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Cubs -105: This is excellent value for a great home team like the Cubs against a Braves team that cannot hit.
louis.ana
SBR Sharp
02-09-09
359
#2
Ditto on the Cubs +103, I would like to throw into the mix:
Houston Astros -113 San Francisco Giants +122
Comment
fifawcs
SBR MVP
05-14-07
2888
#3
I like those a lot. I'm gonna add them.
Astros -113: Astros are better than the Pirates in every category. Maholm has been atrocious on the road this season. Pirates are significantly worse without Freddy Sanchez, who is likely to miss this series.
Giants +122: While Josh Johnson is a solid starter, Zito can be just as good in the friendly confines of AT&T park. The Giants also have a solid offense at home and a much better bullpen than the Fish.
Comment
Wilforth
Restricted User
05-10-08
16309
#4
Valuest picks:
CWS RL +135 (Thanks to the Indians bullpen)
Phillies RL +145 (Reds can't hit)
Mariners +150 (Just watch and see)
Comment
louis.ana
SBR Sharp
02-09-09
359
#5
Originally posted by Wilforth
Valuest picks:
CWS RL +135 (Thanks to the Indians bullpen)
Phillies RL +145 (Reds can't hit)
Mariners +150 (Just watch and see)
I wouldn't consider the RL as a value play. CWS, PHI, and SEA are all favorites of -140 to -150, and playing the spread gets you a better return.
When we are speaking of a "value play", we are looking for teams that should be heavy favorites on the ML, but vegas has them as near even or as a dog.
Comment
Wilforth
Restricted User
05-10-08
16309
#6
Originally posted by louis.ana
I wouldn't consider the RL as a value play. CWS, PHI, and SEA are all favorites of -140 to -150, and playing the spread gets you a better return.
When we are speaking of a "value play", we are looking for teams that should be heavy favorites on the ML, but vegas has them as near even or as a dog.
CSW, PHI and SEA are both deserved and situational favorites. They're not false favorites.
Comment
fifawcs
SBR MVP
05-14-07
2888
#7
BTW, Zambrano is now pitching for Cubs.
RLs aren't my style. Although, I calculated that RLs hit for the yankees 78% of the time they win the game. So if your gonna do RLs, do it with yanks in an uneven matchup.
Comment
Wilforth
Restricted User
05-10-08
16309
#8
Originally posted by fifawcs
RLs aren't my style. Although, I calculated that RLs hit for the yankees 78% of the time they win the game. So if your gonna do RLs, do it with yanks in an uneven matchup.
I don't do RLs based on team percentages. I do RLs by identifying certain pitchers whose teams often win or lose by at least 2 runs. The RLs I posted meet that criteria and we'll see.
Comment
louis.ana
SBR Sharp
02-09-09
359
#9
Not happy with the pitcher change for the Cubs
Comment
Wilforth
Restricted User
05-10-08
16309
#10
Originally posted by louis.ana
Not happy with the pitcher change for the Cubs
The Cubs will still win and the game will go Under. The Braves' offense won't give any run support to Vasquez. I don't know what he's done to them.
Comment
fifawcs
SBR MVP
05-14-07
2888
#11
Damn, lost both Cubs and Astros. Regardless of outcome, they were both good plays. No way to predict what happened. Let's hope Giants can win it.
Comment
louis.ana
SBR Sharp
02-09-09
359
#12
I'm not too fond of Zambrano, Dempster was a better fit.
Thank goodness my bet was cancelled due to Dempster must pitch.
Houston blew it in the 7th.. it was a close game until then.
San Fran is up 3-0 in the bottom of the 6th. If they can keep this up I will only be up 0.22 units.
I had my eye on Saint Louis but had some doubt due to some inconsistencies, must play more dogs in the future.
