristocracy
04-02-09
94704
#13
Originally posted by LT Profits
Right but they have lost every time I had them, including last night.
Good news is I split the game as I also had the Under. Bad news is it was my only winner last night (1-4).
I stopped taking the Marlins. I had the same problem
Comment
sosawestbrook
SBR MVP
12-10-16
3135
#14
Originally posted by LT Profits
I am high on both starters, both better than 15% above average with Greinke about 3% better. But everything shakes out to DBacks 55% (-122) so price is right on Buccos.
Why so high on Archer? In my eyes he’s been an average pitcher. Unless you believe he still has some of that 2013-2015 stuff in the tank. He did look good in his first 3 starts though. Until LA tagged em for 6
Comment
Big Bear
SBR Aristocracy
11-01-11
43253
#15
Originally posted by sosawestbrook
Why so high on Archer? In my eyes he’s been an average pitcher. Unless you believe he still has some of that 2013-2015 stuff in the tank. He did look good in his first 3 starts though. Until LA tagged em for 6
Yeah that’s what I was thinking
I feel like his stuff is not what it once was
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#16
Originally posted by sosawestbrook
Why so high on Archer? In my eyes he’s been an average pitcher. Unless you believe he still has some of that 2013-2015 stuff in the tank. He did look good in his first 3 starts though. Until LA tagged em for 6
Once he cuts his walks down, he should return to his normal level. He has never walked more that 3.00/9 in any season, this year so far he is at 4.00, that most likely will not continue as he builds his innings back up. He is still getting his strikeouts, which is a good sign, and his normal level is a career 3.48 xFIP.
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#17
Originally posted by Big Bear
I feel like his stuff is not what it once was
He is striking out more than a batter per inning, his stuff is fine.
Comment
eaglesfan371
SBR MVP
01-08-19
4079
#18
Originally posted by LT Profits
Once he cuts his walks down, he should return to his normal level. He has never walked more that 3.00/9 in any season, this year so far he is at 4.00, that most likely will not continue as he builds his innings back up. He is still getting his strikeouts, which is a good sign, and his normal level is a career 3.48 xFIP.
Do you factor in age for players, so that when players begin to tank with age (lower BAA, higher ERA) your model accounts for that rather than saying “He has had worse numbers than expected but he will return to his normal self soon!”.
At what point do you just consider their current results to be closer to the mean population for their stats than previous years? For example couple of pitchers go 3-4 years with 3.5 ERA or less then all of sudden blow up, next few years 5+ ERA.
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#19
Originally posted by eaglesfan371
Do you factor in age for players, so that when players begin to tank with age (lower BAA, higher ERA) your model accounts for that rather than saying “He has had worse numbers than expected but he will return to his normal self soon!”. At what point do you just consider their current results to be closer to the population than previous years? For example couple of pitchers go 3-4 years with 3.5 ERA or less then all of sudden blow up, next few years 5+ ERA.
Recent seasons are weighted a bit heavier so that automatically incorporates age. Plus that are saber indicators that would point to a steep decline, and Archer looks fine, just like I said with Chris Sale when guys said he was "finished" a few weeks ago.
Comment
stackz125
SBR Hall of Famer
01-03-16
6209
#20
Originally posted by LT Profits
Angels or pass, Minnesota 54% (-117)
Wow... only 117
Huge difference
Comment
eaglesfan371
SBR MVP
01-08-19
4079
#21
Originally posted by LT Profits
Recent seasons are weighted a bit heavier so that automatically incorporates age. Plus that are saber indicators that would point to a steep decline, and Archer looks fine, just like I said with Chris Sale when guys said he was "finished" a few weeks ago.
Make sense, all about those weights.
Sale might’ve done good last night but his team still lost 😛
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#22
Originally posted by stackz125
Wow... only 117
Huge difference
Angels became intriguing at +133 as that is 3% variance from model, but passed because I never like to see line run away from model.
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#23
Originally posted by eaglesfan371
Make sense, all about those weights.
Sale might’ve done good last night but his team still lost ��
Does not matter that team lost, shit happens. Point is Sale is fine.
Comment
Big Bear
SBR Aristocracy
11-01-11
43253
#24
Originally posted by LT Profits
He is striking out more than a batter per inning, his stuff is fine.
Okay I’m sold taking the Pirates
Please don’t fukk me on this lol
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#25
Originally posted by Big Bear
Okay I’m sold taking the Pirates
Please don’t fukk me on this lol
No guarantees, I don't rate plays because I plays them all the same. So don't hate me if I go 4-1 with Pirates only loser.
Comment
Big Bear
SBR Aristocracy
11-01-11
43253
#26
Originally posted by LT Profits
No guarantees, I don't rate plays because I plays them all the same. So don't hate me if I go 4-1 with Pirates only loser.
lol I was jk but lets hope they win
Comment
Big Bear
SBR Aristocracy
11-01-11
43253
#27
Originally posted by LT Profits
He is striking out more than a batter per inning, his stuff is fine.
Archer is off to a bit of a rocky start
Comment
spippen
SBR MVP
03-17-09
3874
#28
You never know when the Pirates just won't score runs. Their run differential always makes me think twice before taking them. Not a bad team, just not a power house. Wishing you luck on the rest of the card tonight LT.
Comment
2daBank
SBR Aristocracy
01-26-09
88966
#29
Pirates got raped in the archer trade. Not only is Glasnow becoming a beast but they got meadows also!! Sucks for tampons that it sounds like Glasnow could be headed for TJ tho., that the unfortunate thing for rays, with their salary restrictions they can still compete but unlike the big boys when they take injuries they don’t have the resources to overcome them..
Archer has never developed that 3rd pitch he needs to be elite.
