Curious Plays Thur July 2 YTD 35-37 +.5 Units

[curious]

Yesterday was a massacre on sides. Totals did okay. Back to even. In 3 seasons of baseball I have never had a run this bad. Baseball is very strange this year.

CIN RL -1 1/2 +160 4 to win 6.4 Lost -4
PIT RL -1 1/2 +150 5 to win 7.5 Lost -5
SDG RL +1 1/2 -165 9.9 to win 6
PHI RL +1 1/2 -170 6.8 to win 4
NYY RL -1 1/2 -135 13.5 to win 10
SFO RL +1 1/2 -170 8.5 to win 5
CUB ML -150 6 to win 4

Adding:
LAA ML -150 7.5 to win 5
CWS ML -140 5.6 to win 4

[therber2]

For u/o's I'm leaning on:
LAA/BAL u9.5
PIT/NYM (I already posted up somewhere) u8.5

I saw your conversation in CK's thread. CK had a point that if you want to invest now would be the time to tail the government. I just can't figure out wtf they are doing, and my own investments seem to be extra volatile lately. What is your perspective on this?

Right now I'm looking at El Paso natural gas pipleline. Cheapest commodity right now, and in normal conditions should be due for a lift off. I think this is a good buy, but before I buy ANYTHING these days I find myself stopping, and thinking: how is the government going to impact my investment. This is the most hands on government I've seen.

What would you be buying right now with this in mind?

[curious]

For u/o's I'm leaning on:
LAA/BAL u9.5
PIT/NYM (I already posted up somewhere) u8.5

I saw your conversation in CK's thread. CK had a point that if you want to invest now would be the time to tail the government. I just can't figure out wtf they are doing, and my own investments seem to be extra volatile lately. What is your perspective on this?

Right now I'm looking at El Paso natural gas pipleline. Cheapest commodity right now, and in normal conditions should be due for a lift off. I think this is a good buy, but before I buy ANYTHING these days I find myself stopping, and thinking: how is the government going to impact my investment. This is the most hands on government I've seen.

What would you be buying right now with this in mind?

I have all my money in cash with two exceptions. I have a call on DOW futures contracts at DOW 10,000 and I have a put on DOW futures contracts at DOW 7000.

The Great Depression was deepened and lengthened by many years because businesses never knew what FDR was going to do next. So many crazy policies and so many anti-business policies were enacted during the Great Depression that businesses never knew if their investments would be safe or not.

We live in a worse environment today. FDR was a closet communist. Obama is an out of the closet communist. Obama has proven that contract law is no longer sacrosanct in this country and he has proven that property rights mean nothing. No one is going to invest in the United States in an environment like this. The big energy projects that Obama wants to happen to fulfill his delusion of switching from coal to something else are not going to happen because no one in their right mind would invest the billions of dollars necessary to do projects like this in a country which has proven that it can and will radically alter the playing field with the stroke of a pen.

The environmental radicals have been given full reign over the US economy. They can shut down anyone they want at will. They just put 80,000 farmers out of business in California because of a minnow.

I see one of two things happening. Either the American people are the mindless sheep that the DemoCong elites believe them to be, in which case we will become the Union of Amerikan Socialist Republics and the game is over, or the American people will see Obama for what he is and will put an end to his nonsense by putting the jobs of the Congress on the line.

If the first happens a few favored industries will be take off, the rest of the market will decline 90%. If the second happens, depending on how strong the retrenchment is, the market will take off. So, in my view we are either headed for a huge market crash or a huge market boom. So, the only way I can see to invest right now is to make wagers on both outcomes by using options on futures contracts. This isn't investing, it is gambling, but it is a calculated bet with low risk.

[therber2]

I have all my money in cash with two exceptions. I have a call on DOW futures contracts at DOW 10,000 and I have a put on DOW futures contracts at DOW 7000.

The Great Depression was deepened and lengthened by many years because businesses never knew what FDR was going to do next. So many crazy policies and so many anti-business policies were enacted during the Great Depression that businesses never knew if their investments would be safe or not.

We live in a worse environment today. FDR was a closet communist. Obama is an out of the closet communist. Obama has proven that contract law is no longer sacrosanct in this country and he has proven that property rights mean nothing. No one is going to invest in the United States in an environment like this. The big energy projects that Obama wants to happen to fulfill his delusion of switching from coal to something else are not going to happen because no one in their right mind would invest the billions of dollars necessary to do projects like this in a country which has proven that it can and will radically alter the playing field with the stroke of a pen.

The environmental radicals have been given full reign over the US economy. They can shut down anyone they want at will. They just put 80,000 farmers out of business in California because of a minnow.

I see one of two things happening. Either the American people are the mindless sheep that the DemoCong elites believe them to be, in which case we will become the Union of Amerikan Socialist Republics and the game is over, or the American people will see Obama for what he is and will put an end to his nonsense by putting the jobs of the Congress on the line.

If the first happens a few favored industries will be take off, the rest of the market will decline 90%. If the second happens, depending on how strong the retrenchment is, the market will take off. So, in my view we are either headed for a huge market crash or a huge market boom. So, the only way I can see to invest right now is to make wagers on both outcomes by using options on futures contracts. This isn't investing, it is gambling, but it is a calculated bet with low risk.

"80,000 farmers out of business in California because of a minnow."

We are turning into such a weak and pathetic country. I made an investment plan during the oil contango and the announcement of the Obama era. The plan was to wait for the "something bigger" to take control of this commodity. The big question was what is keeping oil down, and when will it go up. Well my bet was to buy an ETF "DIG" when nearby oil crosses the 50 day moving average, and foreign money spills into the market (this is the current possible state of affairs with natural gas). It is a commodity just waiting to be bought up by foreign dollars once the exhausted domestic are out).

Anyways, that is when I bought the thing, and that is when the commodity got off the ground. Simple algorithms that set off buy and sell orders is what I wanted to play with this commodity. Next part of the plan involved red flags going off and the environmentalism hounds getting stuck on oil (possibly where we are at now). Oil on the verge of toppling; perfect time for the environmentalists to give it a nudge, and push solar, wind, alts. I can see the government backing this plan as well (even though it makes no sense).

$40.00 a barrel is the break even price; $70.00 a barrel is the spot where big oil was R&Diing. If the gov. really cared about the environment they would encourage oil instead of braindead hippies, and see to it that the ones with the capabilities get "the job" done. Instead it is a war against big oil; so I wonder what is up their sleeve. I know gov. doesn't really care about the environment, and the "Obamists" hate free market; so where do they think they are going? All out social reconstruction at the cost of all logic?

[curious]

I know gov. doesn't really care about the environment, and the "Obamists" hate free market; so where do they think they are going? All out social reconstruction at the cost of all logic?

The true agenda of the so-called environmentalists is zero growth and the destruction of the US industrial base. The DemoCong gave the environmentalists control of the US energy and economic policies because they agree with this agenda. It is really simple. People who are COMPLETELY dependent on the government are a guaranteed vote. Destroy the industrial base and you put everyone in that category.

The environmentalists want to destroy our industry because they have idiotic notions that life before the steam engine was somehow idyllic. Just read the idiot magazines like Mother Earth News and similar magazines.

The real crime here is that we could have what the environmentalist say they want quite easily.

Hydro power and nuclear power could replace coal and we would have 100% clean electricity production. Oh, but the environmentalists destroyed both of those industries years ago. Now, why would they do that? Destroy clean electricity generation industries, then demand that all electricity generation be converted to "clean" technologies? It is because their goal is to eliminate electricity production completely.

Even with hydro and nuclear off the table we could STILL have clean electricity generation. Wind and solar are not the answer,that is ridiculous. But, clean coal technology is. The US has hundreds of billions of bbls of proven reserves in old oil fields, the oil is there we just cannot get it out with current technology. But, inject CO2 and the oil comes bubbling up.

Over the next 10 years we will pay tens of TRILLIONS of $$ to our enemies for oil. If instead, the coal industry was converted to use the CO2 recapture technology and these untapped oil reserves were made available, these tens of trillions of $$ would stay in the US and we would have plenty of money to do R&D on a replacement for the internal destruction engine, gasoline from oil, and other technologies.

What the Obamists are doing is completely impoverishing the very companies that they then say have to make huge investments in technologies that are "Obamist friendly". This is idiotic. Bankrupt companies don't make investments.

So, it is obvious that the Obamists have no intention of moving the US to these new technologies, they want to bankrupt and then take over the existing technology companies.

We have already seen the blueprint for this in how the car companies and the financial companies were bankrupted and then taken over by the communists.

Next will come all the electric utilities, then the coal companies, then the US oil companies, then the oil refineries, they will all be bankrupted and taken over the communists.

I was in the solar energy business in the 80s. We BEGGED for R&D money, tax credits, grants, and subsidies to turn a fledgling industry into a real industry. The feds did NOTHING to help us. The solar industries all moved offshore, mostly to Germany, some to Israel and Turkey.

Now, these same politicians are screaming that American businesses did not do enough to make the solar industry more mature. Give me a ****ing break.

[curious]

And the disaster continues....losing streak is now 8 games

Well, my losing streak on sides is now at 8 games...

The longest losing streak I have had in 3 seasons of MLB. Actually, I think it is the longest losing streak over 4 sports, NCAAB, NCAAF, NBA, and MLB.

I am using every predictive filter I know. Nothing works. <sigh>

[therber2]

Are you using JS's innings scored/innings played rating as one of your filters? What is his time frame for that, by the way?.

I always compare 3 day (recent) and 21 day stats; sometimes further back if I'm pounding the pick hard. If 3 and 21 don't match I either scratch the play or the edge attack or more likely just ease up on my units. The Rockies made me a killing by matching ranges in the past couple of weeks for SU wins, and some prop moves.

What filters are you applying now? Ya know, you applied the filters, and the variable unit system at the same time.

How is the scored scoreless thing going? Did you get my message?

[curious]

Yesterday was a massacre on sides. Totals did okay. Back to even. In 3 seasons of baseball I have never had a run this bad. Baseball is very strange this year.

CIN RL -1 1/2 +160 4 to win 6.4 Lost -4
PIT RL -1 1/2 +150 5 to win 7.5 Lost -5
SDG RL +1 1/2 -165 9.9 to win 6 Lost -9.9
PHI RL +1 1/2 -170 6.8 to win 4 Lost -6.8
NYY RL -1 1/2 -135 13.5 to win 10 Lost -13.5
SFO RL +1 1/2 -170 8.5 to win 5 Lost -8.5
CUB ML -150 6 to win 4 Win +4

Adding:
LAA ML -150 7.5 to win 5 Win +5
CWS ML -140 5.6 to win 4 Win +4

Summary 3-6 -34.7 Units

[curious]

Are you using JS's innings scored/innings played rating as one of your filters? What is his time frame for that, by the way?.

I always compare 3 day (recent) and 21 day stats; sometimes further back if I'm pounding the pick hard. If 3 and 21 don't match I either scratch the play or the edge attack or more likely just ease up on my units. The Rockies made me a killing by matching ranges in the past couple of weeks for SU wins, and some prop moves.

What filters are you applying now? Ya know, you applied the filters, and the variable unit system at the same time.

How is the scored scoreless thing going? Did you get my message?

I use last 7 days runs scored and runs allowed + $Won/$Lost at that line range at home/away for the season.

The losing streak ended up being 13 games.

Yes, I also look at JS's innings scored/innings played.

The scored/scoreless is doing very well. I thought I replied to your message. I'll check.

[G's pks]

Curious I remember you from before... I remember in basketball you gave out some great info...

But I am wondering a little here... How long does it take to pick your games? I see you are basically even after 72 picks in a week... If this is a time consuming process... maybe some changes are needed?

[Beastxxx]

In 3 seasons of baseball I have never had a run this bad. Baseball is very strange this year.

No shit I won just once this year.
Looking forward to your picks though.
Thanks

[curious]

Curious I remember you from before... I remember in basketball you gave out some great info...

But I am wondering a little here... How long does it take to pick your games? I see you are basically even after 72 picks in a week... If this is a time consuming process... maybe some changes are needed?

It doesn't take very long, I have everything automated.

I always play large numbers of plays. In NBA last season I had over 1,000 plays because I was doing quarters, halves, totals, and sides. NCAAB I don't even know how many plays I had. Several thousand I guess.

Something is definitely off in MLB. I just can't figure out what it is.

It seems like the stats I use for their predictive power are actually contrarian indicators this year.

For example:
A 1.00 ERA on a hot team is facing a 7.00 ERA pitcher on a cold team. Take the 1.00 ERA pitcher, right? WRONG. The 1.00 ERA pitcher got blown out, the 7.00 ERA pitcher pitched a 3 hit shutout.

I have been beat by a long list of garbage like this.

Two teams who are both scoring and giving up runs in bushel baskets are facing each other. The play is the over, right? WRONG. The game ends up 1-0.

Two other teams who have great pitching and no hitting are facing each other. The UNDER is the play here, right? WRONG. The OVER wins by 8 runs.

It goes on and on like this.

[Panekkkk]

It doesn't take very long, I have everything automated.

I always play large numbers of plays. In NBA last season I had over 1,000 plays because I was doing quarters, halves, totals, and sides. NCAAB I don't even know how many plays I had. Several thousand I guess.

Something is definitely off in MLB. I just can't figure out what it is.

It seems like the stats I use for their predictive power are actually contrarian indicators this year.

For example:
A 1.00 ERA on a hot team is facing a 7.00 ERA pitcher on a cold team. Take the 1.00 ERA pitcher, right? WRONG. The 1.00 ERA pitcher got blown out, the 7.00 ERA pitcher pitched a 3 hit shutout.

I have been beat by a long list of garbage like this.

Two teams who are both scoring and giving up runs in bushel baskets are facing each other. The play is the over, right? WRONG. The game ends up 1-0.

Two other teams who have great pitching and no hitting are facing each other. The UNDER is the play here, right? WRONG. The OVER wins by 8 runs.

It goes on and on like this.

After going up 25 units in baseball earlier this year, I literally, no joke, hit a 1-20 streak over interleague. It was the worst streak of any kind I've had in anything. 9 ninth-inning/extra-inning losses. Trends are not consistent. All trends seem to be reversing at the exact times I want to bet on them. I have completely stopped looking at last 3-game stats. If anything, I fade the trend now.

Like with your $For/$Against. Even if a team is hugely $For so far this year, is that a trend you tail? Or does that simply mean that they are overdue for a correction. I'm starting to think the latter.

[curious]

After going up 25 units in baseball earlier this year, I literally, no joke, hit a 1-20 streak over interleague. It was the worst streak of any kind I've had in anything. 9 ninth-inning/extra-inning losses. Trends are not consistent. All trends seem to be reversing at the exact times I want to bet on them. I have completely stopped looking at last 3-game stats. If anything, I fade the trend now.

Like with your $For/$Against. Even if a team is hugely $For so far this year, is that a trend you tail? Or does that simply mean that they are overdue for a correction. I'm starting to think the latter.

I can't make any sense out of it either way. The backtesting I did showed $For/$Against at a given line range as a predictive indicator. And the plays I did before I started posting here, and the first few days of posting that held true. The last few days it is now a contrarian indicator.

I don't believe in "...overdue for....". I have seen people lose a LOT of money betting on things like "XXX has won 5 games in a row, they are due for a loss....".

I'll just keep doing what I know how to do and see what happens.

[DeeWizzle]

How'd them 1st inning / total parlays do Curious?

[curious]

How'd them 1st inning / total parlays do Curious?

Great, now running 100-0 on them.

[DeeWizzle]

Nice.

[G's pks]

Curious...good luck... Hopefully you hit like you did in basketball..

[Dexter]

Great, now running 100-0 on them.

100 and 0 on baseball parlays this season?