MLB - Thursday, 7/26/18

[LT Profits]

6 MLB Plays Thursday

White Sox / Angels UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
Mets +140 (Heritage)
Royals +238 (5 Dimes)
Royals +1.5 +125 (Heritage)
Dodgers / Braves UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)
Rangers +125 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 295-300-14, +20.28

[jjgold]

Royals could be your only winner along with Sox total

LT your in for a very long day

[5mike5]

Nice job so far this season LT

[2ndchance]

You find value in the rangers with colon pitching?

[LT Profits]

You find value in the rangers with colon pitching?

Obviously since they are one of my plays.

I have Oakland just 51% (-104)

[2ndchance]

Kind of was looking for a reason why lol. I see though Oakland 51%

[LT Profits]

Kind of was looking for a reason why lol. I see though Oakland 51%

Starters rate about even with both right around average, Cahill about 2% better. Bullpen favors Texas by about 3% and offensive splits favor Rangers by about 4%.

[Dogball]

LT. what you come up with for cubs please ?

[LT Profits]

LT. what you come up with for cubs please ?

I actually have Arizona slight favorite 51% (-104)

Chatwood is my second lowest rated qualified starting pitcher in baseball, ahead of only Gelato.

[Dogball]

Concur. They inching toward a play now ?

[LT Profits]

Concur. They inching toward a play now ?

No, line is moving toward D-Backs. There was never that much variance from my -104 to begin with.

[KVB]

KC and Texas, I'm heading that direction but haven't pulled the trigger.

Good Luck LT.

[hawkeye 16]

Wind is blowing out to right in Chicago. I'm gonna make a small play on the over. Especially with those pitchers.

[44 Mag]

I actually have Arizona slight favorite 51% (-104)

Chatwood is my second lowest rated qualified starting pitcher in baseball, ahead of only Gelato.

79

Lucas Giolito

CHW

20

20

109.1

101

76

74

64

68

7

8

0

0

-0.6

1.51

6.09 This Guy.

[SilverSpoon111]

BOL Today LT!

[ClippersSux]

Hey LT,
I noticed you wager at Heritage. Did you noticed today they released their baseball overnight lines (1,000 limits) ahead of BetOnline. Their typical overnight limits used to be 100. Wondering if this will be their standard practice.

[KVB]

Hey LT,
I noticed you wager at Heritage. Did you noticed today they released their baseball overnight lines (1,000 limits) ahead of BetOnline. Their typical overnight limits used to be 100. Wondering if this will be their standard practice.

[2daBank]

Royals could be your only winner along with Sox total

LT your in for a very long day

Sounds like he should be in for a monster day now.

[2daBank]

Starters rate about even with both right around average, Cahill about 2% better. Bullpen favors Texas by about 3% and offensive splits favor Rangers by about 4%.

Rangers have a pen edge over Oakland? No chance

[Regul8er]

Ya, Oakland has a major, major edge in the bullpen department.......its not even close.

It been pretty evident all season, particularly the last few head to head matchups.

[bballs84]

There is no chance the Rangers pen has edge over Oakland..

[LT Profits]

Hey LT,
I noticed you wager at Heritage. Did you noticed today they released their baseball overnight lines (1,000 limits) ahead of BetOnline. Their typical overnight limits used to be 100. Wondering if this will be their standard practice.

And they abruptly came down after being up for about an hour.

[cjpenn3]

What do you get for the side and pitching matchup for the Phillies/Reds and Twins/Red Sox?

[LT Profits]

Rangers have a pen edge over Oakland? No chance

Ya, Oakland has a major, major edge in the bullpen department.......its not even close.

It been pretty evident all season, particularly the last few head to head matchups.

There is no chance the Rangers pen has edge over Oakland..

Not the way the model rates pitchers. Remember, heavy emphasis on Ks and BBs. For the whole season, Oakland bullpen has a collective xFIP of 4.06. only marginally better than Texas at 4.14. But that is overall, so those figures included guys no longer in each pen. With current rosters, model has Texas slightly better as mentioned above.

[LT Profits]

What do you get for the side and pitching matchup for the Phillies/Reds and Twins/Red Sox?

Cincinnati 55% (-122)
Mahle slightly below average by about 3%, I am debuting Suarez 10% below

I tossed the Minnesota side for extreme variance as I only get Boston 51% (-104)
I have rather big pitching edge for Twins with Gibson slightly above average and Johnson about 15% below.

I found that I have saved money in the past by ignoring games with such enormous gaps, although a big gapper did come though a few days ago with these Twins over Toronto.

[RavensFan2k3]

How do you see the Orioles and Rays game? Aswell as the two pitchers?

[LT Profits]

How do you see the Orioles and Rays game? Aswell as the two pitchers?

Tampa Bay 51% (-104)
I have Cobb right at average, he is a good positive regressor candidate with an xFIP nearly 2 runs lower than his ERA. I am assuming Wood-Yarbrough for Rays, and that combination is also right at average.