Braves @ Marlins

[flabrah5]

Who ya got?

Teheran splits do not favor day games (5.12 era vs 3.15 at night).

Chen splits favor home games (10.47 era on the road vs 1.83 at home).

Lefties struggle against Chen at a .228 and 2 homers, while righties crush him with a .295 and 9 homers. Freeman, Markakis, and Inciarte aren't normal lefties, though.

I'm not normally betting over/unders, but that 8 looks nice given the above (nice as in going over 8 runs).

Thoughts? Comments? Leans?

BOL to all

[KANSAS24]

GO WITH THE BETTER TEAM
ATL

[2Shirts]

Marlins

[mets710]

Braves win fairly easy today.

[flakeandbake]

This is another interesting game given what's been happening in these situations. Last day game Braves played was at home vs the Reds (similar line -145) and they battled back and forth before Reds stole game late.

Very similar situation

[flakeandbake]

^last day game that occurred during the middle of the week

[flabrah5]

See we have a bit of a split opinion.

Anyone factoring in the pitchers and their respective trends / splits I mentioned above?

Teheran hates day games, Chen loves home games. Not a slight bias - numbers are very strong on both sides.

I took Braves last night and it felt too easy. Might have to go against the public here and take the Marlin's. The numbers and splits say Marlin's even though Braves are a better team. That said, this sport is about numbers, matchups, and .500 coin flips.

Anyone want to talk me out of Marlin's lean outside of Braves just being the better team (which I admit). I'm just having a hard time with who's on the mound and what they like.

[flakeandbake]

I am leaning the same exact way as you. But my concern is Braves lost at home in a similar line movement vs reds. My other concern is that the public got slaughtered last night (especially with Whitesox). This could be a trap game for the sharps and lay up for the squares to get back into the game

[flakeandbake]

And I was also on Braves last night. The line is clearly saying Marlins and Under is the play but I just feel like Braves win and it goes Over. This may actually lead me to taking marlins and under because I do well when I'm nervous over a sharp line

[Nick_U]

Marlins and over is the play here

[flakeandbake]

Explain why Over is the play?

[flabrah5]

Only way over happens is if Braves can get some runs. That lineup is scary and not hard to do, but Chen loves being at home. Freeman and Inciarte both have decent #s vs him at .500 avg a piece.

I will just go with Marlins FF and FG. Going to back Chen and hope he keeps his strong home numbers in tact.

Bol to you all. The more I think and doubt, the more I lose. Just backing numbers and splits and not thinking into anything else.

[flabrah5]

Solid start. 2-0 Marlin's. Let's go!

[flakeandbake]

Stfu. I can't stand guys that start dancing after the first inning

[flakeandbake]

I pounded the Marlins over the Nationals 3 weeks ago and they were up 9-0 after the 4th.. anyone remember the final score to that game? I do

[flakeandbake]

Forgot you're on the over.. If you took over and marlins sperate I can understand the celebration. Just need 2 more marlins runs

[flabrah5]

I know its early. And, yes, I'm on the over as well just smaller play. Have Marlins FF and FG. Ball is carrying today.

[flabrah5]

Forgot you're on the over.. If you took over and marlins sperate I can understand the celebration. Just need 2 more marlins runs

Ask and you shall receive. 4-1. I'm in the $$, hate me for dancing.

[krk1030]

Inciarte sucks.

[flabrah5]

Inciarte sucks.

Not when you back the other team

[Nick_U]

Bam! Marlins and the over looks like a big winner

[flabrah5]

[flakeandbake]

Congrats bro. Kinda wish that you answered my question on why you were on over when I asked this morning or if you flipped a magically coin. I explained my thought process

[Mike Huntertz]

Nice write, nice result!

[flakeandbake]

@Flabra5 - are you feeling similar about the Tigers tonight?. I'm feeling almost identical to the way I thought about the Marlins but worried since it's Pomeranz first game back and a lot of people think he sucks (which he pretty much does). Line opened at -180 and down to -145ish. This line also almost identical to the Mets vs Padres last night. I'm having a hard time believing that someone is driving down this line for the purpose of taking Pomeranz on the road last minute. Once again, I do better when I'm nervous abou A sharp line

[flabrah5]

@Flabra5 - are you feeling similar about the Tigers tonight?. I'm feeling almost identical to the way I thought about the Marlins but worried since it's Pomeranz first game back and a lot of people think he sucks (which he pretty much does). Line opened at -180 and down to -145ish. This line also almost identical to the Mets vs Padres last night. I'm having a hard time believing that someone is driving down this line for the purpose of taking Pomeranz on the road last minute. Once again, I do better when I'm nervous abou A sharp line

I absolutely love Zimmerman and the Tigers tonight. He has one of the best splits in Kansas City with a 1.48 ERA.

Did not look at Pomeranz and the Red Sox as that game has some serious weather issues. I stay away from those just in case it influences my read

So my plays are:

Cards/Reds over FF and FG
Dodgers/Phillies under FF
Tigers FF and FG

Parlay:
Tigers FF + Cards/Red over FF
Same two above but FG

Bol!!

[flabrah5]

Sorry, only parlayed FG cards/Reds o10.5 and Tigers FG. My book does not allow me to Parlay FF.

[flakeandbake]

Thanks. I had no idea there were weather issues. Still doesn't make sense about the line though but I guess much easier for a line to get pushed around when less big $ being bet on the game due to weather

[flabrah5]

Thanks. I had no idea there were weather issues. Still doesn't make sense about the line though but I guess much easier for a line to get pushed around when less big $ being bet on the game due to weather

Yeah I expect the game to definitely be delayed and most likely rained out and postponed.

[2Shirts]

Winner

Braves win fairly easy today.

[2Shirts]

That never works

GO WITH THE BETTER TEAM
ATL