MLB - Monday, 7/30/18

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Sides Monday

Phillies +140 (5 Dimes)
Marlins +157 (Heritage)


YTD: 299-312-14, +12.31

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Monday

4 MLB Plays Monday

Phillies +140 (5 Dimes)
Marlins +157 (Heritage)
Marlins / Braves OVER 9 -105 (Heritage)
Brewers / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -105 (Heritage)

[TheGoldenGoose]

[LT Profits]

I do that a lot at +12 units while 13 games under .500! Not lately though, was +22 a week ago.

[jjgold]

sinking like the titanic

not good

[LT Profits]

sinking like the titanic

not good

Bright side: lots of guys would kill to be +12 right now.

[unde0087]

With you on the Marlins/Braves over. I snagged it at 8.5 last night, GL

[BiffTFinancial]

Bright side: lots of guys would kill to be +12 right now.

Great work, LT - keep choppin wood. Agree with both of your totals, waiting for umps.

[jjgold]

We don’t like the trend so we’re staying away from your plays until you turn it

[KVB]

4 MLB Plays Monday

Phillies +140 (5 Dimes)
Marlins +157 (Heritage)
Marlins / Braves OVER 9 -105 (Heritage)
Brewers / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -105 (Heritage)

It's early for the contrarian find to kick in but Miami is the most serious contender for me. I'm looking at the UNDER in that game though.

Philly is also on the radar, Price is cheap, let's see how it develops.

Good Luck LT

[LT Profits]

Philly is also on the radar, Price is cheap, let's see how it develops.

One man's "cheap" is another man's value, I have Nola rated significantly better than Price and end up with Boston only 54% (-117)

[dogman]

over 600 plays and plus money, hardly any cappers can do that, great job LT

[KVB]

One man's "cheap" is another man's value, I have Nola rated significantly better than Price and end up with Boston only 54% (-117)

Agreed, I meant from a public perspective.

We can see who's moving the line here.

Like I said, it is on my radar.

Get 'em LT.

[krk1030]

Can Philly score. Brutal last few days.

[snider]

What do you get on giants/padres? thanks. I wonder what your record is when the value is against a public team vs on them, i'm sure they hardly ever give value on Boston. I bet you could bust past that 20 unit mark. I think you play, or at least post strictly what the numbers dictate. Why would they give value on the Dodgers when the public loves the Machado trade? Padres are 31% in games against a left handed starter this year 10W-22L

[pilebuck13]

What do you get for a total on Boston philly game? 9 seems a bit high...what’s the deal?

[LT Profits]

What do you get on giants/padres? thanks. I wonder what your record is when the value is against a public team vs on them, i'm sure they hardly ever give value on Boston. I bet you could bust past that 20 unit mark. I think you play, or at least post strictly what the numbers dictate. Why would they give value on the Dodgers when the public loves the Machado trade? Padres are 31% in games against a left handed starter this year 10W-22L

I get Giants 54% (-117), which could hypothetically make them a play right now. But I hate the RLM.

[LT Profits]

What do you get for a total on Boston philly game? 9 seems a bit high...what’s the deal?

Seems fine to me,I get 9.4. Ballpark factors lend a boost.

[Dogball]

White sox a joke yesterday tough beat
Numbers formArizona todayplease ?

[Doogie M.D.]

White sox a joke yesterday tough beat
Numbers formArizona todayplease ?

What a let down. They definitely shoulda scraped out that win.
LT am i crazy to like the Rockies today?

[LT Profits]

White sox a joke yesterday tough beat
Numbers formArizona todayplease ?

I have Arizona HUGE at 71% (-245)
Humongous pitching mismatch with Rays about 20% above average and Perez an atrocious 25% below.

[LT Profits]

What a let down. They definitely shoulda scraped out that win.
LT am i crazy to like the Rockies today?

You are not crazy, I get St. Louis only 53% (-113).
Rockies are borderline play for me, resisting as of now.

[44 Mag]

Seems fine to me,I get 9.4. Ballpark factors lend a boost.

So you Love your boy Nola, who is outstanding THIS year, but you think 9 1/2 runs is correct for the game??? are you expecting Philly to score 8 and Boston 2 ????

[LT Profits]

So you Love your boy Nola, who is outstanding THIS year, but you think 9 1/2 runs is correct for the game??? are you expecting Philly to score 8 and Boston 2 ????

No, I actually get Boston 4.8, Phils 4.6. Remember, I have Red Sox 54%.

[smittian]

Thoughts on Twins today? Bieber coming off his worst start for Indians but Twins playing better at home than away. Pitching match-up seems fairly even overall.

[krk1030]

Thoughts on Seattle?

Houston lineup is really ugly lately with altuve and Correa out.

[smittian]

Thoughts on Seattle?

Houston lineup is really ugly lately with altuve and Correa out.

I was also curious on this one because am leaning towards Seattle with this one because they have been hitting better and the pitching match-up is fairly even in this one.

[krk1030]

I was also curious on this one because am leaning towards Seattle with this one because they have been hitting better and the pitching match-up is fairly even in this one.

Only concern is Paxton and his health. Was scratched last start hopefully good to go tonight.

[LT Profits]

Thoughts on Twins today? Bieber coming off his worst start for Indians but Twins playing better at home than away. Pitching match-up seems fairly even overall.

Nothing to see for me, I get Cleveland 53% (-113)
I still have "Justin" Bieber about 10% above average and "Carlos" Santana about 10% below.

[LT Profits]

Thoughts on Seattle?

Houston lineup is really ugly lately with altuve and Correa out.

I still get Houston 53% (-113), mainly because Cole is one of my top rated pitchers at around 35% above average. Paxton is great too though at nearly 30% above, I end up with Total of 6.5

[KVB]

The Contrarian Fund may challenge your Total play in Los Angeles, LT.

[KDF500]

Bright side: lots of guys would kill to be +12 right now.

Raises hand!

[BiffTFinancial]

Seems fine to me,I get 9.4. Ballpark factors lend a boost.

Nola's only had two away totals of 9+ in his career, both in 2017: 11 at Coors and 9 at StL. The game in StL was a 90+ degree day game with 15 mph wind out to LF, and vs Wainright in worst season of Waino's career (and total opened at 8' -110). Other than Coors and Wrigley (both Nola starts at Wrigley were with decent wind in), or maybe Chase with the roof open, no NL parks can approach Fenway's park factor. Plus, Philly gets a DH. Total is right on.

[ikid2groove415]

Bright side: lots of guys would kill to be +12 right now.

Good point