Greetings SBR forum members. I posted MLB picks on here for a while last year but quit as I was still refining my process and hit a bad streak. I have been working on a system for 4 years and it appears to have been refined enough to be reasonably profitable. I have had a good beginning half of the season so I thought I would share my plays for the 2ndhalf. I won’t go into details of the analytics of my system, but I will give you some guidelines I follow:
1. I never bet favorites of -1.30 or higher. I don’t care if my system says a team should be a -2.00 favorite and they are -1.35 I won’t play them. IMO anyone who thinks they are going to be profitable long-term laying -1.50 or -2.00 or something like that is delusional.
2. I bet either a half-unit (most of the time) or a full unit (on occasion). None of this crap of getting behind and suddenly betting 5 or 10 or however many units to try and catch up.
3. I want any underdog I bet to have a reasonable chance to win. So if my system makes a dog at +1.40 but the line is +2.00 I am not betting on them even though there appears to be “value.” I generally won’t bet a dog that I rate worse than +1.10.
4. My analytics are based 95% on pitching. I bring batting into the equation for grading or eliminating plays but most of my evaluation is based on pitching.
5. I usually end up with 3 to 7 plays a day. I bet totals and sides.
6. Obviously there is NO sure thing, and like any prognosticator I have hot and cold streaks. A friend told me, “Part of being a winner is learning how to deal with losing.”
Here are my plays for tonight. The lines are what I got this morning at one of my outs (I personally have 5):
Good luck!
1. I never bet favorites of -1.30 or higher. I don’t care if my system says a team should be a -2.00 favorite and they are -1.35 I won’t play them. IMO anyone who thinks they are going to be profitable long-term laying -1.50 or -2.00 or something like that is delusional.
2. I bet either a half-unit (most of the time) or a full unit (on occasion). None of this crap of getting behind and suddenly betting 5 or 10 or however many units to try and catch up.
3. I want any underdog I bet to have a reasonable chance to win. So if my system makes a dog at +1.40 but the line is +2.00 I am not betting on them even though there appears to be “value.” I generally won’t bet a dog that I rate worse than +1.10.
4. My analytics are based 95% on pitching. I bring batting into the equation for grading or eliminating plays but most of my evaluation is based on pitching.
5. I usually end up with 3 to 7 plays a day. I bet totals and sides.
6. Obviously there is NO sure thing, and like any prognosticator I have hot and cold streaks. A friend told me, “Part of being a winner is learning how to deal with losing.”
Here are my plays for tonight. The lines are what I got this morning at one of my outs (I personally have 5):
| LINE | Units | |
| ATL @ MIA OVER 8 | -1.10 | 0.50 |
| MIA VS ATL | +1.13 | 1.00 |
| ARZ @ CHC | -1.05 | 0.50 |
| MIN @ TOR UNDER 9' | -1.10 | 0.50 |
| TOR VS MIN | -1.28 | 0.50 |
| DET @ KC | -1.07 | 0.50 |