Logistic Regression 2019

[KaiSquared]

To track a model-based approach to picking games. All 1 unit, but maybe will look next year at bet-sizing based on spread of prediction vs money line, if things work out okay

Today’s games

Mariners -119
White Sox +137

[Hman]

Best of luck

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 2-0 +237

Today’s games

Twins -128
Mariners +101
Dbacks-152
Phillies +100
Nats +127
Braves +114
White Sox +174

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 2-5 -3.52
Year 4-5 -1.52

Had an error in a transformation. Good to catch it now. Would have only played 1 game yesterday, ouch.

1 game today
Red Sox -149

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 1-0 +1
Year 5-5 -.52

Today’s games

Pirates +118
Cubs +127
Brewers +111
Braves -112

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 2-2 +.11
Year 7-7 -.41

Today
Twins -111
Angels -163
White Sox -116
Cubs +144
Reds +116
As -183
Mets -206

[KaiSquared]

Friday 4-3 +.22
Year 11-10 -.19

Didn't update on Saturday

Today's games

Dodgers -175
Mets -199
Astros +164
White Sox -116
Dbacks -172
Rangers +155
Angels -165
Cubs -135
Twins -102

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 3-6 -499

Year 14-16 -51

1 game today — Cubs -121

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 3-6 -499



Year 14-16 -51

1 game today — Cubs -121

Added Yankees -180

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 1-1 -21
Year 15-17 -539

Today

Red Sox -160
Cubs -135
Brew -140
Rockies -123
Twins +104

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 3-2 +4
Year 18-18 -535

Today

Atlanta -163
Minn -121
Boston -150

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 2-0 +200
Year 20-18 -335

Today
Braves -116
Twins -138
Marlins +135

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 3-0 +335
Year 23-18 0

Back to even - funny how that works

Today’s games
Cubs -178
Rays -133
Twins -195
Rangers +144
Brew -128

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 2-3 -195
year 25-21 -195

Today
Orioles +155
Rangers +113
Dodgers -190
Cubs -150
Braves - 109
As -126
Brew -131
Astros -128

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 5-3 +215
Year 30-24 +20

Today's games

Braves +135
Dodgers -160
Astrots -175
As -147
Cubs -165

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 3-2 -5
Year 33-26 +15

Today's games
Twins +103
Royals +103
Dbacks -105

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 0-2 -205
Year 33-28 -190

Added 3 new variables, and collecting data for a 4th

Today’s games
Cubs +129
Mets +183
Dbacks +122
Phillies -126
Tigers -111

Biggest disparity in line vs my probability is Tigers

[KaiSquared]

Today

Yankees -140

[KaiSquared]

Today

Yankees -140

Yesterday 3-2 +183

Year 36-30 -7

Today’s games

Yankees -140 (from earlier)
Cubs -104
Orioles -118
As -102
Dodgers -180
Braves -165
Giants -111

[KaiSquared]

Brewers -131

[KaiSquared]

Brewers -131

Yesterday 3-4 -196

Year 39-34 -203

Today
Brewers -131
Rangers -150

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 1-1 -50
Year 40-35 -253

Today’s game - won’t be back until Tuesday, playing all games today vs picking games where spreads are va their money lines

Today’s games
Indians -168
Jays +239
Angels -133
Astros -126
Dodgers -160
Marlins +147
Orioles +105
Braves -180
Brewers -129
Red Sox -153
Reds +101
Rangers -114
Cards -126

[KaiSquared]

Friday 5/31 6-7 -357
Year 46-42 -610

Today’s games

Cubs -124
Tigers +111
Mets -200
Marlins +162
Reds +107
Royals -121
Rangers -110
Padres -102

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 3-5 -310
Year 49-47 -920

Today
Phillies -136
Pirates +151
Royals +125
Braves -150
Diamondbacks -130
Cards -111
Dodgers -215
Nats -167

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 5-3 +189
Year 54-50 -731

Today's games
Jays +126
Phillies -137
Mets -163
Braves -140
Pirates +179
Astros -185
Dodgers -161
As -190
Cards +153

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 5-4 +63
Year 59-54 -668

Today
Angels +153
Cubs +116
Phils -136
Cards -141
Yanks -190
Bosox -240

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 2-3 -223
Year 61-57 -891

Today
Orioles +105
Indians -127
Giants +131
Royals -140
Astros -119
Phils -137

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 6-0 +636
Year 67-57 -255

Today

Lots of variance between the 2 model variations where they’re picking opposing teams. Only 3 games are agreed upon —

Phils -139
Bosox -144
Astros -128

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 1-2 -167
Year 68-59 -422

Today
Can’t log into Bmaker at the moment so I’ll have to grab some lines to use,but today’s games are

Twins
Rays
Royals

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 1-2 -167
Year 68-59 -422

Today
Can’t log into Bmaker at the moment so I’ll have to grab some lines to use,but today’s games are

Twins
Rays
Royals

Lines from today’s picks —

Twins -175
Rays -150
Royals +114

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 2-1 +64
Year 70-60 -358

Today
Twins -212
As -184
Rockies -123
Dodgers -131
Nats -174
Rays -163

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 4-2 +93
Year 74-62 -265

Today
Yanks -170
Reds -114
Phils -113
As -219
Rockies -170
Dodgers -185
Mets -135

[KaiSquared]

Yesterday 5-2 +216
Year 79-64 -49

Today
Dodgers -174
Reds -180
Nationals -141

[KaiSquared]

Today 3-0 +300
Year 82-64 +251

last 4 days — 14-4 +673

[KaiSquared]

Today

Rangers +110
Braves -161
Twins -140
Yankees -129
As -225