Curious Plays Mon June 29 YTD 16-13 +6.05 units

[curious]

I am going to multiple units, ranging from 1 to 10. The number is based on the value and the kelly criterion. A 10 unit should be 3% of your bankroll. Calculate unit size from that.

Chicago Cubs ML -110 2.2 to win 2 Win +2.0
New York Mets RL +1 1/2 -175 5.25 to win 3 Lost -5.25
Toronto Blue Jays RL -1 1/2 +135 7 to win 9.45 Lost -7.0
San Diego Padres ML +130 6 to win 7.8 Lost -6.0
Los Angeles Dodgers ML -115 1.15 to win 1 Won +1.0

3 Pick Parlay: +720 1 unit to win 7.2 Lost -1.0
Cubs ML -110
Padres ML +130
Dodgers ML -115

Lottery +2900 .1 to win 2.9 Lost -.1
Cubs ML -110
Padres ML +130
Dodgers ML -115
Mets RL +1 1/2 -175
Blue Jays RL -1 1/2 +135

Results 2-4 -16.25

[therber2]

Good call with the Cubs. They're the one team I'd never bet against (just cause I grew up seeing them; can't bet against your boys. Only for.), For this game I actually leaned towards Pirates looking at recent and long term stats; Pirates had a definite edge. Take whatever you did for this game in particular today, and fine tune it there.

"Stats"-wise I'm with you on LAD; I think they have a slight edge; and then there is a gut feeling about the Padres so I'm with you on that game. This should be interesting.

As for the Mets the future looks bleak...one of these days might be a good time to try chasing the +RL.

[curious]

Good call with the Cubs. They're the one team I'd never bet against (just cause I grew up seeing them; can't bet against your boys. Only for.), For this game I actually leaned towards Pirates looking at recent and long term stats; Pirates had a definite edge. Take whatever you did for this game in particular today, and fine tune it there.

"Stats"-wise I'm with you on LAD; I think they have a slight edge; and then there is a gut feeling about the Padres so I'm with you on that game. This should be interesting.

As for the Mets the future looks bleak...one of these days might be a good time to try chasing the +RL.

Every game the Mets show an edge on the RL +1 1/2 according to $For / $Against using the current line, and every game they get blown out.

Same with the Blue Jays, every game they are a play and every game they get blown out.

There is a guy on here who runs a thread that tracks teams that are in a run drought, he uses % of scoreless innings to innings played over the last week or so. I may start filtering these plays with his list.

Or maybe I should just run $For / $Against for the past week for each team.