MLB - Thursday, 4/11/19

[LT Profits]

Lots of EARLY action today!


5 MLB Plays Thursday

Marlins / Reds OVER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Athletics / Orioles UNDER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Tigers +118 (Heritage)
Indians / Tigers UNDER 7.5 -105 (Heritage)
Mets / Braves UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)


YTD: 24-27-2, +0.42

[MrSink]

tailing Tigers + under at this point . GL

[ericcity]

A's have been hitting dingers all over the field. I'm staying away from that one.

[hondo5]

Marlins are lucky to score 1 run every game. What makes you like that over so much?

[FOREVER HUSKERS]

Good observation hondo. Maybe the reds will score 8 and the fish score their 1 we'll be in over heaven.

[MinnesotaFats]

A's have been hitting dingers all over the field. I'm staying away from that one.

LT model seems more skewed towards identifying value in the line versus what the trends of a particular squad is. Whereas that game might see an under at 9.5 -110, his model suggests a X #of runs per game at 30% a X#2 #of runs per game at 30% hence the under has a 60% chance of hitting and should -125 so at -110 we are gaining the houses statistical edge and if we bet at a 50/50 rate over time those %'s will put $$$ in our pocket.

At lmk east that's what I see....LT wont sell his model

[LT Profits]

A's have been hitting dingers all over the field. I'm staying away from that one.

I get that, but I have Bundy as a prime positive regression candidate, I actually have him as O's ace.

[LT Profits]

Marlins are lucky to score 1 run every game. What makes you like that over so much?

Cincinnati park factor should be more prevalent in day game, high today around 80. I end up with 9.4 total.

[LT Profits]

MLB Addition at 1:15 ET

6 MLB Plays Thursday

Marlins / Reds OVER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Athletics / Orioles UNDER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Tigers +118 (Heritage)
Indians / Tigers UNDER 7.5 -105 (Heritage)
Mariners / Royals UNDER 10 -105 (Heritage)
Mets / Braves UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)

[MinnesotaFats]

LT

I've got Os/ As over 8.5 at -115

That a play? 9.5 very high, this is big change

[hondo5]

Cincinnati park factor should be more prevalent in day game, high today around 80. I end up with 9.4 total.

Park factor isn’t going to help if they can’t hit the damn ball out of the infield. 😂

[LT Profits]

LT

I've got Os/ As over 8.5 at -115

That a play? 9.5 very high, this is big change

I just double-checked and my 9.5 is correct.

[LT Profits]

LT

I've got Os/ As over 8.5 at -115

That a play? 9.5 very high, this is big change

Check the line history, actually opened 10 on overnight, did not drop to 8.5 until around 10:30am ET

[spippen]

Park factor isn’t going to help if they can’t hit the damn ball out of the infield. 

Both of these teams are rubbish.

[eaglesfan371]

LT

I've got Os/ As over 8.5 at -115

That a play? 9.5 very high, this is big change

Lot of big money sharps getting buried. Moved a line from 10 to 8.5 and looking bad.

[MinnesotaFats]

I grabbed the over

I fade public

[spippen]

Sharps are only Sharp if they win. Sharps lose tons of times. A Sharps can move the line all day long. Following line movement and then betting based on the movement is a good way to watch your money go down the drain.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

7 MLB Plays Thursday

Marlins / Reds OVER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Athletics / Orioles UNDER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Tigers +118 (Heritage)
Indians / Tigers UNDER 7.5 -105 (Heritage)
Mariners / Royals UNDER 10 -105 (Heritage)
Mets / Braves UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Pirates / Cubs UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)

[stackz125]

How about the jays?

[ericcity]

I ended up hitting A's TT runs, Total Runs Over, and A's -1.5.