Curious Plays Sun, June 28 YTD 11-5 +11.31 units

peterpan19 · 06-28-09, 04:41 AM

GL today...nice to see you back...

therber2 · 06-28-09, 09:19 AM

Curious, do you know the names of the players on those teams?

Great to have you back man.

JerseyShop101 · 06-28-09, 10:15 AM

Luv it even more when we're on the same plays!

MILW
TOR
COL

Thanks Curious!

jimbojpc · 06-28-09, 10:25 AM

curious BOL on your Card Today

curious · 06-28-09, 10:43 AM

Lottery Ticket Parlay

Here is a 6 team parlay. I like all these games a lot. Don't go crazy on this, it is just for fun.
Parlay +5500 $10 to win $550 (or in units .1 to win 5.5)

Cincinnati Reds +125
Boston Red Sox +100
Tampa Bay Rays -155
Los Angeles Angels +115
Colorado Rockies +110
Detroit Tigers -145

therber2 · 06-28-09, 11:17 AM

Curious, I'm going over your card. I like a lot of these picks. Are these based on hot-cold?

For example, the LAA game, and Rockies games don't look spectacular stats wise; however, the teams are on fire and the opposition is tanking. Lovin the Rockies btw.

curious · 06-28-09, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by therber2

Curious, I'm going over your card. I like a lot of these picks. Are these based on hot-cold?

For example, the LAA game, and Rockies games don't look spectacular stats wise; however, the teams are on fire and the opposition is tanking. Lovin the Rockies btw.

No, not hot - cold. I tracked hot - cold this year and it was terrible.

I'm using SportsDataBase.com and running queries for the situation of home/away and line range with low end at current line -20 and top end of current line +20. This tells us the $For and $Against for a given team either home/away at the current line. If the range I use does not yield enough games I increase the range a bit until I get a sample size that is meaningful.

I then add the $For to the $Against of the opposing team for both teams and compare the results. If it is too close to call I then look at the RL. If the RL does not yield a pick I then pass on that game.

I did these plays at 3 AM and some of the lines have shifted since then but I am not going to recalculate them.

A typical query would be "site=away and line <=-120 and line >=-160 and team."

This would list the records in terms of $For and $Against as well as Win Loss for all the teams when the team was away and the line was between -120 and -160. I sort on $For and this tells me at a glance what the good away favs are. I then do the same thing for the home teams for each line range.

I "pre-canned" these queries for each line range and home/away so I can just click on a link and get the results. My pre-canned ranges are:
100 to 140 inclusive
110 to 150 inclusive
120 to 160 inclusive
130 to 170 inclusive
140 to 180 inclusive
150 to 190 inclusive
160 to 200 inclsuve
>=200

And
-100 to -140 inclusive
-110 to -150 inclusive
-120 to -160 inclusive
-130 to -170 inclusive
-140 to -180 inclusive
-150 to -190 inclusive
-160 to -200 inclusive
<= -200

Here is the results of today's queries (done at 3 AM)
The two lines under the date/time show:
Team Line $For $Against $For+Opponent:$Against Pick

The Orioles were too close to call, then I ran them on the RL and they were a play. Mets were too close to call and I ran them on RL and they were a play. The 3 games with no pick were too close to call.

Jun 28 2009 1:05PM
Cincinnati Reds 125 420 -570 1505 Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Indians -145 -1205 1085 -1775
Jun 28 2009 1:05PM
Philadelphia Phillies 125 270 -340 -240 Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays -145 470 -510 130
Jun 28 2009 1:35PM
Boston Red Sox 100 465 -545 1240 Boston Red Sox
Atlanta Braves -120 -895 775 -1440
Jun 28 2009 1:35PM
Kansas City Royals -155 -420 380 -735 Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates 135 265 -315 645
Jun 28 2009 1:35PM
Florida Marlins 135 -595 555 -1135 Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays -155 470 -540 1025
Jun 28 2009 1:35PM
Washington Nationals +120 -150 +120 -85 Baltimore Orioles RL
Baltimore Orioles -140 -125 65 -5
Jun 28 2009 2:05PM
Detroit Tigers -145 365 -375 715 Detroit Tigers
Houston Astros 125 -410 350 -785
Jun 28 2009 2:05PM
Chicago Cubs -110 -320 240 -330
Chicago White Sox -110 -90 -10 150
Jun 28 2009 2:05PM
San Francisco Giants 135 -650 600 -755 Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers -155 75 -105 675
Jun 28 2009 2:15PM
Minnesota Twins 120 -415 335 -295
St Louis Cardinals -140 -230 120 105
Jun 28 2009 4:05PM
Colorado Rockies 110 840 -980 825 Colorado Rockies
Oakland Athletics -130 -85 -15 -1065
Jun 28 2009 4:10PM
Seattle Mariners 170 -190 170 -235
Los Angeles Dodgers -200 -15 -45 155
Jun 28 2009 4:10PM
Los Angeles Angels 115 -180 110 920 Los Angeles Angels
Arizona Diamondbacks -135 -1230 1100 -1120
Jun 28 2009 8:05PM
San Diego Padres 145 -405 335 -330 Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers -165 -115 75 220
Jun 28 2009 8:05PM
New York Yankees -130 -200 140 -230 New York Mets RL
New York Mets 110 10 -30 150

bettilimbroke999 · 06-28-09, 11:39 AM

Curious en fuego right now, will tail these picks hopefully streak continues

curious · 06-28-09, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by bettilimbroke999

Curious en fuego right now, will tail these picks hopefully streak continues

"En Fuego? You mean you are gay? OH MY GAWD!

therber2 · 06-28-09, 11:43 AM

Gotta be somewhere in about 10 minutes so I've gotta run, but I will definately go over that stuff later on. I know you've got top notch stuff as usual so I'll make sure to check this out in more depth. BOL today Curious.

cocknocker · 06-28-09, 11:52 AM

Wow! You are scientific with the shitty-o Curious, what's up bro! Just checkin' in on ya! How's things going? For me I am mired ina funk this year because of relief pitching. I have been assured that it has been this bad for a long time, but I guess it was my turn to find it out this year. I have capped games to a T and then some idiot form the pen come sin and gives up a three run dong or some old crazy shit...And what's more than that, I account for bullpen WHIP in my capping and f*ckers still can't get tree outs, lol! But I don't play games outside of my range either. The highest I will go is -135 in vigo, and if I see value on the play then i will just go ahead and take the RL. It has burned me this year with bullpens making three run leads into 1 run wins, but hey....I just can't pay -140 for a wager even if I am getting a run and a half. Because I figure if my team can hang, then I might as well get the + money. Enough about the wagering shit. I hope all is well for ya! Good to see you back on the threads.

Anyway, Aye-Aye Captain! Good luck good health and good fortune, mate!

cocknocker · 06-28-09, 11:53 AM

En fuego= on fire, lol!

curious · 06-28-09, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Wow! You are scientific with the shitty-o Curious, what's up bro! Just checkin' in on ya! How's things going? For me I am mired ina funk this year because of relief pitching. I have been assured that it has been this bad for a long time, but I guess it was my turn to find it out this year. I have capped games to a T and then some idiot form the pen come sin and gives up a three run dong or some old crazy shit...And what's more than that, I account for bullpen WHIP in my capping and f*ckers still can't get tree outs, lol! But I don't play games outside of my range either. The highest I will go is -135 in vigo, and if I see value on the play then i will just go ahead and take the RL. It has burned me this year with bullpens making three run leads into 1 run wins, but hey....I just can't pay -140 for a wager even if I am getting a run and a half. Because I figure if my team can hang, then I might as well get the + money. Enough about the wagering shit. I hope all is well for ya! Good to see you back on the threads.

Anyway, Aye-Aye Captain! Good luck good health and good fortune, mate!

If you are going to handicap bullpens you have to look at who pitched in the past week and who is likely to get the call in today's game and then look at that pitchers recent record as well as matchups vs opposing hitters, etc.

I think you are leaving money on the table not to look at lines above -130. Value is value wherever you find it. If a team is -200 and they should be -250 then I'll take that play. I only take Run Lines if a team's $For and $Against for the line and run line in that range show value. For example, the Giants as a fav are a great value on the RL this year. As a dog on the RL they suck. LOL. The Diamondbacks are a good value as a dog on the RL in certain situations. I guess they lose lots of 1 run games.

I find that using the $For and $Against on the line range eliminates the need to do a lot more indepth analysis. Like, I don't have to look up how many 1 run games a team has won/lost the $For on the RL will tell me that.

I probably should also do starting pitcher matchup analysis but for now I am only looking at $For / $Against.

ChuteBoxe · 06-28-09, 12:38 PM

Good luck today Curious.

j0hnnyv · 06-28-09, 01:49 PM

good luck today curious. nice to have you back pal

MILEHIGHMONSTERS · 06-28-09, 01:57 PM

i think u forgot a game..lol

therber2 · 06-28-09, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by curious

If you are going to handicap bullpens you have to look at who pitched in the past week and who is likely to get the call in today's game and then look at that pitchers recent record as well as matchups vs opposing hitters, etc.

I think you are leaving money on the table not to look at lines above -130. Value is value wherever you find it. If a team is -200 and they should be -250 then I'll take that play. I only take Run Lines if a team's $For and $Against for the line and run line in that range show value. For example, the Giants as a fav are a great value on the RL this year. As a dog on the RL they suck. LOL. The Diamondbacks are a good value as a dog on the RL in certain situations. I guess they lose lots of 1 run games.

I find that using the $For and $Against on the line range eliminates the need to do a lot more indepth analysis. Like, I don't have to look up how many 1 run games a team has won/lost the $For on the RL will tell me that.

I probably should also do starting pitcher matchup analysis but for now I am only looking at $For / $Against.

I agree with Curious here or at least play in this manner. I could give a rat's ass about price; more effort on the pick. CK, the logic is sound: record is irrelevent; come out on top cashwise. I think you'll rebound; you were just putting too much effort into starters. Things are already looking better.

Took me a while to understand this whole thing Curious; as always your technical skills are beyond most of us. Thanks for taking the time to explain the strategy. I have a question: could you translate -- "$For+Opponent:$Against Pick"?....In english

Some of us on the board are doing a records after losses study for a decade. Not complete yet. In a way it is a similar to the way you are looking at games now: For example, Team X has both a long term AND short term history of winning at +75% after loss of 1-3 runs, and last was a two game loss. That puts an edge on the pick right away with very minimal effort. The opposite should be a good game factor as well: team Y just lost by 8 runs and has both a long and short term history of winning at only 15% after a 7-8 run loss.

curious · 06-28-09, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by therber2

I have a question: could you translate -- "$For+Opponent:$Against Pick"?....In english

The queries run on SportsDatabase.com return headings. One of the headings is $For and $Against. $For means how much would I have won or lost if I bet on every game for Team X with the situation expressed in the query. Likewise, $Against tells me how much I would have won/lost if I bet against Team X in that situation. A situation is simply something like Day, Home, Line between -120 and -160.

So, given two teams they each have a $For and $Against. I'll use an example from today that was a rocking chair winner.
Cincinatti playing Away with a line between +105 and +145 won you $420 this year. Betting against Cinci in this case cost you $570.
Cleveland playing at Home with a line between -125 and -165 lost you $1205 this year. Betting against them in this case you won $1085.

To determine the edge take the $For for the Reds and add it to the $Against for the Indians, since we are looking at taking the Reds against the Indians. In this case it is $420 + $1085.
Now look at the Indians, If we take them, we are getting $-1025 and betting against the Reds we are getting $-570. For a total of $-1025 + $-570 = $-1595.

Compare Reds of $1085 vs Indians of $-1595 and Reds are the pick. I use a spreadsheet like this:
Team Line $For $Against $for+$against Pick
Cincinnati Reds 125 420 -570 1505 Reds
Cleveland Indians -145 -1205 1085 -1775

therber2 · 06-28-09, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by curious

The queries run on SportsDatabase.com return headings. One of the headings is $For and $Against. $For means how much would I have won or lost if I bet on every game for Team X with the situation expressed in the query. Likewise, $Against tells me how much I would have won/lost if I bet against Team X in that situation. A situation is simply something like Day, Home, Line between -120 and -160.

So, given two teams they each have a $For and $Against. I'll use an example from today that was a rocking chair winner.
Cincinatti playing Away with a line between +105 and +145 won you $420 this year. Betting against Cinci in this case cost you $570.
Cleveland playing at Home with a line between -125 and -165 lost you $1205 this year. Betting against them in this case you won $1085.

To determine the edge take the $For for the Reds and add it to the $Against for the Indians, since we are looking at taking the Reds against the Indians. In this case it is $420 + $1085.
Now look at the Indians, If we take them, we are getting $-1025 and betting against the Reds we are getting $-570. For a total of $-1025 + $-570 = $-1595.

Compare Reds of $1085 vs Indians of $-1595 and Reds are the pick. I use a spreadsheet like this:
Team Line $For $Against $for+$against Pick
Cincinnati Reds 125 420 -570 1505 Reds
Cleveland Indians -145 -1205 1085 -1775

Do you compare these two edge numbers in all situations (home-away, home-home, away-away). Point being, home and away may not be such an important factor.

This is brilliant Curious; before I suggest anything else let me just ask: how do you expect this to do? I know it has been doing well according to recent record, but have you backtracked if possible.

bettilimbroke999 · 06-28-09, 06:08 PM

Boston robbery, 1 run puts busts a 3-teamer, 6-teamer and ML bet

curious · 06-28-09, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by therber2

Do you compare these two edge numbers in all situations (home-away, home-home, away-away). Point being, home and away may not be such an important factor.

This is brilliant Curious; before I suggest anything else let me just ask: how do you expect this to do? I know it has been doing well according to recent record, but have you backtracked if possible.

I always use Home and Away and I don't try to figure out if it matters or not in a particular game. Do the Mets play the Yankees tougher in the Mets stadium than in the Yankees stadium? I don't know. I doubt if anyone knows.

Yes, I backtested this. The results are promising. There are a few things I have not decided on yet.

1. What ranges do I use for the lines? Right now I am using current line -20 and current line +20. But, I noticed that you can jiggle the range a bit and get totally different results. Some teams suck as small dogs and do great as big dogs. Being on either side of the dividing line can make a big difference.

I thought about just using dog and fav but I think there is a big difference between a line of -100 and a line of -170.

2. What line do I use? Opening line? Line at game time? Which book? The best line I can find? The Greek? Pinnacle?

3. Does Day vs Night make any difference?

4. Do I look at pitcher matchups at all? My original thought was that I dont' have to do that because the pitchers are reflected in the line.

5. Should I care about streaks? If the Phillies are +$500 as a small dog on the road BUT they have lost their last 3 games, should I care about that? Again, my original thought is that the books know that the team is on a streak too and the streak is reflected in the line.

6. Does temperature matter in a Day game in an open air park? What if a team of old guys is playing a team of young guys and it is 110 degrees in the shade? is the smart money on the young guys? The books know that the old guys are going to be passing out, so I assume that is already reflected in the line.

I can create a backtest that has amazing results by jiggling the above decisions and backfitting the test to the data. But, that doesn't prove anything. As of now, I have still not come up with the definitive answer on these questions.

For right now I am assuming that Day vs NIght does matter, that -20 and +20 is the best I can do on line range, that pitching matchups, streaks, and termperature are already calculated in the line.

As for the line I should use I am leaning toward the line right before game time. I lost a game today because I took the opening line and the line at game time gave a different pick.

Another question I can not find the answer for. What if a team has a line they have never had before? Like Texas was -220 the other night. The most juice they laid before that was like -165. How do you judge that line for them? We looked at this in college basketball and an unfamiliar line was a contrarian indicator for favs and a leading indicator for dogs.

therber2 · 06-28-09, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by curious

I always use Home and Away and I don't try to figure out if it matters or not in a particular game. Do the Mets play the Yankees tougher in the Mets stadium than in the Yankees stadium? I don't know. I doubt if anyone knows.

Yes, I backtested this. The results are promising. There are a few things I have not decided on yet.

1. What ranges do I use for the lines? Right now I am using current line -20 and current line +20. But, I noticed that you can jiggle the range a bit and get totally different results. Some teams suck as small dogs and do great as big dogs. Being on either side of the dividing line can make a big difference.

I thought about just using dog and fav but I think there is a big difference between a line of -100 and a line of -170.

2. What line do I use? Opening line? Line at game time? Which book? The best line I can find? The Greek? Pinnacle?

3. Does Day vs Night make any difference?

4. Do I look at pitcher matchups at all? My original thought was that I dont' have to do that because the pitchers are reflected in the line.

5. Should I care about streaks? If the Phillies are +$500 as a small dog on the road BUT they have lost their last 3 games, should I care about that? Again, my original thought is that the books know that the team is on a streak too and the streak is reflected in the line.

6. Does temperature matter in a Day game in an open air park? What if a team of old guys is playing a team of young guys and it is 110 degrees in the shade? is the smart money on the young guys? The books know that the old guys are going to be passing out, so I assume that is already reflected in the line.

I can create a backtest that has amazing results by jiggling the above decisions and backfitting the test to the data. But, that doesn't prove anything. As of now, I have still not come up with the definitive answer on these questions.

For right now I am assuming that Day vs NIght does matter, that -20 and +20 is the best I can do on line range, that pitching matchups, streaks, and termperature are already calculated in the line.

As for the line I should use I am leaning toward the line right before game time. I lost a game today because I took the opening line and the line at game time gave a different pick.

Another question I can not find the answer for. What if a team has a line they have never had before? Like Texas was -220 the other night. The most juice they laid before that was like -165. How do you judge that line for them? We looked at this in college basketball and an unfamiliar line was a contrarian indicator for favs and a leading indicator for dogs.

I'll give you my two cents for what it is worth. Don't take it as me telling you what to do; just considerations. I think that home away is a only relevant for certain teams or simply irrelevant, but perhaps worth as you say, jiggling. I have no statistical data to prove this other than a general feeling that the MLB lacks a certain hometown pride as it used to.

1. First of all it may be to your benefit to have less plays on the card. For ranges the only logic I see in this situation is to run all of the plays with several ranges, and immediately (systematically) throw out the ones that need to be "jiggled." At least until you can make some logic out of the plus minus 20 range.

2. Opening line or closing line; another variable that could be a science in itself. Two things here: books put the lines approximately where they should be from the start. Injuries, mistakes recounted, and general public consensus moves it from there. **A very important thing to think about though is the idea of underdog and favorite team awareness. Does a ball team look at their lines right before game time? I have no idea; I would think that they would simply look at whether they are the favorite or not the favorite, and that is it. I do know that there is an awareness at the very least.

3. Fireworks

-Temperature, and humidity. Weather.com tracks this (probably inaccurately). I'd say night games are more of a "show." You might find a correlation between night games and home teams.

4. The starting pitchers are definitely reflected strongly in the line. Sometimes you can get an edge looking at bullpen for the last few days, but that is usually taken into account as well as batting (which seems to flip flop with starting pitchers in line weight). What isn't....often at least? That is what every gambler wants to know.

5. Streaks....I have had the worst luck playing a streak of any kind. I have lost more bets with teams on streaks than any other type. I believe this is when the lines are most inaccurate as well.

6. I have used temperature and humidity for o/u plays. I think right here is a spot to get an edge. I may be wrong, but I feel as though the effect this could have on a game is greater than how much it is taken into account with the lines.

curious · 06-29-09, 09:19 AM

Summary....

5-8 -5.65 units

I didn't count the lottery play since it was .1 unit.

If Boston wins instead of loses we win the lottery. LOL

For some reason there isnt an edit button on the original post so I cannot update the win loss record.

Panekkkk · 06-29-09, 09:52 AM

Interesting suff curious ... Now I'm curious:

How do you limit the database to 2009 or just 2009/2008 etc.?
NM, "and season=2009"

All I have to say is wow ... Cubs suck:

Cubs as favorites of -160 to -200 would have lost you $3145 if you bet to win $100 on them as big home favs. On the flipside, they would have made you $2420 if you risked $100 against them :P

59-52 (0.50, 53.2%) -3145 2420 50-60-1 (0.32, 45.5%) -1550 495 Cubs

What lines does this database use? Opening? Closing? Covers?

I think you need to somehow look only at the last 2 years of data curious. It seems that a standard inquiry goes back 5 years or so. I can't find a way to combine 2008 and 2009, only to look at them separately but on the same page ("and season=2008,2009")

curious · 06-29-09, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Interesting suff curious ... Now I'm curious:

How do you limit the database to 2009 or just 2009/2008 etc.?
NM, "and season=2009"

All I have to say is wow ... Cubs suck:

Cubs as favorites of -160 to -200 would have lost you $3145 if you bet to win $100 on them as big home favs. On the flipside, they would have made you $2420 if you risked $100 against them :P

59-52 (0.50, 53.2%) -3145 2420 50-60-1 (0.32, 45.5%) -1550 495 Cubs

What lines does this database use? Opening? Closing? Covers?

I think you need to somehow look only at the last 2 years of data curious. It seems that a standard inquiry goes back 5 years or so. I can't find a way to combine 2008 and 2009, only to look at them separately but on the same page ("and season=2008,2009")

I use season=2009, I dont' care what happened last year.

I ran a query that gave me yesterday's games only, it looks like they use the closing line.

I can't tell what book they use because several books have the same lines. I'll email them and ask them.

Panekkkk · 06-29-09, 10:45 AM

Thanks for the heads up!

Curious: Any way to get more than 25 results? If for example I am simply looking at "line<=-200 and season=2009" it only returns the 25 most recent results and I can't seem to figure out how to expand the selection back to April. This is a great resource though, thanks :P

The lines are definitely rounded up to the nearest 5 cents (100, 105, 110, 115 etc.) and don't appear to be closing.

curious · 06-29-09, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Thanks for the heads up!

Curious: Any way to get more than 25 results? If for example I am simply looking at "line<=-200 and season=2009" it only returns the 25 most recent results and I can't seem to figure out how to expand the selection back to April. This is a great resource though, thanks :P

The lines are definitely rounded up to the nearest 5 cents (100, 105, 110, 115 etc.) and don't appear to be closing.

The lines are definitely not the opening lines. I compared the lines to the closing lines. Since I don't know what book they use I just looked to see if any of the books on SBR live lines had a closing line like that.

Whey do you think the lines they use are not closing lines?

i think if you put in a team name you will get all games for the season that match the query.

I don't run queries like you posed so I have never ran into the 25 results problem.

You can email the SportsDataBase.com support, they have a link on their home page.

The Killers people get their info from SportsDataBase.com, I think it is just another site from the same people who run SportsDataBase.

curious · 06-29-09, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

The lines are definitely rounded up to the nearest 5 cents (100, 105, 110, 115 etc.) and don't appear to be closing.

I found a Google group where the SportsDataBase.com guys discuss their site.

Here is the answer given to a question someone posed about which lines they use:

-----------------------------------------------------------------
From: WJB
Date: Sat, 20 Jun 2009 11:52:00 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: Line & Total Data

Joe .... What source do you use in determining your LINE and TOTAL
numbers in MLB? Also, how often are these numbers updated?

From: "Shaun Hess"
Date: Sat, 20 Jun 2009 12:13:30 -0700
Subject: Re: Line & Total Data

i have SEVERAL sources (over 25 casinos) both IN Vegas ANNNNNND
OFFSHORE,,,,i post the openers the day before and UPDATE them AT least once
the following day,,,,RUN LINES come from PINNACLE

--------------------------------

So, it looks like they don't use the opening or the closing line. They update the line at some point during the day but don't guarantee that to be the closing line. And they pick and choose from a variety of books.

I think that is just stupid.