Tbill's Jubilee of Baseball Glory

[MexicanStallion]

Thanks tbill. Great call with the Dodgers game. I played a unit on the Braves, but forgot to post it. I won 2 units with your under. Hope the second games cashes. Good luck with your remaining bets

[MexicanStallion]

Great day Tbill. Another positive day for yourself. Thanks again for your over/under plays. I do not play those very well at all, so I tailed those lately and have been cashing. Any idea what your record/units is for ML/Totals? I have noticed you on a nice run with them lately.

[tbill11]

Day Record: 3-1 +2.32 Units
Overall: 39-26-2 +16.17 Units

Stallion, I haven't checked how I do in O/U vs. sides, but I'll do some leg work on that over the next day or two and get back to you. I think I hit O/U on a slightly higher success ratio, the problem is that you usually can't pick up crumbs when playing total. I really don't mind as long as I'm winning, but I try to get a good balance.

As for today's picks, here we go!

Athletics +104
Well, I have to play it. I'm going to the game, it's Rickey day Part 2, it's the rubber game of the series, and Vin Mazzaro is pitching at home to a crowd that is infatuated with him despite his poor recent performances. The Sacramento Rivercats...erm, A's, are gonna get it done today!

Red Sox/Orioles Over 9.5 (-115)
Sox are lighting up the ballpark right now, and neither Berken or Buchholz are good pitchers. I think this should be a nice little hitters game.

White Sox +121
Yet again, Buehrle ain't getting no respect from Vegas. Well, Sox are hitting better than the Yanks, and Buehrle's a stud on fire. Let's see a Sox win today!

Reds/Rockies Under 8.5 (-115)
Neither of these teams can hit right now. Marquis and Arroyo aren't bad pitchers by any means (well, more Marquis than Arroyo, but still). I'm least confident on this pick, but the numbers line up for an under. Let's hope it hits.


Good luck everyone!

[tbill11]

Day Record: 1-3 -2.15 Units
Overall: 40-29-2 +14.02 Units

Not the most successful of days yesterday, especially as I sat in the Oakland-Alameda Coliseum watching my pride and my money slip away as my favorite ball club slipped into more nothingness.

Pirates/Nationals Over 9 (-115)
Let's be honest here, what better things do these too crappy teams have to do but beat each other up? The pitchers are bad, the hitters are relatively hot (despite me not being able to name a single one of them not named McCutheon), and well, it's just two bad teams that will probably hit like crazy.

Padres -109
Latos has been pitching well, and the Padres are slugging .550 over the past 3 games to the Braves .240. The over looks rather juicy too, but I don't know if the Braves are gonna pull their hitting together. Hate to pick such an awful team as the Padres, but they are dominating all the categories that I look for.

Dodgers -1.5 (-110)
Parra is going to, quite simply, get lit up. The Dodgers are coming home after a long, taxing road trip, and their home fans are thirsty for blood.

That's all I've got right now, not seeing much else. Good luck everyone!

[tbill11]

Day Record: 2-1 +0.85 Units
Overall: 42-30-2 +14.87 Units

Had a couple rough losses in other sports this morning: time to win it back with baseball!

Red Sox/Rays Over 8 (-120) 2 Units
Two of the best hitting teams in baseball both right now, and in general. Lester and Garza are great pitchers, but pitching duels rarely occur in division rival matches like this one. The Over is the right play.

Angels/White Sox Over 9 (-120)
Angels and White Sox are both on fire recently, and Contreras and Lackey aren't the pitchers to stop this great hitting.

Royals/Mariners Under 8.5 (-105)
Hochevar and Rowland-Smith both have pretty fantastic WHIPs over their past three games, despite their ERAs not showing it. Royals and Mariners are both not hitting too well either, so this should be an easy under.

Mariners -115
This team will not accept being out of the AL West race and should easily beat the lowly Royals tonight.

[Maddhatter]

BoL Tbill. I have similar picks today.

[tbill11]

Added Play:

Red Sox Team Total Over 4 (-105)
Sox have gone 4 or over runs in 8 out of their last 10, and are slugging .629 in their last 3. Garza's great, but the Rays pen has a 1.7 Whip in the past 3. This should be an easy over.

[tbill11]

Very rough day for me all around yesterday. Here's the damage:

Day Record: 1-3-1 -3.50 Units
Overall: 43-33-2 +11.37 Units

I have to make some morning plays to keep my entertained at work, so here's what I've got:

Cardinals -134
When in a slump, nothing like turning to a classy team to pull it out for you. I never know what to make of Lohse and Niese, but Lohse is a lot less terrible than Niese statistically and otherwise. The two teams are almost dead even in hitting, but the Cards have the pitching matchup won and the intangibles of being an actual playoff contender. Cards come to play today.

Giants +105
Welcome to the bigs kid, your clubs going to get you a win. Giants are hitting significantly better than the Astros, and Moehler is on a downswing. Only reason Giants are dogs is because this guys unknown. Not for long...


More later!

[MexicanStallion]

I will be on the Cards as well. Let's cash early and finish strong tonight.

[tbill11]

1-1 so far today. Giants looked impressive as I thought they would, but the Cards really laid an egg. I don't think I can bet on Lohse anymore. He's a total gascan.

Anyway, for tonight:

D-Backs/Pirates Over 8 (-110)
Davis is struggling on the mound, and the D-Backs are slugging .565 over their past 3. The Pirates aren't hitting well at all, but I'm thinking Davis's pitching and the D-Backs hitting should push this total over.

Dodgers -145
Dodgers will be dominant just as they were last night. Looper is not a smart enough pitcher (notice I didn't say good enough, smart enough) to stop the Dodgers dominant lineup. It will show tonight.

Twins/Indians Over 9 (-120)
Laffey and Liriano are not impressive this year, and the Twins have been knocking the crap out of the ball lately. Only thing stopping me from taking the Twins side is that Liriano scares me. It should go over though.

Rockies +130
The Phillies are getting all the hype and public money, but they don't deserve it. As much as I love the club, the Rockies are hitting better, have the same record, and have a hot pitcher on the mound. Upset alert fellas!

Good luck everyone!

[tbill11]

Man I'm on an awful run these past few days. Baseball's been sh*t, and my big WNBA play of the day missed by a half point. Gotta love how gambling works out...just hope I have some money left for football season. Anyway, updated records:

Day Record: 1-4-1 -3.84 Units
Overall: 44-37-3 +7.53 Units

Got some ideas to win tomorrow morning, so let's see if we can't make that happen. Sleep well compadres.

[tbill11]

Looks like I got exactly what I wanted this morning to bring me to a nice turnaround. Don't have time to explain much before work, but these are all some very nice plays.

Marlins/Nationals Over 8.5 (-125)
Phillies -1.5 (+125)
Orioles/Tigers Under 9.5 (-120)

Good luck, and lets win some money back!

[tbill11]

Day Record: 2-1 +1.05 Units
Overall: 46-38-8 +8.58 Units

Nationals/Diamondbacks Under 9 (+105)
All of my statistics say to go over on this one. But it's the D'Backs and Nationals...and they've been hitting and streaking far too much for them to both not fall apart tonight. Squares will be on the over, but they'll forget that these two teams are awful and the pitchers are decent enough to pull off an under.

Brewers/Astros Under 9 (-110)
Tailing CK on this one. It's true, neither of these teams are hitting well and the pitching matchup is favorable for an under.

Dodgers/Braves Over 7.5 (-105)
Braves and Dodgers are two high powered clubs. Jurrjens and Billingsley haven't been enormously impressive as of late. This should go over.

That's all for tonight. Good luck!

[tbill11]

Day Record: 1-1-1 +0.00 Units
Overall: 47-39-5 +8.58 Units

Texas +154
The Rangers have all the statistical advantages here, although this is a risky play because the Angels are at home and this is a division rivalry game. I think that the Rangers pull it out here though.

Reds/Giants Over 8.5 (-110)
Giants are hitting well lately (.555 Slugging in their past three), and will want to avenge Lincecum's loss yesterday. Plus Arroyo's a gas can and Zito's not that much better.

Tigers -1.5 (+105)
How could Pavano possibly be ready to beat Verlander and the smoking hot Tigers after being traded yesterday? There's no way that the Twinkies win this one...

Cubs/Rockies Under 9 (+105)
The Cubs can't hit a barn door right now, and Marquis/Dempster is a pitcher's duel waiting to happen.

Good luck!

[tbill11]

Well, I guess everybody has to have a 0-fer eventually.

Day Record: 0-4 -4.10 Units
Overall: 46-42-8 +4.48 Units

Don't really have much awakeness left in me for explanations right now, but here's what I've got for tomorrow:

Giants -1.5 (+115)
Astros -112
Phillies +108

Let's hope tomorrow's a better day!

[tbill11]

Another unfortunate update:

Day Record: 1-2 -1.00 Units
Overall: 47-44-5 +3.38 Units

I'll be back to post picks later!

[tbill11]

Two plays for today (excluding my JM bet on Detroit, which I don't think I would have played normally):

Mets/Diamondbacks Under 9 (-110)
The D'backs and Mets have returned to their batting inept ways, and Davis/Pelfrey is a solid enough pitching matchup to help these squads continue with their hitting woes.

Rays/Angels Under 9.5 (-115)
O'Sullivan may be nothing special, but Garza is, and neither of these clubs are hitting well enough to put up 4-5 runs each in this game.

Alright guys, lets get a nice 2-0 tonight to get back on track. GL!

[tbill11]

Crunch time boys, time to tell whether I can hold onto my positive record or not.

Day Record: 0-2 -2.25 Units
Overall: 47-46-5 +1.13 Units

Rangers/Indians Over 9 (-120)
Pitchers may be hot, but the hitters are even hotter. Texas knows how to score runs and Laffey got lit up against the Rangers the first time he faced them. Indians have never seen Nippert before, but they're a good enough hitting club to put up a few runs.

Rangers +106
They have all the advantages and are a playoff contender. How they are dogs in this game is beyond me.

Tigers +107 2 Units
Porcello's a stud, and the Tigers will avenge their close loss to the Sox last night. Let's make me back some money Tigers!

That's all I'm gonna post for tonight. Let's get back to winning tonight!

[MexicanStallion]

Rough patch, but good luck buddy. Turn it around today.

[tbill11]

At least I'm on a tear in the WNBA right now. Hoping to place in the contest as well to make some more money to work with for football season.

[head_strong]

Nice looking thread you have going on here .....GL

[MexicanStallion]

At least I'm on a tear in the WNBA right now. Hoping to place in the contest as well to make some more money to work with for football season.

Thats true. You are doing good work in WNBA. Good luck the remaining days

[tbill11]

Nice looking thread you have going on here .....GL

Thanks! It's nice looking, but not exactly the best results the past few days. Been cold as ice in baseball. Always time to turn it around tomorrow though (since thankfully my WNBA wins are keeping my bankroll alive). I've got a feeling tomorrow will be a good day though.

As for today's awful performance:
Day Record: 0-3 -4.20 Units
Overall: 47-49-5 -3.07 Units

Tail at your own risk lately guys. I'll be back in the morning putting more nails in my coffin.

[head_strong]

Don't sweat it, you'll bounce back, everyone has tough days.....baseball hasn't been to kind to me either, football is right around the corner, just hoping I can hold on and not sink the ship before it gets here.

[tbill11]

Alright, I can't really explain since I'm just heading out the door to work, but here's what I've got to get us bounced back into the black:

Yankees/Blue Jays Over 9 (-115)
Athletics +119

[MexicanStallion]

I have no leans here, but good luck. You are too good to be on a losing streak. Turn it around

[tbill11]

Thanks man, A's already a win today and hopefully this extra innings Yankee game will go over. Here's my afternoon picks:

Texas -128
Yesterday's awful performance will be avenged tonight. Carmona is 3/4 of the way back down to AAA, and Hunter's been an anchor in this Texas rotation of late. Not to mention the Rangers bullpen WHIP is .250.

Phillies/Cubs Under 10.5 (-110)
Everyone's expecting Pedro to be disgustingly bad, and Samardzija is also untested. But slumping teams will not recover if they're facing pitchers they've never seen before, and I'm not sure these two squads could put up 11 runs even if much worse pitchers were on the hill. It's a risky pick, but I think I'm right.

[tbill11]

Day Record: 2-2 -0.06 Units
Overall: 49-51-5 -3.13 Units

For the morning games:

Tigers -117
Verlander's gotten shafted in his last two starts, and while everybody and his brother is on the Tigers here, the public is occasionally right. Verlander could be pitching against Satan's army and I'd take him at -117. He's just that good.

Indians EV
Sowers as a home dog? Give me a break.

Excited to wake up and see how Verlander and Lee (two of my favorite pitchers) are faring. Let's hope these bets hit nicely as well!

[tbill11]

SBR software is killing me. I had my explainations typed up and they just got deleted. Just gonna list the plays now:

Day Record: 1-1 +0.00 Units
Overall: 50-52-5 -3.13 Units

Diamondbacks -108
Athletics/White Sox Under 8.5 (-115)


Good luck homies!

[tbill11]

Day Record: 1-1 -0.15 Units
Overall: 51-53-5 -3.28 Units

As for today:

Rockies/Marlins Over 9 (-120)
Both teams are hitting well and the pitching matchup shouldn't stop this.

Twins/Indians Under 10 (EV)
The number is so high on this one because Swarzak and Huff have been crap recently. However, I think these starters are both due for an adjustment, and haven't been impressed by either the Twins or Indians hitting as of late.

Angels -1.5 (+105)
Lackey's on the hill against a team who he absolutely dominates, and the Angels just got blown out. Easy money right here.

Good luck tonight to all who still trust me and tail me haha.
These two clubs are hitting very well lately, and Cook and Vandenhurk aren't the pitchers to stop that streak. Let's go over!

[MexicanStallion]

Nice work on the + day. It's a shame about the push on the Indians/Twins Under.

[tbill11]

Yeah definitely too bad, though I'm just happy it didn't go over after it was already at 9 in the 6th inning.

Day Record: 1-0-1 +1.05 Units
Overall: 52-53-5 -2.23 Units

A few quick picks for today:

Cardinals/Padres Over 9 (-115)
Lohse is a gas can and the Cardinals are a hot hitting, high powered team that will hit Richard.

Rockies/Marlins Over 9 (+105) Game 1
Same reasons as yesterday's over pick.

Cubs/Pirates Under 11 (-120)
I have no idea why this number is so high, as the Pirates couldn't hit a bad pitcher, much less Rich Harden, and Ohlendorf isn't that awful. This one should easily stay under 11.

Good luck everyone!

[tbill11]

Day: 2-0 +2.05 Units (1 No Bet)
Overall: 54-53-5 -0.18 Units

Gotta run, but here are my plays for today:

Giants/Mets Under 9 (-115)
Angels/Orioles Over 10 (-120)

Good luck everyone!

[tbill11]

Day Record: 1-1 -0.15 Units
Overall: 55-54-5 -0.32 Units

OK, let's get into positive units today. Here we go!

Marlins -115
Nolasco has a very deceptive ERA, as his WHIP is quite good. The Marlins are also hitting much better than the Astros, and I feel that they are a better team. They deserve to be road favorites, and will prove why tonight.

Tigers/Mariners Under 8 (-110)
This has the makings of a good old fashioned pitchers duel. Porcello has found his form and will pitch to a home crowd eager to see him make up for last weeks incident, and King Felix is still King Felix. This one could go under 5 if you as me.

White Sox/Royals Over 9.5 (+105)
There's some uncertainty here, as it's Freddy Garcia's first start of the season, but Meche is a gas can, and Garcia should give up at least a few runs. Sox and Royals are both hitting well too, so I could see 10 runs get put up in this game.

That's my hand, and I'm sticking to it. Best of luck boys!

[MexicanStallion]

Good luck today